Russian invasion of Ukraine

metalblue said:
You can’t. It’s an uncomfortable reality but one that we have to likely confront if the lines haven’t dramatically changed by the winter which is possible given Russian ineptitude. Assuming both sides spend the next 5-6 months largely going nowhere then realistically the only way Russia will unilaterally change its position is through an invading army marching in to Moscow, revolution, or the hope that another Gorbachev type figure arrives. No one is invading Russia and no signs of either of the other two so we are left with two probable outcomes.

The first is the war in Ukraine continues until Putin dies (and even then we don’t know if his replacement will want the same), this requires the west to keep supporting Ukraine both directly and also with the indirect consequences (energy and food prices) because we know the Russians are now dug in and can (and will) indefinitely send men to their death and not give a flying fuck.

The second is some sort of peace agreement is reached, for this to happen Russia needs to make overtures for peace (which isn’t happening now as far as we know), and here should it happen there will be uncomfortable compromises. Sadly Ukraine isn’t in any position to dictate what those compromises will be (if it were there would rightly be no compromise), the west will decide. Of course the west isn’t stupid and I suspect it will be mindful of how little Russia can be trusted so overseeing elections, putting peacekeepers on the ground or signing treaties or having ukraine join NATO are all mechanisms to get as much assurance for Ukraine as possible whilst at same time being conscious of what Russia will agree to - the further we can kick the tricky items down the line to a time Putin no longer walks this planet the more likely agreement can be reached with him.

And yes it’s all shit because on the surface the aggressor is “rewarded” for their behaviour which makes a mockery of so called world order.
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Agree with all you say but see the reasons and rhetoric used by Putin and his propogandists as being perhaps the biggest stumbling block.
From starting with protecting those poor ruSSian speakers in Donbas/Crimea (& even Transnistria) with the "Special Operation", it has grown and taken on a life of its own. Then it was self defence and afear of Ukraine and the possibility of a longer NATO border, then it was Nazis, then LGBT/permissive western values, then satanists and then fighting against NATO to safeguard the very future of the whole of the country.
Rolling back from the protection of russian speakers may be one thing but its alot harder to save any face after all the complete shit that they have spouted.
Next few months and the arrival of the NATO heavy armour will be the thing that may swing it and break the current impasse. Even then I could see ruSSia being pushed back in the Donbas, but it will be Crimea that would be the biggest symbolic issue.
Putin could not save any face if he were to lose the base for the Black Sea fleet let alone control over the Kerch Bridge. That beign taken out again would really be a dagger to Putins heart/reputation/legacy
 
Russian opposition Alexei Navalny apparently in a critical condition with ally suspecting slow poisoning. He really is a murdering scumbag Putin.

How he even has the title President before his name is a sham.. murdering nonce twat fits better!!
 
LGWIO said:
Agree with all you say but see the reasons and rhetoric used by Putin and his propogandists as being perhaps the biggest stumbling block.
From starting with protecting those poor ruSSian speakers in Donbas/Crimea (& even Transnistria) with the "Special Operation", it has grown and taken on a life of its own. Then it was self defence and afear of Ukraine and the possibility of a longer NATO border, then it was Nazis, then LGBT/permissive western values, then satanists and then fighting against NATO to safeguard the very future of the whole of the country.
Rolling back from the protection of russian speakers may be one thing but its alot harder to save any face after all the complete shit that they have spouted.
Next few months and the arrival of the NATO heavy armour will be the thing that may swing it and break the current impasse. Even then I could see ruSSia being pushed back in the Donbas, but it will be Crimea that would be the biggest symbolic issue.
Putin could not save any face if he were to lose the base for the Black Sea fleet let alone control over the Kerch Bridge. That beign taken out again would really be a dagger to Putins heart/reputation/legacy
Click to expand...

All very valid points. If history teaches us anything it’s the Russians are nothing but stubborn, it took someone different like Gorbachev to get them out of the Afghanistan mire.

Fortunately we know how Putin is cut from that same cloth and is a great strategist otherwise we might be forgiven for thinking he is a stubborn sadistic nonce **** who would rather see everyone of his mobilised forces meet their maker on Ukrainian soil than figure a way out of the mess he alone created.
 
Blue warrior said:
Russian opposition Alexei Navalny apparently in a critical condition with ally suspecting slow poisoning. He really is a murdering scumbag Putin.

How he even has the title President before his name is a sham.. murdering nonce twat fits better!!
Click to expand...
metalblue said:
All very valid points. If history teaches us anything it’s the Russians are nothing but stubborn, it took someone different like Gorbachev to get them out of the Afghanistan mire.

Fortunately we know how Putin is cut from that same cloth and is a great strategist otherwise we might be forgiven for thinking he is a stubborn sadistic nonce **** who would rather see everyone of his mobilised forces meet their maker on Ukrainian soil than figure a way out of the mess he alone created.
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Gorbachev was a **** too despite the image painted of him in west.
 
metalblue said:
All very valid points. If history teaches us anything it’s the Russians are nothing but stubborn, it took someone different like Gorbachev to get them out of the Afghanistan mire.

Fortunately we know how Putin is cut from that same cloth and is a great strategist otherwise we might be forgiven for thinking he is a stubborn sadistic nonce **** who would rather see everyone of his mobilised forces meet their maker on Ukrainian soil than figure a way out of the mess he alone created.
Click to expand...
Yes, I do think that Zelensky genuinely cares and feels for every Ukranian death, but that Putin simply looks where the next "peasant" from the "russian empire" (not the major cities) and goes back to admiring his model of the Kerch bridge in his office.
 
There was a good documentary on BBC 3 last night following a group of Ukraines that have come to the the UK for military training
 
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