Post Match Thread: Election 2017

[Prestwich_Blue]

Conference is not until early October (in Manchester, too) but I find it hard to see how she can last until then. Party is caught between Scylla and Charybdis; it loathes public displays of weakness and likes to get on with governing, but the only way around that is either to support her wholeheartedly (impossible with no majority) or ditch her (impossible with no majority).

I agree. They'll want to use conference to launch the new leader not destroy the old one.

 

[Vic]

Alastair Campbell, whose government got the Good Friday agreement signed in 1998, said Ms May was threatening the peace process by securing an alliance with one of the parties the Government is supposed to be mediating between.

Speaking on the BBC's Question Time, he said: "She is playing fast and loose, on Brexit, on Margaret Thatcher’s greatest achievement the single market and now Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s greatest achievement which is the peace in Northern Ireland.

"She is putting that at risk with a sordid, dangerous distasteful deal.

"We have a situation in the Northern Ireland right now where there has been a political crisis where the Government is the mediator with theIrish government between the DUP and Sinn Fein.

"How can our government be the mediator when the DUP are going to be part of our government?"

 

[CitizenTID]

It looks legally impossible for Tory to form a coalition with DUP as it'd be in breach of GFA so the only option to the Tories is that DUP vote in favour solution. Presume that means all 10 DUP MPs would have to fall in line.

If they are having "talks," that suggests the DUP want something for their vote. That is then in dodgy ground re: GFA too since DUP solely arguing for NI perks would not be power-sharing as NI is meant to be. So unless Sinn Fein are part of these talks, it seems legally dodgy ground to me. If the Tories/DUP can't manage an agreement it looks like Corbyn to be PM.

 

[1.618034]

It's looking more and more like another election IMO.

Scylla and Charybdis - either of them sounds a better bet than David Davies or Boris Johnson

Between the Devil and The DUP?

 

[CitizenTID]

What's required is people to realise the national sovereignty issue is settled under international law and we remain an integral part of the UK until the majority of the population of Northern Ireland decide otherwise. Now our politicians (if you can call them that) need to grow up and get down to the business of setting up a programme for government.
For the record, on Thursday I spoiled my vote as I find the policies of the 5 parties standing in my constituency abhorrent.

Not sure whether the unionist side would have had it at the time but just think it would have been more sensible to mitigate any potential violence if there was ever a change.

 

[BlueAnorak]

There is a huge statistical correlation between UKIP losses and Tory gains. Not one to one but more like 70/30 to the Tories. In areas where the Leave vote and Labour vote in 2015 were high, the Tories did particularly well. I'm no political analyst but I'd suggest that if there's now no clear blue water between the parties on Brexit, then voters who have moved from Labour to the Conservatives might well go back to Labour, given UKIP are now effectively finished.

It may be the case for Tory gains but it isn't the case for seats that the Tories failed or just failed to win. If it had been the case the Tories would have done significantly better in Northern England and the Midlands. In seat after seat slightly more UKIPers went back to Labour than went to the Conservatives.

 

[1.618034]

All this is yet more evidence of may being short-sighted and making bad , ill-thought out decisions.

She'll be gone within weeks and we'll have to have another GE.

Why the fuck did she initiate Article 50 and THEN go for a GE!? It's like Russian Roulette in reverse... shooting yourself in the head before spinning the fucking barrel!?

Once that had happened she should've, as she said she would on 7 occasions, just got on with it!

Even as a Labour voter, I would've preferred that over where we are now.

What an utter shambles this has been from the Tories since 2015.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

It's looking more and more like another election IMO.

Between the Devil and The DUP?

This alliance is doomed from the word go for me. No party should be relying on a marginal party with 10 MPs. It's ridiculous.

I'm not sure what another election would achieve though either although I assume there would be a lot of tactical voting going on now the results are known. I'm pretty sure for example that in Southport, the Labour vote would hop over to the Lib Dems to allow them to retake the seat.

I had a look at the results in more detail today and the swing from C to L in relatively safe seats is pretty high. Plenty of marginals now.

This is all a bit of a shambles now to be honest. Cameron called the Brexit vote and buggered off now May is likely to bugger off at some point having called an unnecessary election (at a cost of £130m- enough money to fund the wage of 5000 police officers for a year)

 

[Gabriel]

It looks legally impossible for Tory to form a coalition with DUP as it'd be in breach of GFA so the only option to the Tories is that DUP vote in favour solution. Presume that means all 10 DUP MPs would have to fall in line.

If they are having "talks," that suggests the DUP want something for their vote. That is then in dodgy ground re: GFA too since DUP solely arguing for NI perks would not be power-sharing as NI is meant to be. So unless Sinn Fein are part of these talks, it seems legally dodgy ground to me. If the Tories/DUP can't manage an agreement it looks like Corbyn to be PM.

