Russian invasion of Ukraine

Or the Russian army falls apart under its weight of corruption.

Or the Russian people stop allowing their citizenry to be conscripted to their death.

Or further insurgency/ rebellion in Siberian or Central Asian Russia draws armed forces away.

Or Putins generals face up to him.

Or Russia's neighbours like Georgia take the opportunity to settle their border disputes.

I'm not predicting anything, but there are very many ways the Russian occupation can collapse.

And I sincerely hope you are right.
 

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