Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Blue Maverick]

The R majority is so small that they need the MAGA wing to vote for every single thing they want to do to pass a republican bill.

The MAGA wing do not want any more going to Ukraine, so the first thing they will do is they will tell McCarthy and his traditional republicans that if they start tabling more support bills for Ukraine, they will boycott votes of other republican policies.

So the R’s will have to choose between advancing their political goals or helping Ukraine and they’ll choose self interest every time.

Not just that, as part of their “negotiations” (blackmail) to get McCarthy elected speaker, he changed the rules of the house so that all it takes is ONE member to call a motion to vacate and trigger vote on removing the speaker.

So if McCarthy ever crosses the MAGA lot, they trigger a vote to remove him, vote with the Democrats to remove him, and then we go back to the situation 2 weeks ago where there’s vote after vote after vote to elect a speaker which they can’t do without the MAGA bloc, and so they have to concede everything to them.

That is assuming that not tabling more aid to Ukraine was not a part of the secret negotiations to get McCarthy elected 2 weeks ago, which it could easily have been given Gaetz and MTG were laughing about how they were scratching their heads to think of more things for McCarthy to promise them in return for their votes.


So sorry to say this, but they are in control, not Kevin McCarthy and the “normal” republicans.

That’s fucked up I didn’t know it was that bad, the USA is fucked then, unless Biden just uses executive orders for everything, can he even do that?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

....and as a result, this war and the slaughter will continue until either Russia prevails, or Ukraine loses the support of its benefactors.

Given that Ukraine has consistently won on the battlefield since the first couple of weeks of the war, and Russia is becoming weaker by the day, this is very, very far from the foregone conclusion you suggest.

"This war will continue until Russia can no longer sustain its losses" would be my opinion.

 

[domalino]

That’s fucked up I didn’t know it was that bad, the USA is fucked then, unless Biden just uses executive orders for everything, can he even do that?

The White House has some funds it can allocate without going through the house, and some power to give materiel, but it’s not loads. The last number I heard was $2B

I think this is one of the reasons we’ve given the challengers 2s to escalate things and why patience is running out with Germany. There’s a few weeks to sort stuff out now to get it into Ukrainian hands and battle ready before the Spring thaw and potentially another large Russian conscription.

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

Given that Ukraine has consistently won on the battlefield since the first couple of weeks of the war, and Russia is becoming weaker by the day, this is very, very far from the foregone conclusion you suggest.

"This war will continue until Russia can no longer sustain its losses" would be my opinion.

The threshold is very high though

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The threshold is very high though

How does a country fail?

Two ways: gradually, then suddenly.

I don't know the threshold, nor does anyone else. Given what we've seen so far, perhaps it will be lower than we think, and perhaps sooner.

(I had to look up the quote, turns out it was in a novel by Hemingway https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/102579-how-did-you-go-bankrupt-two-ways-gradually-then-suddenly )

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

How does a country fail?

Two ways: gradually, then suddenly.

I don't know the threshold, nor does anyone else. Given what we've seen so far, perhaps it will be lower than we think, and perhaps sooner.

(I had to look up the quote, turns out it was in a novel by Hemingway https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/102579-how-did-you-go-bankrupt-two-ways-gradually-then-suddenly )

That quote sums up my bankruptcy perfectly!

 

[MCFC_ Phil]

How does a country fail?

Two ways: gradually, then suddenly.

I don't know the threshold, nor does anyone else. Given what we've seen so far, perhaps it will be lower than we think, and perhaps sooner.

(I had to look up the quote, turns out it was in a novel by Hemingway https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/102579-how-did-you-go-bankrupt-two-ways-gradually-then-suddenly )

I hope it sooner than we think. History says otherwise though

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I hope it sooner than we think. History says otherwise though

Impossible to say I think. I remember the fall of the Iron Curtain, and that was far faster than anyone thought possible. Likewise apartheid.

I think perhaps the main lesson of the last year is just how weak and corrupt Russia is.

 

[Irwell]

The modern world with all the interconnected technologies, supply chains and economies is also a very different place to the world of back then.

 

[BlueAnorak]

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