How does Raheem Sterling score against Ronaldo and Messi at 20?
Sean Ingle
-
Going into Sunday’s game at Stoke City, Liverpool’s Raheem Sterling has scored 18 goals in 95 games and 14 assists in his Premier League career.
Indeed, only Eden Hazard and Mesut Özil posted better chance creation numbers at the same age. And remember, Sterling did this in a Liverpool side that struggled to get past 50 Premier League goals. Last season they scored 101.
Admittedly, Sterling isn’t quite at the very top table when you rank players based on their goals and assists by the age of 20.
Lionel Messi stands alone (he was scoring nearly three goals every four games even then) with Hazard and Arjen Robben the next best, albeit in the weaker Ligue 1 and Eredivisie. But Sterling’s numbers either match up, or are better than, everyone else in his position.
The comparisons with Sterling and Ronaldo at 20 are also worth exploring. At that age Ronaldo was not the goalscoring terminator he is now. According to Opta, he had played 64 Premier League games, scoring nine goals (0.2 per 90 minutes) and creating eight assists (0.18 per 90 minutes). Of course these numbers don’t tell you everything. Ronaldo was already an immense talent. He had starred in an FA Cup final and had a decent Euro 2004. But at 20 his raw numbers weren’t any better than Sterling’s. He certainly wasn’t a world beater.
There are other caveats, too. Young players mature at different rates, and past performance is not always a guarantee of future success. But as Omar Chaudhuri, the head of football intelligence at
21st Club points out, Sterling’s numbers have not been inflated by unsustainable hot streaks, which therefore makes what we have seen so far a decent indicator of what will happen from now on.
Chaudhuri, who works with several top European clubs, also makes another point. When it comes to highly rated young players, the transfer market has often got it right. He points to the list of the 25 most expensive under-23 signings in history. The top five? Neymar, James Rodríguez, Gianluigi Buffon, Rio Ferdinand and Sergio Agüero. Wayne Rooney, Fernando Torres (from Atlético Madrid to Liverpool), Hazard, Robben and Ronaldinho are also on the list.
There are duds in there too – Andy Carroll for one. But there are far fewer mistakes than in the list of big-money transfers from 23-30, which includes Kaká’s transfer to Real Madrid. Torres’s move to Chelsea, Gaizka Mendieta’s move to Lazio and many other flops.
As Chaudhuri puts it: “It’s also interesting that a lot of prodigies in Sterling’s position – Ronaldo, Hazard, Mata, Bale, Özil – were at least 21 before they made their first big-money move, which tells us a couple of things. First, that clubs are already willing to spend big on Sterling – and probably have been for a year, so since he’s been 19 – reflects his ability and potential. And second that his value is likely to be nowhere near its peak.”
Does this mean Sterling will develop into one of the best players in the world? We can’t be certain. But we can say this. There is an enormous amount to like about his football already and the odds are that he will get much better.
© 2015 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.
