Russian invasion of Ukraine

"FROM THE ANALYST"

WHY ATACMS MATTERS

Some of my colleagues call it ‘the missing link’.
You have M777 and Paladin at one end, moving to HIMARS then the next available weapon until now was Storm Shadow. That and the even longer ranged and much sought after but still denied Taurus, are quite the other end of the spectrum. GLSDB serves a more tactical purpose and sits between HIMARS and ATACMS as a lightweight attack system. ATACMS is that crucial system with the range and the warhead variability to create mayhem on the Robotyne Salient for those damned Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters. They have been seriously impeding Ukraine’s advance. They learned quickly to keep at arms length to avoid being shot down, but they made it impossible to put tanks into the frontlines without them being picked off. ATACMS has already been hitting their bases and could well force them to retreat out of operational range. That’s a massive deal by itself - it matters hugely and changes the operational environment. When so much has been going badly for Russia the handful of Ka-52’s have had a disproportionately high premium placed on them. They have made a huge difference and there’s no denying it. One officer told me a couple of weeks ago that if the Russians had even 30 they could use every day as effectively as they have the handful they still have working, things would have been very different for Ukrainian forces and they’d never have gotten as far as they have in the south.
We had quite a discussion over it because back in the 1980’s one of the key things we were always so afraid of was the droves of those menacing Mi-24 Hind attack ‘copters.
The cost of the Alligator has been so high Russia fielded only about 150 and that’s down to around 35-45 in operational use on the entire front. Bad pilots and lack of training had been their biggest problem. What’s left have learned their trade in the field and they’ve gotten pretty good. ATACMS can end that game, a bit late in the day, but it’s never too late.
Have no doubt that the arrival of ATACMS is going to piss the Russians off big time. The HIMARS launchers will have to have been reprogrammed to allow their use, and with only one missile at a time targets will have to be picked with care and a level of certainty.
Interestingly one of the extras that Germany doesn’t want to provide and that France and the UK have - is suitable targeting information for the Taurus and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG.
Because of their type of warhead and their terminal target recognition capabilities. Imagery is required in advance of likely targets. That takes some kind of satellite and extrapolating photography that converts to usable data recognition.
Germany thinks if Ukraine can’t provide its own they shouldn’t get the missiles. It hasn’t stopped the other two supplying their own data but it’s a step too far for Sholtz who thinks it puts Germany in the hot seat with Russia.
Meanwhile let’s be delighted at the arrival of ATACMS. Add GLSDB to that and Russian rear lines are going to feel the heat every day until they leave.
It’s a good day. One more nail in Putins coffin.

Slava Ukraini !
 
Interestingly those ACTMS missiles cost the US less money to ship them out to Ukraine than decommissioning them in the US. They have a negative accounting book value.
Same applies for cluster shell munitions that Ukraine has been using.
 
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Interestingly those ACTMS missiles cost the US less money to ship them out to Ukraine than decommissioning them in the US. They have a negative accounting book value.
Same applies for cluster shell munitions that Ikraine has been using.

I read yesterday they were upgrading them rather than decomissioning?
 
Not so convinced they will try it to be honest. If Russia's invasion of Ukraine had gone well then yeah I reckon they would have gone for it. But its still a big risk for them in terms of losses to financials.

My personal opinion is that they are waiting for Russia to weaken its self so much that they will offer to buy the chunk of Manchuria back from the Russians. Maybe more.
The Chinese economy is in melt down mode, with a sea of unsustainable debt. Both their biggest developers are effectively bankrupt. Thus they are less likely to attack anybody.
 

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