Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scottyboi said:
The situation at the front as of the end of the day on November 12, 2023 - DeepState

▶️ Bilomoskovskyi, Siverskyi and Bilhorodskyi sectors: no changes.

▶️ Svatove section - clashes continue near Lyman Pershy, Sinkivka and Orlyanka. Katsaps are deploying new reserves, especially increasing pressure along the railroad to Kupyansk.

▶️ Bakhmut direction - Katsaps are putting pressure on Klishchiyivka and are taking on the Yahidne area quite hard. Unfortunately, there are losses of positions, their scale is being clarified. The enemy's goal is to advance along the ridge to Chasovyi Yar. The latter is the dominant height and the key to Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

▶️ Avdiivka section - Katsaps keep moving from Krasnohorivka: either towards Novokalynove, or to Stepove, or to AKHZ, or to Ocheretne. This tactic is possible when infantry is not spared in the offensive and will bear fruit when they simply find a weak spot in the defense. This is what the Wagner militants did in Bakhmut. Near Vodyane, the Katsaps are trying to improve their tactical position above the quarry. Defenders in Pervomaiske are suffering from Katsap fpv drones. Reinforcements in the form of enemy drones arrived at the site. Fighting continues on the ruins of Maryinka, and the Katsap has not been able to capture the city for 21 months.

▶️ The situation in the Berdiansk sector remains unchanged.

▶️ Zaporizhzhya sector - in recent days, counter-attacks have been ongoing near Robotyne and Novoprokopivka.

▶️ Tavriya sector - fighting continues in Krynky. The enemy is trying to squeeze our advanced units out of the forest.

Analytical note. In early September, the DIU estimated the enemy's occupation army at 420 thousand troops. As of October 31, Information Resistance analysts updated the estimate of the contingent at 442 thousand troops. This suggests that the enemy is silently building up manpower despite losses. That is, the pace of mobilization hidden in Russia is capable not only of covering huge losses but also of increasing the number of occupation forces. In the near future, the enemy's superiority in numbers will be more noticeable and something will have to be done about it.
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Absolutely staggering numbers...320k dead, god knows how many wounded and still 450k in combat
The women in Russia are going to have to look far and wide for future partners....or share them. Repeat of WWII
 
mrcunny said:
Germans was slow at the start but my lord have they picked up the pace, Maybe the clowns in Russia should stop saying Berlin will be destroyed..
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Agreed I don’t know why they keep boasting that Europe is part of Russia “living in the last century“ with imperial values
 
jim tolmies perm said:
Absolutely staggering numbers...320k dead, god knows how many wounded and still 450k in combat
The women in Russia are going to have to look far and wide for future partners....or share them. Repeat of WWII
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Staggering numbers indeed.
Russia:
320k dead; Poor Russian treatment of their wounded means that the ratio of dead to wounded is low around 1-2 rather than 1-4 in Western armies. (The Soviet army was 1-2.8 in WW2) Thats 640k!!!

US sources put Ukraine dead AND seriously injured at 70k and wounded at 120k but the 70k will include 10-20k who can never fight again.
 
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From "The Analyst":

KHERSON UPDATE

A flood of information late yesterday, it seems they wanted to report on a success here.
Krynky has been held for quite some time now and has resisted several attempts at being dislodged by Russia. One especially bad operation went terribly wrong for them when an entire assault group got ambushed and destroyed in the neighbouring woods.
Ukrainian forces have started to push along the line of the road in both directions. The Russians have tried to resist this by going on the defensive at both ends of the advance, but especially Kozachi Laheryi - trying to stop the Ukrainians getting into the forest and further embedded.
The Russians started to use thermobaric weapons on the forest but in order to do this they withdraw their own troops first, making the assumption they are hitting their enemy in place.
Instead the Russians themselves are now admitting the bombardment convinced the Ukrainians that there was nothing in the forest and they swiftly moved in and took up former Russian positions.
The Russians are complaining that they can’t get close enough now without being seen by long range spotting cameras the Ukrainians have placed at key points - they don’t have the artillery accuracy or numbers and the drones don’t function because of the Ukrainian EW, so the Russians can’t take them out.
What few EW systems the Russians have left in the region are quickly hunted down and destroyed before they become a problem, Ukraine understands it has to maintain its advantage in order to sustain the operation.
Ukrainian military yesterday released video showing how they’re supplying more troops to the front along with supplies, during the mornings under the cover of dense autumn fogs which prevent Russians from using their drones.
Overall the Russians seem not to be prioritising the defence of this region. Most of their resources remain fixed on operations along the northern and eastern fronts with containment being the main objective along the southern front. They don’t see the long term danger from the Ukrainian operation in Kherson.
From a Russian perspective they see this as a sure way to trap and kill a load of Ukrainians when the time comes- if it ever does. They don’t see the operation as sustainable and they don’t see how Ukraine can do anything serious with it because they have to get across the river and any attempt at a semi-permanent crossing is easily eliminated. They think that when they decide to act and eliminate it they’ll use enough force that they will because Ukraine can’t maintain it long term.
This is Russian arrogance all over. They forget that in time Ukraine could bring enough stores and even create local air defence hot spots to be tactically flexible. They don’t see that by picking off Russian forces and knocking out artillery and EW on such a relentless basis it’s creating an edge they can’t easily get out from under.
The Ukrainians have been inventive and daring throughout this operation. Clearly they tested the concept early on and learnt form it, adapted and developed new ideas and better tactics to achieve and maintain what they plan to do. To my mind they have plans and there are things going on we haven’t seen yet and might not for several weeks.
This operation is far from over!

Slava Ukraini !
The Analyst
 
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