Last one.
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
FRONTLINE FAILS ON BOTH SIDES
Sometimes you have to stand back and look at the whole forest of problems with fresh eyes and ignore the individual trees. The last two weeks have seen some major developments.
In the north, another Russian cross border attack seems to have been contained for now.
In the Liptsy combat zone we have seen Ukraine sustain their defence and continue the attrition policy rather than make any offensive gains, other than consolidating control over Hibolyke.
This area has seen some extraordinary Russian behaviour. Troops deployed while on crutches and still in effect, invalids who any civilised society would have sent home. Nepalese and Sri Lankan forces deployed as mercenaries, and Russian recruited Wagner originated mercenaries from Africa - one resorting to fighting off a drone with a stick. They don’t seem to have provided Russia anything more than targets for Ukraine to shoot at.
In the Vovchansk area, it’s again clear that the Russians can’t advance, they try occasionally but face counterattacks and resistance. Yet again the Ukrainians seem fine with largely defensive operations and, as I said back in June 25th, attriting the Russians who just won’t give up. The Russians that have been cut off in the aggregate plant occasionally get a drone or two of supplies, but Ukraine isn’t wasting time or resources forcing them out, which would be costly. Eventually attrition will see them slowly die off.
Meanwhile Ukraine is said to be preparing an offensive to cut the Russians off from the city. At the same time the Russians are trying to build defences in the open areas this offensive may have to pass through.
The most worrying news is yet another Ukrainian rotational failure - how does this happen after so much practice at this stage in the war?
A brigade change in Tortestk area was exploited by the Russians who advanced quickly but were stopped up against Ukrainian defences within a week, end of June into July. Yet while this was going on the Russians bombed the life out of the town of New York - the name of which seems to be some kind of motivation for them. They threw everything they had from the air at this area and the valley that leads north to it. Massive FAB-3000 bombs have levelled much of the southern parts of the town and the Russians have forced another of their successful spike attacks into the valley. Yet again using an underground passageway to come up behind Ukrainian troops, this time one they seem to have been digging for months.
So far the attack has made good progress up the river valley, and while the Ukrainian view is that they have fire control over what the Russians are doing, and they’ve deployed a brigade to the ‘pointy end’ of the Russian attack, they haven’t done what needs to be done.
This Russian advance has severely compromised the Ukrainian forces to the east of it, which the Russians will know. Will someone please tell me why there has been no counter attack at the base of this narrow and easily compromised salient? Why was the Ukrainian brigade used for defence at the top while an almost 10km deep and barely 2km wide salient in a valley, with fire control over it, has been allowed to develop at this pace?
Not for the first time old Russian school of thought training has failed to teach the Ukrainians that radical Russian attacks need equally radical solutions before they can develop flanking defences. This should have been cut off by now - but it’s probably too late. This is the third time the Russians have gotten away with this tactic and the third time Ukraine has fallen for it. A salient of this length and width should have been throttled by now as a matter of extreme urgency. It shows a lack of awareness that it’s the source of the attack that needs dealing with, not the target of the attack that needs to be defended so aggressively. I simply cannot get my head around how the defending commanders simply bend to accommodate the Russian attack rather than deal with its source. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES…
The Russians don’t have the flexibility or resource to manage both ends of the salient.
The bombing should have alerted the Ukrainians to what was happening, but the Russian attack seems to have surprised them. Where was the air support so willingly provided in the Liptsy area or the resources when this attack was launched?
Further south at Urazhine, which this time last year the Ukrainians were slowly taking during their failed summer offensive, the Russians have made significant gains, taking back most of it over several weeks.
In other areas small but persistent Russian gains keep eating away at the front lines.
We often laugh at the Russians and their primitive, careless and uncivilised behaviour, their brutality and lack of humanity. We make defensive success of how the Ukrainians have managed to deal with the latest Russian surprise attack - even when it was signalled a week or more in advance and yet nothing was done to disrupt it or seemingly plan for it, let alone react to it in a way that could have stopped it before it got so deeply into the defences it couldn’t be dislodged.
Ukraine has some very good commanders - but they are few and far between. Whoever is mismanaging the New York problem needs replacing - it should never have been allowed to get this far.
Slava Ukraini
!
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
