Russian invasion of Ukraine

feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
I was reading Russia had committed 400,000 troops to this needless invasion so far. They are also looking at spending 6 percent of gdp on it. I imagine when inflation starts to ramp up their supermarkets, shops etc will start to look like what they did during the Soviet era. Not to mention what public services etc will look like for your everyday Russian.

How long can they keep this going as they haven’t achieved probably 90-95 percent of their goals they had at the beginning of this conflict. The West has to keep the support up and outlast the misplaced will of Russia till it’s eventual collapse as a regime.
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And not lift any sanctions until all displaced children are returned safely, Ukraine is cleared of mines, rebuilt and made a NATO member.
 
Irwell said:
I think it all traces back to a single telegram channel so it is likely nonsense, but there are a lot of articles about the Putin cardiac arrest claim this morning.
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Was yesterday's news that in the express I believe, has died 100 times this past year and a half haha.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
I was reading Russia had committed 400,000 troops to this needless invasion so far. They are also looking at spending 6 percent of gdp on it. I imagine when inflation starts to ramp up their supermarkets, shops etc will start to look like what they did during the Soviet era. Not to mention what public services etc will look like for your everyday Russian.

How long can they keep this going as they haven’t achieved probably 90-95 percent of their goals they had at the beginning of this conflict. The West has to keep the support up and outlast the misplaced will of Russia till it’s eventual collapse as a regime.
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At the current burn rate, Russia will run out of money by end of 2026 or maybe sooner.
Remember, a fair proportion of their reserves are tied up in western banks and bonds. Serious austerity threatens if Putin is not deposed.
 
feedmpenzaandhewillscore said:
How long can they keep this going as they haven’t achieved probably 90-95 percent of their goals they had at the beginning of this conflict. The West has to keep the support up and outlast the misplaced will of Russia till its eventual collapse as a regime.
Click to expand...
At the bare minimum they can and will keep going through 2024 to see who wins the US elections - Russia has an enormous supply of expendables to throw away and the oligarchs have been forced to turn ‘their’ empires to supplying military equipment with NK providing more of questionable quality.

If Biden wins 24 and the support keeps flowing at similar rates then Russia have no options left, but they’re not going to give up while there is a chance Trump wins and gives them Ukraine.

The other factor in their favour is that they will now have 4/5 months to strengthen even further the deepest defences in the south and stockpile men and munitions to likely leave Ukraine starting from something like a clean slate again next spring.

The result of the 24 election is going to have a huge part to play and Trump has a much higher chance of winning than most want to admit.
 
Irwell said:
I think it all traces back to a single telegram channel so it is likely nonsense, but there are a lot of articles about the Putin cardiac arrest claim this morning.
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Maybe one of his body doubles.
 
Iassel said:
At the bare minimum they can and will keep going through 2024 to see who wins the US elections - Russia has an enormous supply of expendables to throw away and the oligarchs have been forced to turn ‘their’ empires to supplying military equipment with NK providing more of questionable quality.

If Biden wins 24 and the support keeps flowing at similar rates then Russia have no options left, but they’re not going to give up while there is a chance Trump wins and gives them Ukraine.

The other factor in their favour is that they will now have 4/5 months to strengthen even further the deepest defences in the south and stockpile men and munitions to likely leave Ukraine starting from something like a clean slate again next spring.

The result of the 24 election is going to have a huge part to play and Trump has a much higher chance of winning than most want to admit.
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Ukraine will already have all the supplies it needs by 2024 and will continue to be resupplied by the US through the UK. Trump can't do anything like having the US pull out of NATO without the support of Congress or the HoR. That's what will be crucial.

Russia has no benefits or gains to winning. They take Ukraine (highly unlikely at this stage) and the world continues to refuse to do business with them, so all their depleted resources will be for naught. They'll continue to be a world pariah with only North Korea, Iran and a few fringe states as 'buddies'.

The sanest thing for Russia to do now is to pull the orcs troops out, negotiate the cost of the reconstruction of Ukraine, accept Ukraine's sovereignty, accept Ukraine's wish to join NATO under the premise of a neutrality agreement that should tensions rise between NATO and Russia, Ukraine would never be used as a staging point by NATO. And that's being generous to Russia.
 
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