Russian invasion of Ukraine

mosssideblue said:
Just musing but I fear more now for Ukraine as we know Wagner wanted to hit harder, and now it looks like he will
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Wagner threw everything in and then stood down, so I can’t see Putin giving them any more leash let alone equipment, especially when he will have the gnawing suspicion that it could be turned against the state. Similarly, the other warlords showed that they’re not adverse to turning on each other either, which means there can be no trust there.

To date, the Russians have relied on the PMCs, especially Wagner, to do the hard yards, but if you were such a mercenary, would you now sign a contract to fight under the Russian state in Ukraine, under a military leadership you regard as incompetent and whom you do not trust? If you do, you are more likely to be dispersed across units, so you’ll be more fearful of a bullet in the back than the chest. Better to be a Wild Goose in Africa.

Russian stocks of weapons are not finite, so the only place to turn next for a push on the ground is for a mass mobilisation, but events in Rostov (no protests against Wagner) indicated that the public in the large, western cities probably cannot be relied upon, and the inability of the army to respond and ineptitude of the security services to predict won’t fill Putin with confidence either. If he has to draw men from his forces in Moscow, who will suppress the public? No doubt, then, there will be more bombast and more bombs, but those have not bent the will of the Ukrainians yet, nor will they.

The Ukrainians are making the ultimate sacrifice and will not risk their men and materiel just to satisfy those of us in the West who are impatient for things to be over. The prices we pay in shops and on utilities are small by comparison, so we just need to be patient and trust in them.

Sorry for the long reply.
 
west didsblue said:
I think the reality is more straightforward than most people think.
The clue is that Prighozin is the leader of a group of mercenaries and as such has no ambition except to cash in as much as possible. He knows Putin is weak and started this with a view to extorting cash from Putin. Putin gave in and transferred a few billion to him, and in return he’s redeploying his private army to somewhere irrelevant where they’re no threat and will go and live in a very nice dacha somewhere out of the way in Belarus.
Just my opinion.
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And not sit near any windows for the rest of his lift.
 
Gabriel said:
Wagner threw everything in and then stood down, so I can’t see Putin giving them any more leash let alone equipment, especially when he will have the gnawing suspicion that it could be turned against the state. Similarly, the other warlords showed that they’re not adverse to turning on each other either, which means there can be no trust there.

To date, the Russians have relied on the PMCs, especially Wagner, to do the hard yards, but if you were such a mercenary, would you now sign a contract to fight under the Russian state in Ukraine, under a military leadership you regard as incompetent and whom you do not trust? If you do, you are more likely to be dispersed across units, so you’ll be more fearful of a bullet in the back than the chest. Better to be a Wild Goose in Africa.

Russian stocks of weapons are not finite, so the only place to turn next for a push on the ground is for a mass mobilisation, but events in Rostov (no protests against Wagner) indicated that the public in the large, western cities probably cannot be relied upon, and the inability of the army to respond and ineptitude of the security services to predict won’t fill Putin with confidence either. If he has to draw men from his forces in Moscow, who will suppress the public? No doubt, then, there will be more bombast and more bombs, but those have not bent the will of the Ukrainians yet, nor will they.

The Ukrainians are making the ultimate sacrifice and will not risk their men and materiel just to satisfy those of us in the West who are impatient for things to be over. The prices we pay in shops and on utilities are small by comparison, so we just need to be patient and trust in them.

Sorry for the long reply.
Click to expand...
Don't apologise, I enjoyed reading it and your thought oot response
 
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