Russian invasion of Ukraine

Scottyboi said:
From "The Analyst":

UPDATE 2-3 FEBRUARY

It’s been a bad week for the Russians - a really bad week.
The depth and scale of the assault on Crimea expanded yesterday as more detail emerged about the missile strikes across the peninsula, particularly on the airbase north of Sevastopol.
The death of a commanding general was just one result. What became clear was that the S-400 systems designed to protect the peninsula have failed in their jobs - largely because the Ukrainians destroyed all of the early warning radars the Russians stationed on the peninsula, then sank the corvette that was trying to provide some kind of early warning cover. That forced the
S-400’s into using their own radars and revealing themselves.
That in turn made them vulnerable to decoy missiles that they quickly engaged and HARM’s followed forcing the S-400’s to switch off as Storm Shadows blasted the airfield and it’s command centre as well as the central command bunkers at Yevapatoria.
The failure of the S-400 to do its job because of the risk to itself has become the subject of widespread criticism in the Russian milblogs. Much of its problem is its such a valuable system they can’t afford to lose, but it it’s also a lack of close range anti-air that works. The Pantsir is not very good if there is even one available.
The battles around Novomikhailivka north east of Vuhledar have been going on for some time. Russia managed at high cost to reach the defence lines on the southern edge of the village - but the cost over several long cold weeks has been increasingly high. It’s now all come to an end with a Ukrainian counter attack that drove them all the way back to their start lines. Further Russian attempts to try the same thing further round to the south resulted in mass casualties and even more equipment losses - almost all at the hands of drones and mines. Again, this is being seen as another example of command failure by Russian milblogs which have become very vocal on these two subjects.
Their frustration is that no matter what they try, progress is either incredibly costly or non-existent and the price paid isn’t even close to offering what might callously be described as value. There is also a growing push back at the death toll. Now verging on 400,000 after two years it’s starting to resonate at home.
Every death affects roughly ten people back home directly and another ten indirectly. 400,000 x 20 means that some 8 million Russians have a relationship with someone who died on the front and it’s probably twice that in reality. They may not be willing to ask the questions that need asking, but discontent simmers. Even more so when the state doesn’t pay up compensation or acknowledge those deaths in the first place with any sense of urgency or decency.
Add to all these woes the EU funding agreement for Ukraine, Sweden likely to fully join NATO very soon as Hungary stops dragging its feet, the fact that while the frontlines are barely moving Ukraine has utterly humiliated Russia in Crimea this week, and it’s all looking like a war Russia just can’t win.
The Crimea humiliation is seriously upsetting to Russians generally. They see Crimea as a stolen land that they got back - it’s the warm holiday heartland of their family histories back to the soviet era. Even Navalny said he would never give it back. To find it’s becoming progressively untenable, that its strategic value is actually becoming a burden, is hard to understand or believe.
For centuries he who holds Crimea effectively controls the Black Sea.
Modern weapons have changed that situation. Ukrainian imagination and flexibility combined with those weapons has given them effective command of the waters and skies over the eastern Black Sea without as much as having a single viable warship to their name. It’s a hard pill for the Russians to swallow. It’s also why peace without the return of Crimea remains unthinkable to both sides.

Slava Ukraini !
Click to expand...
a week before the Russian elections would be a fine time to take out Putins Bridge,give Russians something to think on.
 
Scottyboi said:
Any truth in this German blues?

❗️Assistant to Bundestag deputy, Vladimir Sergienko, works for the FSB!! - Der Spiegel

Journalists received correspondence from deputy assistant, Evgeniy Shmidt, on social networks and identified his contact person, FSB Colonel Ilya Vechtomov.

According to the correspondence, Sergienko reported on his actions to him, coordinated further steps and received funding from him.

Carrying out the task of a curator, Sergienko ensured that the parliamentary faction Alternative für Deutschland filed a lawsuit with the German Federal Constitutional Court to stop the supply of tanks to Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Yes true, but known since last summer and not a big story. He isn't allowed into parliament building anymore and is losing his German pass as he said he is UKR but his russian pass has been found at Hamburg airport security check ;)

russian influence in German left and right wing parties is concerning though, esp. in Eastern Germany where brains were exposed way too long to russian lies.
 
Last edited:
Avdiivka.......
I am told "It is difficult".
The Russians now attack 24/7.
They send 16 Brigades/Units/Regiments,all day and night...These are constantly replenished with more troops and equipment as it/they are lost...and it is a lot.
110th Mechanized Brigade defend the entire East of the city.....47th Mech,the North and 53rd Mech the South,all backed up by multiple other Regiments.
To put "It is difficult" into perspective...
In the 34 days of 2024...Avdiivka has had just short of 700 "bombs" dropped on it from Aircraft.
This does not include missiles,Tank fire,Mortar fire,Artillery fire or the relentless Salvo's from MLRS.
Russia is trying to exhaust Ukrainian Forces at Avdiivka.
What Russia will not disclose to their people....The dead.....MANY.