As long as the Conservative Party can guarantee that all of its MPs will toe the line, then the DUP can even abstain to oblige; it does not necessarily have to be seen to vote in favour of something for it to pass. Whether the Conservative Party can be united is a moot point.

 

[Damocles]

There is a huge statistical correlation between UKIP losses and Tory gains. Not one to one but more like 70/30 to the Tories. In areas where the Leave vote and Labour vote in 2015 were high, the Tories did particularly well. I'm no political analyst but I'd suggest that if there's now no clear blue water between the parties on Brexit, then voters who have moved from Labour to the Conservatives might well go back to Labour, given UKIP are now effectively finished.

The clear water is that Labour want to keep single market access and the Customs Union while the Tories just keep saying Brexit is Brexit.

In my view there's not enough leeway being had for Remain voters who held their nose and voted Labour in the hopes that they could keep single market access.

Unless I've spectacularly misjudged this and Jeremy has reignited the socialist flame of Kensington.

These are "Brexit only" Labour voters. They're not going to be interested in the revolution, they vote Lab to keep their jobs and will jump straight back to the Tories once that single issue is decided. I think relying on them to stay with Labour in a count while adding new voters is extremely dangerous.

 

[Gabriel]

This alliance is doomed from the word go for me. No party should be relying on a marginal party with 10 MPs. It's ridiculous.

I'm not sure what another election would achieve though either although I assume there would be a lot of tactical voting going on now the results are known. I'm pretty sure for example that in Southport, the Labour vote would hop over to the Lib Dems to allow them to retake the seat.

I had a look at the results in more detail today and the swing from C to L in relatively safe seats is pretty high. Plenty of marginals now.

This is all a bit of a shambles now to be honest. Cameron called the Brexit vote and buggered off now May is likely to bugger off at some point having called an unnecessary election (at a cost of £130m- enough money to fund the wage of 5000 police officers for a year)

Just out of interest, and a genuine question, at what point does it cease to be ridiculous? Is it a question of arithmetic (Liberal Democrats had 57 seats in 2010) or the geographical area which the marginal party represents?

 

[worsleyweb]

I agree. They'll want to use conference to launch the new leader not destroy the old one.

Who is the obvious candidate to take over? Don't see a politician as talented as David Cameron.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It looks legally impossible for Tory to form a coalition with DUP as it'd be in breach of GFA so the only option to the Tories is that DUP vote in favour solution. Presume that means all 10 DUP MPs would have to fall in line.

If they are having "talks," that suggests the DUP want something for their vote. That is then in dodgy ground re: GFA too since DUP solely arguing for NI perks would not be power-sharing as NI is meant to be. So unless Sinn Fein are part of these talks, it seems legally dodgy ground to me. If the Tories/DUP can't manage an agreement it looks like Corbyn to be PM.

If you think the Lib Dems will back McDonell's La La Land economics you really have been living on the moon during the general election campaign they were very clear.
No coalition. No mega-rise in Corp Tax. No hammering of the City that the trading tax would deliver.
If May's talks with the DUP fail then it's another general election.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Just out of interest, and a genuine question, at what point does it cease to be ridiculous? Is it a question of arithmetic (Liberal Democrats had 57 seats in 2010) or the geographical area which the marginal party represents?

Bit of both for me.

 

[Damocles]

Who is the obvious candidate to take over? Don't see a politician as talented as David Cameron.

Cameron, like Blair, was a once in a generation anomaly in terms of his talent.

 

[The perfect fumble]

If you think the Lib Dems will back McDonell's La La Land economics you really have been living on the moon during the general election campaign they were very clear.
No coalition. No mega-rise in Corp Tax. No hammering of the City that the trading tax would deliver.
If May's talks with the DUP fail then it's anotger general election.

All Labour would need in the unlikely scenario where Corbyn goes to see the Queen, is a Queen's speech that'll unite the disparate group he's assembled, so the first Queen's speech will include only those things that the group agrees on, it won't be very exciting, but he'll be in No 10 and then all sorts of possibilities open up.

 

[the plasterer]

As I don't understand politics, am I correct in assuming that the torys won but lost and labour lost but won??

 

[The perfect fumble]

Cameron, like Blair, was a once in a generation anomaly in terms of his talent.

Cameron is going down as one of the worst Prime Ministers we've ever had.

 

[The perfect fumble]

As I don't understand politics, am I correct in assuming that the torys won but lost and labour lost but won??

Yes, in the court of public opinion.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Cameron, like Blair, was a once in a generation anomaly in terms of his talent.

I am Labour through and through but I thought Cameron was good and had experienced life events that made him understand people more despite his obvious wealth and privileged background.