From yesterday this so probably already outdated.
From the Analyst:
RUSSIA MASSES SIX BRIGADES AROUND AVDIVKA
The latest information is increasingly of concern. Russia senses a weakness around Avdivka and yesterday they captured the quarry to the west of the southern peninsula. This isn’t about moving westward in general, but widening the front it creates to the north of the west extended front. That gives them more room to push upward as their forces storm the coking plant from the northern arm.
More of Russia’s few reserves are being pulled here and there appears to be a weather window that will give them time to exploit the situation.
One of the biggest concerns with Avdivka is that it’s a deep salient. That means it gives little time to the Ukrainian forces to pull out of it if the neck suddenly collapses, which is never an impossibility in these circumstances. There comes a point when you just can’t hold open such a narrow artery if the enemy has reached a momentum.
Even if the Ukrainians manage to hold the neck wide enough to continue supporting the city and its environs, they also have to hold the defensive perimeter around the city to make it worth the effort.
It’s hugely resource intensive and the Russians know it. They’re trying to force the Ukrainians to accept the fact it isn’t a viable place to defend when its disadvantages are so obvious. They also know that if they capture it, any hope Ukraine ever had of taking back occupied Zaporhizia let alone Donetsk is largely out of the window without massive military aid far beyond anything that’s been seen so far. This then, will be the point Putin offers a genuine willingness to negotiate. He’d have a winning hand. Everything to gain and nothing to lose.
And that’s why it cannot happen. Ukraine faces a huge existential threat here. It either fights to the point of exhaustion - risking the rest of the front line because the Russians will press them in distraction efforts.
The Russians know this is make or break for them. Avdivka is the closing argument. If they can’t take it the war rumbles on, US aid will flow again (I remain convinced it will), Ukraine will start to gain an active air force from the spring and the tables if not turned, will be rebalanced.
So far Ukrainian attempts to destabilise the offensive haven’t worked. I think that’s because Russia has created such a mass that while they take heavy losses it’s something they’ve already accepted as inevitable. By building that into their calculations any countervailing measures Ukraine takes - unless vastly more powerful than Russia has calculated - will amount to nothing more than they already expect to loose.
This is the Russian way. It always has been. Pile up vast amounts of mediocre forces and overwhelm the enemy.
There’s just no getting away from that quantity of men, and they absolutely don’t care how many they lose. It’s all irrelevant if they win. And if they don’t? There’s more where they came from.
There is great danger here, have no doubt. What Ukraine does next needs to be brilliant, forceful and devastating uin its accuracy. They have to topple the Russian’s balance and give them something to think about they didn’t expect and can’t quickly react to.
Defeat here and a bloody nose for Russia will stop it dead and prevent another offensive for months to come.
Slava Ukraine !