HEROYAM SLAVA.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
Avdiivka.......
I am told "It is difficult".
The Russians now attack 24/7.
They send 16 Brigades/Units/Regiments,all day and night...These are constantly replenished with more troops and equipment as it/they are lost...and it is a lot.
110th Mechanized Brigade defend the entire East of the city.....47th Mech,the North and 53rd Mech the South,all backed up by multiple other Regiments.
To put "It is difficult" into perspective...
In the 34 days of 2024...Avdiivka has had just short of 700 "bombs" dropped on it from Aircraft.
This does not include missiles,Tank fire,Mortar fire,Artillery fire or the relentless Salvo's from MLRS.
Russia is trying to exhaust Ukrainian Forces at Avdiivka.
What Russia will not disclose to their people....The dead.....MANY.

HEROYAM SLAVA.
Click to expand...

Disgusting the lack of care for their own the ruskies are showing, but fuck em, hope your cousin and that hold on there and break them!
 
Map of War: Ukrainian soldiers steadfastly hold the defense of Kupyansk causing losses to the Russian Armed Forces.

In the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces continue to contain the enemy who is trying to climb to Synkivka and Ivanivka.

In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian defenders hold their positions and repelled 2 attacks of the occupiers.

In Avdiivka the enemy is trying to dislodge Ukrainian units from their positions and to encircle them. 29 attacks were repelled.
 
A long read on the effects the sanctions and corruption are having on the russian war machine back home.

From "The Analyst":

RUSSIAN STRATEGIC WEAPONS PRODUCTION FALLS SHARPLY

Russian is very much dependent for its great power status on its nuclear weapons. A recent review of what they have claimed and lauded compared to the somewhat starker realities, show a strained industrial base. Facing lack of private investment, a shortage of state funds, insolvency, manpower shortages caused by mobilisation, international sanctions and an inability to overcome technical delays on one side. On the other state giants such as Roscosmos which make sections of the strategic Sarmat missile for instance, have lost 50% of their workforce due to lack of state funds and resources, and the complete disappearance of foreign contracts for satellites and space launches. On top of that rampant corruption has reared its head with no less than six serious cases of multi-million dollar level fraud haunting the company. Most of those cases are bogged down in corruption as those up the chain and down it, do their best to sideline investigators.
One of the suppliers who provide the primary stage of the Sarmat missile, Proton-PM, is on the point of bankruptcy, unable to pay its suppliers and barely getting by let alone supplying dozens of missile sections. Only one missile is actually expected to enter service this year, despite it being a high priority.
The second stage producer, Chemical Automatics Design Bureau, is actually bankrupt and going through the court process to dissolve its business. The reason? ‘A chronic shortage of working capital’. That’s no state or bank funds and interest rates being so high it can’t afford to borrow. Add to that the state is terrible at paying its bills and these companies cannot survive.
The Kazan Aviation Plant is supposed to be upgrading ten of the old 1980’s Tu-160 strategic bomber to ‘M’ standard and has only delivered one. The company is also supposed to be building ten new ones to the same standard having restarted the line.
So far only one test plane has been delivered and the most they can produce is 1.25 per year - if they get the approval in 2024. A second aircraft is said to be under testing. The target was to build ten per year through to 2027. That seems beyond impossible at present. The government just doesn’t have the money. In addition the modernised plant was supposed to have been finished in 2020 but COVID delayed it. Then sanctions hit in 2022 and the availability of machine tools and equipment from western sources dried up.
The latest Borei-A class SSBN is also way behind schedule - two more were supposed to be laid down. The Knyaz Pozarsky was supposed to enter service in 2023 but will only just manage late 2024 - and even then she may have no missiles unless another Delta-IV class is decommissioned to provide them. The eleventh and twelfth in the 16 planned submarine class, each of which carries 16 SLBM’s, were due be laid down for completion in the 2030’s but it hasn’t happened. They haven’t been cancelled but if they don’t get started then the experienced labour force will likely be considered mobilisation fodder and their skills permanently lost.
So we see above how in real life the sanctions on technology and mechanical/engineering equipment, technology and finance have seriously impacted Russian nuclear weapons plans. This equipment should never have been sold to them in the first place and should never be ever again.
Imagine too, how deep these problems run in Russian military industries generally. Over time the economic costs have and are hitting ever deeper into the Russian military industrial complex. Despite their best efforts to get around it, huge capital intensive and high tech industries are buckling under the strain. Government funding is clearly stretched - even for their pet projects that are considered next to god in terms of national prestige and importance.
It may not look like it every day, but slowly and surely the sanctions are digging deep. We need to pile on the pressure. Not letting up. It DOES make a difference!
 
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