I agree with your shape, logic and formation. For me, though,it's Maicon at right back and aguero/balotelli in for nasri in that left sided role. I could live with zab at right back because it isn't a game where his lack of attacking ability will matter hugely. But I believe nasri to be totally unsuitable for this game. He's too soft, not direct enough. We need to be able to create chances through one touch attacking play, and his cautious passing will lose us any momentum we can pick up.
Yaya being advanced, and silva next to him, are the key here. I can just see mario scoring a wonder goal for some reason too, although is Sergio is available he'd get my nod.
Please no kolorov at left back, and please no 352. And please no yaya in the holding role. They are the three key points for me.