Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Scottyboi
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From "The Analyst"
FRONTLINE 23-24 JANUARY : ZENIT CRISIS?
There’s been a lot of fighting but no advancing on the northern front - the only notable increase in combat being at Vesele north of Bakhmut, where the terrain demands a high use of mortars.
The situation north of Klieshievka seems to have changed little with the Russians making a small but significant advance into a new area to place more pressure on the Ukrainian forces holding what’s left of the trenches on top of the hill west of the devastated village. This is all that’s holding control of the area east of it. If Ukraine loses it then its positions east of the village are not really viable.
Ukraine launched a successful counter attack around Svatove and drove the Russians back from several positions.
However in the south east of the Avdivka salient, the Russians appear to have pushed deeper into the dacha area and now have a spike of territory deep into the front. It’s bounded by heavily wooded land to its right flank and open land to its left. The thrust follows a road into Avdivka and the development is not good news. The problem counter attacking it is that any deployment attempting it is easy to see and its mined.
The biggest concern is that the Zenit site, a former series of nuclear weapons bunkers from the Cold War, and heavily defended - a lynchpin since 2014 of the defence in this area, may either be in serious danger of being cut off or has already been taken by Russian forces. Confirmation of its status is hopefully coming today. Ukraine will not have wanted to give it up easily. However its position is close to untenable. Have no doubt that losing the Zenit site is very bad news - but we should know by tomorrow if it’s still Ukrainian.
This is what the Russians have learned - don’t assault places that are unnecessarily difficult unless you have to, go around and make them untenable and force a withdrawal that way.
Why is Zenit important? It has some of the densest minefields in Ukraine. You cannot attack from the south or the east of it and even from the west is a challenge. However the new Russian advance spike into Avdivka gives them the ability to attack it from the north where the minefield is thin or non-existent.
If they take Zenit then a good portion of the southern defence collapses, and the only intact paved road left into Avdivka would become untenable, other farm trails and roads are unusable this time of year. Zenit is on the high ground overlooking all of this - loosing it, as I’ve said, is beyond bad news. It may presage the end of Avdivka in the coming months.
Russian sources admit that the Ukrainian forces are fighting, counter attacking and doing everything they can to slow or reverse the situation. The problem is the Russians then move their operation to a new sector and start another operation - which happened in the east of the salient yesterday, though it got nowhere.
So it’s been a challenging day or so. The Zenit situation developed quickly as the Russian strike north up the road has been sudden - possibly exceeding their own expectations which is why it’s not been followed up so quickly.
Ironic facts come home to roost at times like this. Even if they wanted to Ukraine can’t attack from the left side of the incursion because of their own minefields. Tactically the Russians have played this rather well, and Ukraine has been outmanoeuvred. We can only hope the advance is contained and Zenit isn’t lost to a forced withdrawal. It’s basically in a dangerous salient.
Slava Ukraini !
FRONTLINE 23-24 JANUARY : ZENIT CRISIS?
There’s been a lot of fighting but no advancing on the northern front - the only notable increase in combat being at Vesele north of Bakhmut, where the terrain demands a high use of mortars.
The situation north of Klieshievka seems to have changed little with the Russians making a small but significant advance into a new area to place more pressure on the Ukrainian forces holding what’s left of the trenches on top of the hill west of the devastated village. This is all that’s holding control of the area east of it. If Ukraine loses it then its positions east of the village are not really viable.
Ukraine launched a successful counter attack around Svatove and drove the Russians back from several positions.
However in the south east of the Avdivka salient, the Russians appear to have pushed deeper into the dacha area and now have a spike of territory deep into the front. It’s bounded by heavily wooded land to its right flank and open land to its left. The thrust follows a road into Avdivka and the development is not good news. The problem counter attacking it is that any deployment attempting it is easy to see and its mined.
The biggest concern is that the Zenit site, a former series of nuclear weapons bunkers from the Cold War, and heavily defended - a lynchpin since 2014 of the defence in this area, may either be in serious danger of being cut off or has already been taken by Russian forces. Confirmation of its status is hopefully coming today. Ukraine will not have wanted to give it up easily. However its position is close to untenable. Have no doubt that losing the Zenit site is very bad news - but we should know by tomorrow if it’s still Ukrainian.
This is what the Russians have learned - don’t assault places that are unnecessarily difficult unless you have to, go around and make them untenable and force a withdrawal that way.
Why is Zenit important? It has some of the densest minefields in Ukraine. You cannot attack from the south or the east of it and even from the west is a challenge. However the new Russian advance spike into Avdivka gives them the ability to attack it from the north where the minefield is thin or non-existent.
If they take Zenit then a good portion of the southern defence collapses, and the only intact paved road left into Avdivka would become untenable, other farm trails and roads are unusable this time of year. Zenit is on the high ground overlooking all of this - loosing it, as I’ve said, is beyond bad news. It may presage the end of Avdivka in the coming months.
Russian sources admit that the Ukrainian forces are fighting, counter attacking and doing everything they can to slow or reverse the situation. The problem is the Russians then move their operation to a new sector and start another operation - which happened in the east of the salient yesterday, though it got nowhere.
So it’s been a challenging day or so. The Zenit situation developed quickly as the Russian strike north up the road has been sudden - possibly exceeding their own expectations which is why it’s not been followed up so quickly.
Ironic facts come home to roost at times like this. Even if they wanted to Ukraine can’t attack from the left side of the incursion because of their own minefields. Tactically the Russians have played this rather well, and Ukraine has been outmanoeuvred. We can only hope the advance is contained and Zenit isn’t lost to a forced withdrawal. It’s basically in a dangerous salient.
Slava Ukraini !
cleavers
Moderator
Somebody in the US should just take the horrible **** out in a tragic accident while he is there.
BlueRodent
Well-Known Member
The US are total shitheads. They're hanging Ukraine out to dry by withholding funding.
JOGAMIGMOG
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What a disgrace this war is.
ultimateharold
Well-Known Member
Mate it happen.
Apparently the UK is trying to buy Taurus from Germany so as to transfer them to Ukraine as Germany have shown zero backbone.
Seems my tax zloty are going towards creating the next bulwark against Russia and I don't mind one bit. Picked a daft time to leave Manc tho it seems.
grunge
Well-Known Member
I think it’s more that we are buying Taurus to allow us to sent more Storm shadows. Us back filling out stock. Or at least that was suggested on something I read.
BlueAnorak
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Black Sea Oil Teminal at Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai on the Black Sea hit overnight.
BlueAnorak
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More stuff:
More Russian stuff blowing up: Russian claims about downed transport plane disputed
The big news since yesterday is the downing of a Russian Il-76 military transport plane near Belgorod. The Russians claim it was carrying Ukrainian POWs who were to be exchanged. Ukraine says the plane was carrying S-300 missiles. And the plane had...
www.dailykos.com