Premier League Champions Calculation

[Gillespie]

Needed to be Champions - 84
Points to be dropped at home - 5 (1 defeat, 1 draw)
Points needed away from home - 28 (8 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat)

Not much room for error!

I can't see us going away to United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Newcastle and losing only one of them and then losing no other away games at all. We will lose more than 1 away I feel.

I think the analysis here is wrong in picking out 84 pts as a minimum needed to win the PL. I think the best way of looking at it is how many points is the runner up likely to get? Apart from the odd exception, most runners up rarely get more than 78 points, meaning 79 points will be enough, though the winning margin is likely to be higher than 1 point.

Given the competitiveness of the league so far and in view of what points the runner up will get, I'd be inclined to think 81 points should be enough.

 

[travelman]

Needed to be Champions - 84
Points to be dropped at home - 5 (1 defeat, 1 draw)
Points needed away from home - 28 (8 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat)

Not much room for error!

I can't see us going away to United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Newcastle and losing only one of them and then losing no other away games at all. We will lose more than 1 away I feel.

I think the analysis here is wrong in picking out 84 pts as a minimum needed to win the PL. I think the best way of looking at it is how many points is the runner up likely to get? Apart from the odd exception, most runners up rarely get more than 78 points, meaning 79 points will be enough, though the winning margin is likely to be higher than 1 point.

Given the competitiveness of the league so far and in view of what points the runner up will get, I'd be inclined to think 81 points should be enough.

I actually think Chelsea will get 85 points looking at there remaining games home and away so if we want to win it then that's what we will need. i know they say there are no easy games but there remaining hard games away are city, Liverpool, hull and villa based on them being in the top half of the table the rest are all teams you would expect them to beat.
I have them losing 2 away city & Liverpool and drawing 2/3 at home utd, Everton and Arsenal.
Now i know that its not as easy as that or we would all be millionaires but that's how i see it.

 

[Statt0]

Needed to be Champions - 84
Points to be dropped at home - 5 (1 defeat, 1 draw)
Points needed away from home - 28 (8 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat)

Not much room for error!

I can't see us going away to United, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Newcastle and losing only one of them and then losing no other away games at all. We will lose more than 1 away I feel.

I think the analysis here is wrong in picking out 84 pts as a minimum needed to win the PL. I think the best way of looking at it is how many points is the runner up likely to get? Apart from the odd exception, most runners up rarely get more than 78 points, meaning 79 points will be enough, though the winning margin is likely to be higher than 1 point.

Given the competitiveness of the league so far and in view of what points the runner up will get, I'd be inclined to think 81 points should be enough.

Wrong. In 7 of the last 10 seasons the runner-up has finished with 83 points or higher.

 

[CatMan]

Just done an average of the last 10 seasons.

________________1st 2nd 3rd 4th
12/13___________89 78 75 73
11/12___________89 89 70 69
10/11 ___________80 71 71 68
09/10 __________ 86 85 75 70
08/09___________90 86 83 72
07/08 ___________87 85 83 76
06/07 ___________89 83 68 68
05/06 ___________91 83 82 67
04/05 ___________95 83 77 61
03/04 ___________90 79 75 60

Ave ___________ 88.6 82.2 75.9 68.4

Quite shocked that the average winning total is quite so high. I suppose we could say that the balance of probability is that 86 points can only be bettered once and matched once by the 2nd place team in ten years so 86 looks a fair bet for the title.

What is shocking though is how did we let the scum only get 80 points in 10/11 and still win the league by 9 points! On 3 of the 10 years that 80 points would have only got them 4th place.

My bet is it could well look similar to 07/08 season with 3 teams well into the mid 80 points.

What is also noticeable and proof of the best teams getting better and more consistent is the amount of points the 4th place team achieves now. Hard to believe that 60 and then 61 points could get 4th place 10 years ago.

 

[akcity]

We can use all the stats in the world but that won't tell you how THIS seasons games will pan out. With anyone seemingly capable of beating anyone I think that this year is going to be harder than ever to even try and predict.

Maybe when we get to March it might have taken some shape and might be easier to predict. Until then, the only thing that is for certain is that to win the league you will need +1 goal diff, or +1 point more than 2nd place ;)

 

[CitizenTID]

Thanks for tempting fate and relegating us.

