Decided to do our head to heads on games we've played, so Arsenal comes out as this:
City P12 W10 D0 L2 GS: 41 GC: 16 GD: +25 Pts: 30.
Arsenal P12 W9 D2 L1 GS: 28 GC: 13 GD: +15 Pts: 29.
So we're 2 points ahead on a run of games that was West Ham(A), West Brom(A), Spurs(H), Swansea(A), Sunderland(A), Norwich(H), Liverpool(H), Hull(H), Fulham(A), Everton(H), Cardiff(A) as well as our home game v them, so taking that out they'd be 2 points ahead, but to even that up points wise they'd have to beat us in the return game.
Which means from the 9 games we've played that they haven't we achieved.
P8 W4 D2 L2 GS: 17 GC: 8 GD: +9 Pts: 14.
So we've dropped 10 points the run of games that is Swansea(H), Southampton(A), Stoke(A), Newcastle(H), Man Utd(H), Palace(H), Aston Villa(A) and Chelsea(A), so you could see that as either an opportunity for Arsenal to get an advantage on us or some equally as tough games.
Meanwhile the 8 games they've played they've achieved:
P8 W5 D1 L2 GS: 11 GC: 5 GD: +6 Pts: 16.
That run of games is Villa(H), Cardiff(H), Chelsea(H), Palace(A), Man Utd(A), Newcastle(A), Southampton(H), Stoke(H). So they've dropped 8 points in a run of 5 home games, and it shows the importance of winning home games that you should like Villa which they lost, which is a chance to claw back some points. We have to go away and keep winning, all 3 of them are games we should look to win, and in reality, if we want to be champs we should be nailing 24 from 24 in that period.
Games neither of us have played: Everton(A), Fulham(H), Liverpool(A), Norwich(A), Sunderland(H), Spurs(A), West Brom(H), West Ham(H). 3 tricky away games in there that could be the difference between title winners and CL qualifiers...
So in conclusion I think they have the slightly tougher run because they've had Southampton, Stoke, Chelsea at home whereas we've been to them, so we'll see if they do any better, particularly adding in the CL and the 3 tough away games we both have to play.
Meanwhile in terms of Chelsea here's our head to head in games we've played:
City P9 W5 D2 L2 GS: 14 GC: 7 GD: +7 Pts: 17.
Chelsea P9 W8 D0 L1 GS: 21 GC: 9 GD: +12 Pts: 24.
So Chelsea are 7 points better off on same games played, which were West Ham(A), Swansea(H), Sunderland(A), Stoke(A), Liverpool(H), Hull(H), Crystal Palace(H), Southampton(A) and the game between us at Stamford Bridge, showing that it was a costly error at the end of that game and that we must win the return fixture. They have also gone and got results at Sunderland and So'ton and whilst losing at Stoke we could only draw so didn't really gain much back.
For us to be ahead we must have done better in the fixtures we've played that they haven't, which were:
City P11 W9 D0 L2 GS: 44 GC: 17 GD: +27 Pts: 27.
Those games were West Brom(A), Spurs(H), Swansea(A), Norwich(H), Newcastle(H), Fulham(A), Everton(H), Cardiff(A), Aston Villa(A), Arsenal(H), Man Utd(H). Those slips at Cardiff and Villa may prove costly but Chelsea to match us would have to win those to afford not winning 2 of their big home games, there are a lot of big ties in there but Chelsea still haven't suffered a home league defeat under Jose so they must feel confident. In comparison:
Chelsea P11 W5 D4 L2 GS: 17 GC: 10 GD: +7 Pts: 19.
Those games were West Brom(H), Spurs(A), Southampton(H), Norwich(A), Newcastle(A), Man Utd(A), Fulham(H), Everton(A), Cardiff(H), Aston Villa(H), Arsenal(A).
So they've had a much tougher run than us especially away, dropping 14 possible points. Their biggest slip was probably at home to West Brom, but they have a chance to improve on our tally by beating Cardiff and Villa away which we failed to do.
Games neither of us have played: West Ham(H), Sunderland(H), Liverpool(A), Hull(A), Crystal Palace(A). So it could come down to some tricky aways.
If I look at Arsenal's run-in I reckon they may get 35 points, which would leave them on 80 points. Chelsea I reckon could get 42 points, which would take them to 85 points, leaving us needing 41 or 42 depending on GD, which would mean we would have to win every home game (27) and getting 5 wins away, meaning 5 wins from Spurs, Everton, Arsenal, United, Norwich, Palace, Hull, Liverpool, Newcastle, meaning essentially we have to go to a big boy and win and beat the Geordies, Norwich, Palace and Hull.
Either way I think it will be extremely tight and probably go down to the last day, as I don't think Chelsea are going to do much worse if not better than us on the fixtures we've played that they haven't, I'd make them favourites 2bh.
