Russian invasion of Ukraine

A post from earlier in the day

"FROM THE ANALYST"

SOUTHERN FRONT UPDATE

The latest information is that the artillery bombardment around the Verbove and Novopropivka areas is still ongoing, and it’s had a highly detrimental impact on the Russians. They’re losing vehicles and ammunition dumps, never mind a fair bit of artillery to precision strikes.
The Russians have launched a media spin campaign using outdated footage from 3-6 weeks ago saying the Ukrainian attack has been foiled at Verbove, so be very aware they’re trying to undermine everyone’s confidence.
According to the Ukrainians they haven’t even deployed the three primary brigades yet on Verbove and the troops assaulting Novopropivka have the advantage of holding the higher ground which is why things are so difficult for the Russians. Again, it has to be remembered that long before these assaults started, Novopropivka was clearly understood to be very difficult to defend, because of the surrounding terrain. Verbove on the other hand is on flatter ground with low hills around; it both sides have control over them.
Fighting in Novopropivka has been intense for days but the Russians are moving back.
The biggest problem for the Russians is they can’t rotate out either because the Ukrainian bombardment have trapped them or they’re just not allowed to leave. This has resulted in tremendous losses on the VDV forces whose attrition levels are said to be appalling. There is exhaustion and lack of ammo - some units yesterday claimed that bullets for their guns arrived without gunpowder in them and were as good as useless.
HIMARS have been deployed tactically around the front too as these have a massive impact on their targets.
Published video showed an entire Russian counter-assault group carefully making their way on their stomachs over open ground covered with scrub and a cluster munition terminating that operation rather effectively.
I’m very much of the opinion that for Ukraine this is the rolling thunder of artillery storm that will create the ‘empty’ zone that lets them move with speed and set up a momentum - they can use it to manoeuvre and then the tanks and armoured vehicles will attempt a breakthrough. There are more troops on each side here than the Russians started the invasion with.
The lack of air strikes by the Russians has also been noted- it’s as though they know the Ukrainians have brought up air defence units in their rear and won’t risk it.
I was talking with associates this morning and we’re all mentally drained. I am so committed to the need to defeat Russia and always have been these past 45 years, nobody has come closer than Ukraine - and they have to win, they simply have to. We all know it. This is a battle on the road to that victory.

Slava Ukraini
 
The Analyst has gone all secretive!
I'm hoping for some exciting news soon!

OPSEC
Operational Security.
I have never seen anything like it.
I’ve been told things to keep me on side individually, but nothing that can be said.
Ukraine has reached out to the mappers and asked them to keep things quiet just for now. The Russians are unusually silent.
You would think nothing’s happening.
But it is and it’s vicious. I can say that much. It’s absolutely vicious.
That’s it. I wish I could tell you more.

Slava Ukraini !
@DiDiAussie
They are all heroes fighting for their country hope it’s not to vicious for them.
 
Do we know if this is just there standard draft? Or on top of that?
The Guardian reported......"Vladimir Putin has signed a decree setting out the routine autumn conscription campaign, calling up 130,000 citizens for statutory military service, a document posted on the government website showed. Separately, Putin reportedly met Andrei Troshev, formerly a top Wagner mercenary commander, to discuss how voluntary fighting units are used in the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin said on Friday."
 
That's not logical? If they couldn't take the bridge out completely I'm sure they would. Otherwise they are just allowing the Russians to use it more, to reinforce their positions.
Unless they want as many Russian troops in Crimea as possible to allow weaknesses elsewhere?
Blowing the bridge later isolates those still there and with no way to supply them may be a plan.
 
Unless they want as many Russian troops in Crimea as possible to allow weaknesses elsewhere?
Blowing the bridge later isolates those still there and with no way to supply them may be a plan.
Part of the reason ruSSia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities is so that the Ukrainians have to keep their air defences deployed away from the front line
Perhaps the Ukrainians are using a similar tactic on the bridge. Whilst it stands, the ruSSians are obsessed with defending it and have a great number of their supposedly best air defences surrounding it
 
Part of the reason ruSSia keeps attacking Ukrainian cities is so that the Ukrainians have to keep their air defences deployed away from the front line
Perhaps the Ukrainians are using a similar tactic on the bridge. Whilst it stands, the ruSSians are obsessed with defending it and have a great number of their supposedly best air defences surrounding it

Atesh have confirmed that russia has moved air defences to defend oil depots in Crimea now as they are struggling to keep the supplys safe and are running low.
 
Mark Sumner Update:
Conclusions:
- Ukraine is slowly advancing and keeping the land it takes.
- Russian counter attacks to try to retake lost land are just butchering their own troops.
- with the advent of drones, every army in the world is obsolete:
 

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