 

[aguero93:20]

Thanks for tempting fate and relegating us.

its alright, we waited till we got 40 points to start the thread :)

 

[Cobwebcat]

There are quite a few sites that run end of season predicted tables and they are generally quite accurate. They are based on current team strength, current points and the difficulty of the remaining games.
The most accurate will update soon so ill post it when it does but the others already have and on average 80 points wins the league.

OK here is the end of year table best estimate which was published today:

Going to the last game...we win by one point!!

Predicted Rank/ Team and ELO rating/ Curr Matches/ Curr Points/ Pred Points/ League Win %

1 Manchester City (3672) 20 44 81 39.2%
2 Arsenal (3553) 20 45 80 34.3%
3 Chelsea (3592) 20 43 79 22.2%
4 Tottenham Hotspur (3305) 20 37 70 1.4%
5 Manchester United (3637) 20 34 70 1.1%
6 Liverpool (3090) 20 39 68 1.2%
7 Everton (3129) 20 38 68 0.7%
8 Newcastle United (2672) 20 33 57 0.0%
9 Southampton (2338) 20 27 47 0.0%
10 Aston Villa (2363) 20 23 43 0.0%
11 Stoke City (2411) 20 22 43 0.0%
12 Swansea City (2408) 20 21 42 0.0%
13 Hull City (2028) 20 23 41 0.0%
14 West Bromwich Albion (2374) 20 21 41 0.0%
15 Fulham (2326) 20 19 38 0.0%
16 Norwich City (2232) 20 20 38 0.0%
17 Cardiff City (2083) 20 18 38 0.0%
18 West Ham United (2233) 20 15 33 0.0%
19 Crystal Palace (1844) 20 17 32 0.0%
20 Sunderland (2190) 20 14 32 0.0%

http://www.euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp

 

[aguero93:20]

There are quite a few sites that run end of season predicted tables and they are generally quite accurate. They are based on current team strength, current points and the difficulty of the remaining games.
The most accurate will update soon so ill post it when it does but the others already have and on average 80 points wins the league.

OK here is the end of year table best estimate which was published today:

Going to the last game...we win by one point!!

Predicted Rank/ Team and ELO rating/ Curr Matches/ Curr Points/ Pred Points/ League Win %

1 Manchester City (3672) 20 44 81 39.2%
2 Arsenal (3553) 20 45 80 34.3%
3 Chelsea (3592) 20 43 79 22.2%
4 Tottenham Hotspur (3305) 20 37 70 1.4%
5 Manchester United (3637) 20 34 70 1.1%
6 Liverpool (3090) 20 39 68 1.2%
7 Everton (3129) 20 38 68 0.7%
8 Newcastle United (2672) 20 33 57 0.0%
9 Southampton (2338) 20 27 47 0.0%
10 Aston Villa (2363) 20 23 43 0.0%
11 Stoke City (2411) 20 22 43 0.0%
12 Swansea City (2408) 20 21 42 0.0%
13 Hull City (2028) 20 23 41 0.0%
14 West Bromwich Albion (2374) 20 21 41 0.0%
15 Fulham (2326) 20 19 38 0.0%
16 Norwich City (2232) 20 20 38 0.0%
17 Cardiff City (2083) 20 18 38 0.0%
18 West Ham United (2233) 20 15 33 0.0%
19 Crystal Palace (1844) 20 17 32 0.0%
20 Sunderland (2190) 20 14 32 0.0%

http://www.euroclubindex.com/asp/leagueodds.asp

nah we'll be 7 clear after 36 games and rest players for the cl and fa cup finals ;)

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

The most important month of this season will be March :

- Arsenal have got a very tough set of matches (lots of six pointers and a couple of tricky away) for the record I predict that this is when they'll fall away

- Our month of March isn't much better TBH and it'll be a make or break month for us as well

- Chelsea's March is pretty straight forward relatively speaking


It'll all be won and lost in March for me - BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH. Still think we'll sneak it though - 86pts total and top goal difference; Chelsea runners up with 86/85 - ALL just my opinion obviously