Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Koniec]

In the short term I agree - and should the American election go as everyone is predicting / hoping then we should also pursue a long term strategy of backing Ukraine.

But there needs to be a plan in place for some kind of settlement, and conversations happening around it via back channels.

I am terrified of what might happen I f the Americans elect a MAGA candidate and the war is still roughly where it is now.

Hopefully the Yank arms industry has a strong lobby with the Maga types. They’ll want to keep making money from any conflict.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

In the short term I agree - and should the American election go as everyone is predicting / hoping then we should also pursue a long term strategy of backing Ukraine.

But there needs to be a plan in place for some kind of settlement, and conversations happening around it via back channels.

I am terrified of what might happen I f the Americans elect a MAGA candidate and the war is still roughly where it is now.

I think the US won’t elect a MAGA candidate for the same reason as Jeremy Corbyn would never win a gen election in this country. There simply isn’t enough support across the electorate and amongst floating voters in particular.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

In the short term I agree - and should the American election go as everyone is predicting / hoping then we should also pursue a long term strategy of backing Ukraine.

But there needs to be a plan in place for some kind of settlement, and conversations happening around it via back channels.

I am terrified of what might happen I f the Americans elect a MAGA candidate and the war is still roughly where it is now.

I agree eventually there will be a settlement/ peace treaty/ armistice.

But at the moment, both sides seem to believe they will be in a better position to have that negotiation later.

Ukraine has been winning the war since this time last year, so understandably thinks they can continue to do so

Russia thinks they'll grind down Western support, even if it takes years, and can control their internal opposition, so will eventually be in a better position on the ground.

Until one or both sides changes their mind, fighting will continue, I think.

Of course, this is just my uninformed speculation.

 

[grunge]

Hopefully the Yank arms industry has a strong lobby with the Maga types. They’ll want to keep making money from any conflict.

Thankfully I think this is a strong point, a lot of the US arms industry is in 'MAGA' states and the lobbying power will be immense.

 

[metalblue]

I agree eventually there will be a settlement/ peace treaty/ armistice.

But at the moment, both sides seem to believe they will be in a better position to have that negotiation later.

Ukraine has been winning the war since this time last year, so understandably thinks they can continue to do so

Russia thinks they'll grind down Western support, even if it takes years, and can control their internal opposition, so will eventually be in a better position on the ground.

Until one or both sides changes their mind, fighting will continue, I think.

Of course, this is just my uninformed speculation.

I’d say that’s a fair assessment

 

[jim tolmies perm]

It doesn't have to be Trump. If the Republicans go down the route of nominating a MAGA candidate over a traditional conservative, and said candidate beats Biden (a real possibility) the US's direction in Ukraine is just as likely to change as if Trump himself got back in.

Like I said above, it's a huge spectre looming over the horizon that must be taken seriously, and a scenario Russia will be using every trick in their book to try and engineer.

Even more reason to get this war over sooner rather than later. And that either means full Nato forces smashing Russia to pieces, or everyone getting round a negotiating table.

I'd love us to roll into Ukraine and kill every last Russian **** stood on their land but it's just not going to happen, which means the negotiation angle needs to be looked at.

Someone like Erdogan is well placed to at least try and broker it.

Erdogan might not be around after next month

 

[grunge]

It doesn't have to be Trump. If the Republicans go down the route of nominating a MAGA candidate over a traditional conservative, and said candidate beats Biden (a real possibility) the US's direction in Ukraine is just as likely to change as if Trump himself got back in.

Like I said above, it's a huge spectre looming over the horizon that must be taken seriously, and a scenario Russia will be using every trick in their book to try and engineer.

Even more reason to get this war over sooner rather than later. And that either means full Nato forces smashing Russia to pieces, or everyone getting round a negotiating table.

I'd love us to roll into Ukraine and kill every last Russian **** stood on their land but it's just not going to happen, which means the negotiation angle needs to be looked at.

Someone like Erdogan is well placed to at least try and broker it.

The support levels for stopping support for Ukraine in the US are actually very low. last poll was something like 9%. I think even if a a hardliner got in they would be hard pushed to do it without the risk of splitting the GOP in 2. I think the Party leadership would block it as much as they could.

 

[St.Pauli support]

But at the moment, both sides seem to believe they will be in a better position to have that negotiation later.

In fact there's only one side with a good reason to believe in territorial gains, and that is Ukraine.
Look what the "superpower" has achieved after 14 months. What would change their position now? (and no, nukes are no option).
Putin is just unable to make a step back for status reasons, feeling superior. I'm not convinced they believe they can still achieve whatever goals, they just can't give in. Not yet. And giving in would probably end Putin's power.

Ukraine on the other side will test the new western material standing in position and see what it can change on the battle field. If that doesn't change much, we would come to a stalemate and a new territorial status quo. Peace from there? Not really. The superpower would take the time to recover and strike again when the time is right. At least as long as the revisionist russian doctrine remains unchanged. And in case the reduced Ukraine is no NATO member then.

If Putin wants to play the long game he might find out that western economies are on a different level. It can't work in Putin's favour. He would refuse reality and that never ends well. IMO.

 

[St.Pauli support]

 

[Koniec]

In fact there's only one side with a good reason to believe in territorial gains, and that is Ukraine.
Look what the "superpower" has achieved after 14 months. What would change their position now? (and no, nukes are no option).
Putin is just unable to make a step back for status reasons, feeling superior. I'm not convinced they believe they can still achieve whatever goals, they just can't give in. Not yet. And giving in would probably end Putin's power.

Ukraine on the other side will test the new western material standing in position and see what it can change on the battle field. If that doesn't change much, we would come to a stalemate and a new territorial status quo. Peace from there? Not really. The superpower would take the time to recover and strike again when the time is right. At least as long as the revisionist russian doctrine remains unchanged. And in case the reduced Ukraine is no NATO member then.

If Putin wants to play the long game he might find out that western economies are on a different level. It can't work in Putin's favour. He would refuse reality and that never ends well. IMO.

Putins problem is this ain’t WW2. He doesn’t have American money bankrolling the Russian war effort and there’s no wall of secrecy. Why he even started this war beggars belief. Hopefully he goes out like Stalin asap. Doesn’t look like anyone around him is going to step up and send him to the dungeon in the Lubyanka