Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
FRONTLINE OVERVIEW
In Kharkiv the Russians were pushed back in the northeast, and central areas of Vochansk as well as Staritsya to the west of the city, following a Ukrainian offensive to push back and take more ground.
Fighting is incredibly heavy but there’s no doubt the Russians are in the back foot here and are struggling to retain their hold.
In the eastern sector of the front at Hiybolke, the Ukrainians seem to have gained and retained more ground around that settlement.
The Avdivka sector continues to be a weak spot.
I’ve been trying to find out what the specific issues are here. Is it ammo? Is it lack of something that’s causing the Ukrainians to give ground? And the answer seems to be that ammunition is no longer the issue - if anything it’s raw manpower. They just don’t have enough men to sacrifice even one to hold a position. This has led to a progressive but slow fighting retreat as the Russians press with numbers of men - their only real ace advantage.
The same is happening at Tortetsk - the frontlines are inadequately manned and they just don’t have the numbers to stop so many Russians.
There have been artillery issues too, but almost everyone agrees the shell starvation scenarios are now mostly a thing of the past.
The first batches of newly mobilised recruits following the new laws, are barely at the end of their six week initial training and putting them straight in the front line was never intended - posting to units in their rear was the first part with introduction to the frontline planned with more experienced troops.
The Russians may not be able to mount some grand offensive at present but they do continually exploit weakness when they find it.
While Kharkiv is important, because the Russians cannot be allowed to obtain a permanent foothold, there is no question that it is sapping Ukrainian resources from other areas.
While the war is one of attrition, the majority of that attrition is taking place in Kharkiv right now. The price of that attrition for Ukraine, is that it must allow itself to accept losses elsewhere.
I keep hearing that ‘oh it’s just a few meters here or there’, but it’s a few meters they can’t easily take back and over time that becomes kilometers. Sooner or later you have to decide so far and no more.
There have been incidences on the map when I have seen clearly difficult Russian advances out on a limb that should have been cut off more or less instantly in rapid counter attacks to stop them - yet nothing happens. There aren’t enough mobile forces or men to make it happen. Ukraine to me, lacks the reserves or depth - or is unwilling to commit them until the last minute. That minute never seems to come so they just can’t be there.
This is a problem. Incremental Russian gains at high cost are draining the life out of them, but Ukraine hasn’t got the resources to stop them permanently either. Neither does it have indefinite space to retreat into. You have to draw a line somewhere and stop the Russians at all costs.
Kharkiv is that spot right now. But the price is a steady loss of key land in other areas. The fact is they too must be stopped. The question is with what and how?
Slava Ukraini !
FRONTLINE OVERVIEW
In Kharkiv the Russians were pushed back in the northeast, and central areas of Vochansk as well as Staritsya to the west of the city, following a Ukrainian offensive to push back and take more ground.
Fighting is incredibly heavy but there’s no doubt the Russians are in the back foot here and are struggling to retain their hold.
In the eastern sector of the front at Hiybolke, the Ukrainians seem to have gained and retained more ground around that settlement.
The Avdivka sector continues to be a weak spot.
I’ve been trying to find out what the specific issues are here. Is it ammo? Is it lack of something that’s causing the Ukrainians to give ground? And the answer seems to be that ammunition is no longer the issue - if anything it’s raw manpower. They just don’t have enough men to sacrifice even one to hold a position. This has led to a progressive but slow fighting retreat as the Russians press with numbers of men - their only real ace advantage.
The same is happening at Tortetsk - the frontlines are inadequately manned and they just don’t have the numbers to stop so many Russians.
There have been artillery issues too, but almost everyone agrees the shell starvation scenarios are now mostly a thing of the past.
The first batches of newly mobilised recruits following the new laws, are barely at the end of their six week initial training and putting them straight in the front line was never intended - posting to units in their rear was the first part with introduction to the frontline planned with more experienced troops.
The Russians may not be able to mount some grand offensive at present but they do continually exploit weakness when they find it.
While Kharkiv is important, because the Russians cannot be allowed to obtain a permanent foothold, there is no question that it is sapping Ukrainian resources from other areas.
While the war is one of attrition, the majority of that attrition is taking place in Kharkiv right now. The price of that attrition for Ukraine, is that it must allow itself to accept losses elsewhere.
I keep hearing that ‘oh it’s just a few meters here or there’, but it’s a few meters they can’t easily take back and over time that becomes kilometers. Sooner or later you have to decide so far and no more.
There have been incidences on the map when I have seen clearly difficult Russian advances out on a limb that should have been cut off more or less instantly in rapid counter attacks to stop them - yet nothing happens. There aren’t enough mobile forces or men to make it happen. Ukraine to me, lacks the reserves or depth - or is unwilling to commit them until the last minute. That minute never seems to come so they just can’t be there.
This is a problem. Incremental Russian gains at high cost are draining the life out of them, but Ukraine hasn’t got the resources to stop them permanently either. Neither does it have indefinite space to retreat into. You have to draw a line somewhere and stop the Russians at all costs.
Kharkiv is that spot right now. But the price is a steady loss of key land in other areas. The fact is they too must be stopped. The question is with what and how?
Slava Ukraini !
