Russian invasion of Ukraine

The only problem with this is that Ukraine needs to be able to occupy Crimea ASAP if there’s a power change in Moscow.

Any new Russian leader is likely to sue for peace and try to get 2014 borders reinstated and blame everything on Putin, and if Crimea is still in Russian control then they’re likely to be allowed by the West to keep it, because let’s be honest no one cared when they occupied it 2014-2022. I know they’ve all promised Ukraine needs to be made entirely whole, but that’s very easy to say in the middle of a war when the end of conflict seems miles away.


So I think Ukraine will pretty much stop operations hoping that the Russian army gets recalled to stop a civil war, with the exception of down south where they need to be able to strike Crimea within a few hours if needs be.

Fair point, they need to be ready to seize the initiative if big changes are coming. I think this will come down to preparation and timing.

I’m sure they’re drafting out a load of different contingency plans as we speak.
 
Taking the bridge out doesn’t stop it being occupied. It makes life difficult for the occupiers, but it’s still in Russian hands.

Ideally they’d retake the airfields, force a mass surrender and threaten Sevastopol to the point where the Black Sea fleet either leaves, gets attacked or is scuttled.

The Black Sea fleet represents a very complicated issue at the negotiating table that would be much better for Ukraine if it didn’t exist.
Got to be a positive move by Ukraine tho hasn't it? Stops the Russians using it militarily.
 

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