Russian invasion of Ukraine

lyonfish said:
A lot has been said about the attritional aspect of this war, with people debating troop and tank numbers. But it seems to me numbers aren't that relevant, firepower is far more important. Russia has a lot more artillary than Ukraine, but it hasn't the range or accuracy, I don't know the stats, they might be able to fire say five times more rounds but if it takes ten rounds to every one that Ukraine fires to hit a target then Russia is in trouble. Russia has lost something like a quarter of their heavy guns already, that still leaves them with a huge number but they are only as effective as the the ammo Russia can provide them with, Ukraine has got better at destroying Russian guns but they've also got better at hitting and disrupting Russian GLOCs, denying Russian artillary units sufficient ammunition. Obviously Russia will be trying to do the same to Ukraine artillary but the lack of range and accuracy, plus unreliable supplies of ammo will make it much more difficult. Ultimately this war will not be settled by attrition but by logistics, because without good logistics you don't have firepower.
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HAD a lot more artilary than Ukraine.
Artilary losses for both sides have been progressing at around a 1:3 loss ratio between Ukraine and Russia fir over a year, but over the last 4 months it has accelerated to 1:6 - 20-30 Russian Artilary pieces are now being knocked off every day.
Worse for Russia there are certain nuggets of information that weigh against them:
- Ukrainian artilary losses are being covered by the west - they are not being covered by Russia. There weapons manufacturing capability is a bit of a shambles. Barrel manufacturing for one. They have been using high quality German steel since 1994 - Sanctions have put an end to that they will only have there own capability again next year and how good will that be? You can forget using cheap steel as well - barrels have to be top quality precision milled or they don't last. Even then they should to replaced after 1500 projectiles fired to retain accuracy and stand a good chance of breaking up after 4000 shots
- Ammunition supplies to the Russians in Ukraine are severely depleted and storage locations near the lines and behind the lines are continually being taken out.
- Ukrainian counter battery fire is more accurate than it's Russian equivalent and Russia can't move it easily without it being vissible to be taken out.
- HIMARS and M270 MLRS are devastating Russian rear areas. Ammo stores, logistics, command centres etc.
- Of all the Russian artillary pieces being destroyed the 152mm long range variety is top of the Ukrainian target list followed by 240mm and 120 mm mortars and MLRS. Loses in these categories are huge compared with smaller artilary pieces over the last 6 months.
- Russia has trouble moving artilary around to face Ukrainian threats. Ukrainian artilary less so.

At some point this year Ukraine will have an advantage in artillary (Ben Hidges video a month or so ago). The ability to bring concentrated fire advantage to points on the front with Russian ammunition deficiency will soon pay dividends.
 
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lyonfish said:
A lot has been said about the attritional aspect of this war, with people debating troop and tank numbers. But it seems to me numbers aren't that relevant, firepower is far more important. Russia has a lot more artillary than Ukraine, but it hasn't the range or accuracy, I don't know the stats, they might be able to fire say five times more rounds but if it takes ten rounds to every one that Ukraine fires to hit a target then Russia is in trouble. Russia has lost something like a quarter of their heavy guns already, that still leaves them with a huge number but they are only as effective as the the ammo Russia can provide them with, Ukraine has got better at destroying Russian guns but they've also got better at hitting and disrupting Russian GLOCs, denying Russian artillary units sufficient ammunition. Obviously Russia will be trying to do the same to Ukraine artillary but the lack of range and accuracy, plus unreliable supplies of ammo will make it much more difficult. Ultimately this war will not be settled by attrition but by logistics, because without good logistics you don't have firepower.
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Agree. Logistics will be crucial and Russia‘s lines will be disrupted soon enough.
 
Sir peace frog said:
i was reading about the popes speech,

“I wish you, young Russians, the vocation to be artisans of peace amid so many conflicts and amid so many polarizations that come from all sides and plague our world. I invite you to be sowers of seeds of reconciliation, small seeds that in this winter of war will not sprout in the frozen ground for the time being, but will blossom in a future spring.”
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When he mentions “Catherine and Peter the great” I can forgive his ramble it’s much easier to say “ do not fight“ Kyiv is the burial home of Peter and Catherine that’s what Putin may want but he’s not getting it.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Whether or not you believe Ben Hodges (ex US commander of US & NATO forces Europe) here is his latest offering.
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Good video. I'd only disagree in that the US / NATO aim is regime change. And its not helpful to say it. Putin has gone to far and there is no way back for him. Its difficult to see the Russians withdraw with Putin in power.

But saying that doesn't help as Putin would use it. Keep quiet and apply maximum pressure is the way to go.
 
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