Russian invasion of Ukraine

grunge said:
I think this is all based off of some reports that some ex diplomat types had a meeting. White house has denied it but then back channels are usually denied.

that being said. one thing that has been regularly stated, Ukraine decide.

One thing to consider is ( unless things changed over the weekend ) the vast majority of Ukrainian hardware hasn't even entered the front lines. they are still in a shaping/probing state.
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I hope the politicians of this world continue to support that narrative & not resort to looking after themselves on the home front (elections/policies etc) not only should they have the right, they have earned the right with their courage & fighting spirit. They can obviously fight till the last soldier, but without weapons support (which they can’t decide) negotiation becomes more a reality
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I disagree with your analysis. I think Biden will be perfectly happy for RussIan military capability to be expended in the Ukrainian military theatre. I don’t think the carve up to which you refer would be acceptable to the rest of NATO or Ukraine and I think he’d be perfectly happy to run on a NATO unity ticket, as broadly speaking it’s a vote-winner. Those who want to appease Russia wouldn’t vote for him anyway.
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He’ll be happy as long as he’s not having to expend his own stockpiles too far (with the China-Taiwan situation) the Americans have put a hell of a lot into this war and there will come a point where even the most ardent supporter of the Ukrainians (and the war continuing) will be sat thinking ‘how long ?’ that question gets closer every day & can be accelerated at any point, look how quick they pulled out of Afghanistan. Bidens pitch is firmly behind a strong NATO & successful Ukrainian assault, there’s no doubt in that, but if Trump comes in strong with public opinion in his favour, Biden may have no choice, there is more than a murmur Biden is being given carte Blanche on his support for Ukraine in order to hang him self in the polls
 
LGWIO said:
Yres fully appreciate that they are not in NATO (yet) but does the NATO charter prevent them from basing troops in a "friendly" country?
After all whilst in a "conflict" according to "the master strategist" they are only subject to a "Special Military Operation".
Putin also claimed that this was to protect the poor persecuted ethnic russians of the donbas, so whats the issue with putting troops in the regions that he is not trying to save those poor persecuted folk?
Equally, does it have to be NATO as such? Couldnt UK/Ger/Fra/Pol base some troops there...acting as a deterrent/shield?
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NATO want to avoid a hard escalation.
Western leaders want to avoid their countries being actively involved in this fuckin war.

I get your point, but the risk is too high. Esp. the political risk for leaders in their home counties. You can rule out Germany 100%, as France. US troops in Ukraine won't sound too sexy for Biden's campaign...

Only eastern European NATO countries could threaten now to take own measures as they feel Europe's western states don't do enough. But then being attacked by Russia could provoke an article 5 situation! Nobody wants that.

Also, once you get troops in, you need very good points to get them out again! What's the exit strategy?

In the end the big NATO members will insist to act as one unity and find a strong enough message to further support Ukraine - without NATO troops in Ukraine.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Interesting news today on Prigozhin meeting Putinn AFTER the end of the mutiny. Plenty of articles around. Here is the KOS take.
www.dailykos.com

Putin hosted Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin at the Kremlin after abortive mutiny

Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin at the Kremlin days after the commander led a short-lived rebellion, a senior government spokesman said Monday, the latest twist in a baffling episode that has raised questions...
www.dailykos.com
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Totally weird. What is going on there?
 
St.Pauli support said:
NATO want to avoid a hard escalation.
Western leaders want to avoid their countries being actively involved in this fuckin war.

I get your point, but the risk is too high. Esp. the political risk for leaders in their home counties. You can rule out Germany 100%, as France. US troops in Ukraine won't sound too sexy for Biden's campaign...

Only eastern European NATO countries could threaten now to take own measures as they feel Europe's western states don't do enough. But then being attacked by Russia could provoke an article 5 situation! Nobody wants that.

Also, once you get troops in, you need very good points to get them out again! What's the exit strategy?

In the end the big NATO members will insist to act as one unity and find a strong enough message to further support Ukraine - without NATO troops in Ukraine.
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In addition, the Ukrainians have repeatedly said that it’s their boots on the ground and they will do the fighting for their Country.
 
KS55 said:
Totally weird. What is going on there?
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Your guess is as good as mine.
Worst case for Putin us he may actually have been deposed and is now just an Oligarghy figurehead leader (maybe he's actually dead and the one seen in public is just a body double).
 
BlueAnorak said:
The Russians losing 3-5 times the number of troops that Ukraine is losing the way things are panning out really benefits Ukraine and really is unsustainable Crazy Ivan stuff.

I still think it will take a while to get through and there will be a good few weeks of shaping operations to go yet.
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Yeah,it wont be a walk in the park.

Slava Ukraini.
 
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