Reform UK Party Limited Company

Don't matter what reform offer Labour will be the government for at least the next 10 years when they win it..

Either conservative will end up being the 3d party or just disappear and reform will be the 2nd main party or reform will disappear..
 
waspish said:
Don't matter what reform offer Labour will be the government for at least the next 10 years when they win it..

Either conservative will end up being the 3d party or just disappear and reform will be the 2nd main party or reform will disappear..
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Should be, I agree, but given how spectacularly the Conservatives have managed to lose what appeared to be an insurmountable two-term majority, one can never tell.
 
Gabriel said:
Should be, I agree, but given how spectacularly the Conservatives have managed to lose what appeared to be an insurmountable two-term majority, one can never tell.
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It seems hard to imagine now but I think a second term won’t be a shoo-in for Labour given the state of what they’ll inherit- they’ll become unpopular quite quickly because they’re going to have to do some really tough things. The Lib - Dems may benefit and the current Tories will be destroyed in the aftermath of this election. Whatever happens it will be fascinating.
 
Rory Bluelow said:
It seems hard to imagine now but I think a second term won’t be a shoo-in for Labour given the state of what they’ll inherit- they’ll become unpopular quite quickly because they’re going to have to do some really tough things. The Lib - Dems may benefit and the current Tories will be destroyed in the aftermath of this election. Whatever happens it will be fascinating.
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Impossible to predict, for sure.
 
waspish said:
Don't matter what reform offer Labour will be the government for at least the next 10 years when they win it..

Either conservative will end up being the 3d party or just disappear and reform will be the 2nd main party or reform will disappear..
Click to expand...

I'd agree that Labour have a very good chance of at least two terms, but there's a lot more volatility in voting these days, which means it's not guaranteed. Up till the late 80s, only about 20% of people changed their vote election to election. That jumped in the 90s, and in the 2017 election, was well over 40%. With Reform this time, I'd expect that to go even higher, so you have a huge amount of people who don't vote tribally, and that makes 10 years a but trickier.

I'd be amazed if Reform do take over the the Tories though. Reform voters are significantly more extreme in their views - they're the right wing of the right wing. Never say never, as I know from my daughter that Farage does a lot of tiktoks aimed at young people, where he tones down the right wing stuff dramatically, so he may be able to move a little to the centre, but I'm not convinced.

I think it's more likely that the Tories will gradually take votes from the centre, than more Tories head rightwards.
 
waspish said:
Don't matter what reform offer Labour will be the government for at least the next 10 years when they win it..

Either conservative will end up being the 3d party or just disappear and reform will be the 2nd main party or reform will disappear..
Click to expand...
It depends how Labour handle actual power and certainly how Starmer tempers the membership. They're still fighting on a war election footing but the war is basically won so they need to start planning policy very quickly.

The election itself has echoes of 1997 where the Tories similarly imploded. Blair went on to perhaps be the best modern PM we've ever had. Will Starmer do the same? I'm not quite sure.

I don't think that Reform will exist in a few months. All that is going to happen is Farage will win his seat and he'll then be very well placed to pressure a pact with the Tories. Farage then becomes the opposition for the next few years, he'll likely then quit as a suitable leader is sought with the same values for the next election.
 
bluenova said:
I'd agree that Labour have a very good chance of at least two terms, but there's a lot more volatility in voting these days, which means it's not guaranteed. Up till the late 80s, only about 20% of people changed their vote election to election. That jumped in the 90s, and in the 2017 election, was well over 40%. With Reform this time, I'd expect that to go even higher, so you have a huge amount of people who don't vote tribally, and that makes 10 years a but trickier.

I'd be amazed if Reform do take over the the Tories though. Reform voters are significantly more extreme in their views - they're the right wing of the right wing. Never say never, as I know from my daughter that Farage does a lot of tiktoks aimed at young people, where he tones down the right wing stuff dramatically, so he may be able to move a little to the centre, but I'm not convinced.

I think it's more likely that the Tories will gradually take votes from the centre, than more Tories head rightwards.
Click to expand...
There must be the factor of Farage having a heart attack too. He hardly looks after himself and will be 65 in 2030.
 
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