Russian invasion of Ukraine

[SPIDERBOY]

Russian convoy hit and destroyed,about 10km Southwest of Donetsk.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[CTID1977]

 

[cleavers]

Hopefully NATO will make a matching move.

They're already there, have been for years.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

They're already there, have been for years.

I may be wrong,and don't know how shit would work.
Are they not under the command of NATO,under some other organisation?

Slava Ukraini.

 

[lee_wsm]

Not sure I agree with that. Many Russians I suspect would be against this conflict but are too scared to voice such an opinion. It would be interesting to see what the Russian mood would be if Putin and his current regime were ousted and replaced with a more democratic thinking regime

But would any rational thinking person get near power. Once the power vacuum sets in it will be those that shout loud that will force their way to the front

 

[cleavers]

I may be wrong,and don't know how shit would work.
Are they not under the command of NATO,under some other organisation?

I think it depends on who/what they are, and what they're doing, though I have no certainty of that.

Something like a patriot aac battery will likely be under command of the forces running it, they showed a battery in Poland on the bbc news at 1pm. There were 4 or 5 them together in a field with a temporary built road to them, I assume they were US. I also assume if there are any in Ukraine (I don't think there are yet) they will be under control of trained Ukrainian forces, certainly not NATO, though there is a lot of monitoring going on by NATO around the borders. There's blackhawks operating daily over Romania close to the Ukraine border, I'm sure they are under US control for now, and just "training".

UK have units in all the Baltic states, Poland, and Romania that I know of, I would think they will remain under UK control for the moment, at least until there is a threat to NATO, but there will be a NATO HQ monitoring things, and ready to take overall control if required.

 

[CTID1977]

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

Something in my eyes listening to Joe Biden.

 

[mosssideblue]

But would any rational thinking person get near power. Once the power vacuum sets in it will be those that shout loud that will force their way to the front

I guess that depends on the impact that Putin has on them over this war

 

[Slipper One]

I think you grossly underestimate the impact this has had on relations between Russia and Western Europe, both on a geopolitical and micro level.

I think it is incumbent upon those of us who see the logic and potential existential nature of our resistance to Russian aggression to not allow an appeasement mindset to take root. I think Russia’s SM influence has waned considerably in the last twelve months, which will help in that regard.

I can’t see Russia having the same energy hold over Western Europe ever again. I would say the prospects of that within the next generation are virtually nil.

Russians as individuals will be singled out going forward, both in terms of restrictions around how they allocate and spend their wealth, and how they are treated when they are tourists. I think they will receive a much more hostile reception when they holiday elsewhere, for example.

You also assume Russia can sustain severe losses indefinitely but this is wrong. There will come a point, just like the US in Vietnam, where those losses come at too high a political cost. They cannot keep losing 1,000 a day indefinitely and simply shrug it off. The maths don’t lie.

Words like ‘never’ in terms of reparations are easy to throw around, but I don’t see how you can discount that possibility in its entirety. Russia should and will pay one way or another. I consider using the seized assets of the money stolen by the Oligarchs on Ukrainian infrastructure is a form of reparation.

I think there is a tendency for some to assume that certain things are immutable, and your recent posts on this thread suggest you are one of them, but history teaches us again and again that things can change on a fundamental level when events take over. This principle is the reason the Romanovs were shot in a basement and why the US is no longer a colony of the UK, or even in the Commonwealth.

It’s the same attitude that gave Putin the confidence and conviction to invade a year ago. The notion that things would just carry on in the same vein and Western Europe would just take it on the chin as they had done previously. He was wrong because things don’t always stay the same, irrespective - sometimes the camel’s back gets broken, just like with the Romanovs or the Declaration of Independence. It’s the same attitude that most football journalists displayed in the run in to 2012, assuming United would finish the job off because that just they way things were and because they always had previously.

Things can and do change, because some events cause a seismic shift in the landscape.

Assuming things will simply revert to broadly how they were before ignores the chaotic nature of the universe we live in. I believe this war has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape and assuming Russia will be allowed to exploit and wield the same amount of power over Western Europe in a decade is overly simplistic wholly wrong.

Things don’t always go back to what they were and in this instance too much disruption has occurred for that to happen. I think the nature of the relationship between Russia (and its people) and the rest of Europe has fundamentally changed for the next generation (at least) as a result of this invasion and how the subsequent conflict has been prosecuted - and the assumptions you make around Russian tentacles reasserting themselves will not happen.

You say Russia will be wiser, but appear to assume Western Europe will not, but nothing in the course of the last twelve months would suggest the Russian state was capable of displaying any form of wisdom. Quite the opposite.

All good points, of course.

We can agree to disagree on the likes of Germany, France and Italy after this is over. In my view, money and trade will unfortunately outweigh morality. Are you implying that Nord Stream for example is now obsolete from now on? It will probably be one of the first things up and running, with much to follow.

“It’s the same attitude that gave Putin the confidence and conviction to invade a year ago. The notion that things would just carry on in the same vein and Western Europe would just take it on the chin as they had done previously.”

You have a greater faith in the collective Europe than I do. If it wasn't for the 'coercion' of the US and UK early on, what do you think the response of the European countries would have been?
They would still be discussing how to respond and what meaningless sanctions to apply so as not to disrupt their energy and trade supplies.......and Ukraine would have fallen after the first few weeks.

If I implied that Russia could sustain losses indefinitely, then I apologize. My thoughts were that they could sustain losses longer than Ukraine, or until the support fractures.

You compare todays issues in Ukraine with the Romanovs and the Declaration Of Independence, but in both of those cases there was the opportunity for a strong resistance, which I don't see in present day Russia.
There's a huge difference between this and Vietnam. I don't read everything, but apart from some small early push back, I haven't seen masses of people descend on Red Square condemning Putin and his war. There have been more old age pensioners protesting on the streets of China about cuts to their benefits than people in Russia protesting the war. That alone shows the grip the present regime have on the country.

I'd happily accept your points on reparations coming from confiscated finances, but I was thinking more of Russia actually paying directly for the damages it had caused.

I don't assume that Europe would not be wiser, but they certainly haven't been smart in recent years. The Nord Stream pipeline would surely be an example of that. Years ago I once joined a company that had one sole client. I suggested that we shouldn't be so reliant on one business, but was assured that they were too large a company and future business was secure. Well guess what. :)

If any lesson is to be learned, it is that all European countries should step up and finance a strong military to safeguard Europe and its citizens. It pains me to show any support for Trump, but that would be one point regarding NATO that was valid. Hopefully it will never be required, but Europe shouldn't sit back and rely on the US to bail it out if something was to happen. The US is on the decline and that will increase in the coming years.