Russian invasion of Ukraine
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lee_wsm
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Hopefully Hungary use this to push out Orban
BlueAnorak
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Annieli is back...
Ukraine Invasion Day 877: drone farms still growing
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 17 of 18. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 16 Shahed-136/131 drones from Kursk Oblast and two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles and...
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BlueAnorak
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Stuff 19/07:
Russian stuff blowing up: WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years
The situation in Vovchansk along the border northeast of Kharkiv remains in flux. Russia is attempting to reach its troops who are surrounded inside the aggregate plant in the town. Currently they can only be supplied by drones. Despite losing a...
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BlueAnorak
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Day 878 Review:
Ukraine Invasion Day 878: combat continues
Russian forces conducted limited missile strikes against Ukraine on July 18 and 19. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down an Iskander ballistic missile that Russian forces launched from occupied Crimea targeting Odesa Oblast on...
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BlueAnorak
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Yakerty Yak.... Can't shoot back...
www.forbes.com
‘Isn’t It Time To Shoot Him Down?’ Russians Grow Frustrated With Ukraine’s Yak-52 Drone-Killer.
A Yakovlev training plane has been dogfighting with, and shooting down, Russian surveillance drones—World War I-style.
www.forbes.com
BlueAnorak
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Stuff 20/07:
Shelling Children's playgrounds - fucking disgraceful.
Russian stuff blowing up: Drone attack sparks massive fire at Russian air base
Burn, baby, burn Remember that nuclear plant in Rostov where folks were freaking out because there were rumors of a radiation leak? Well, it still can’t power the city of Krasnodar. Folks won’t protest a war that kills/wounds hundreds of thousands of...
www.dailykos.com
Shelling Children's playgrounds - fucking disgraceful.
Last edited:
Scottyboi
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From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX
GRINDING RUSSIAN ADVANCES
Vovchansk shows no change in the past day. The fight remains intensive. I think some commentators underestimate the challenge here, and the effort the Ukrainians are putting in at the cost of losses elsewhere. That’s a strategic decision they chose to make, with good reason.
Along the Kremina-Svatove line the Russians alternate their efforts but over time they grind slowly forward taken small areas of territory, with the aim of reaching the Sherevets River. Yesterday another such action occurred. Territory around Ivanivke and Kislivka along the rail line has been taken in the past day.
Terney/Makivka are now under pressure again - areas Ukraine has fought hard to defend. Russian activity here has resumed after a long pause to pour in more troops. The Russians are very slowly advancing on a 6.5km front. They have advanced between 0.5 and 1.0km.
The days when either side could rapidly counter strike into a recently taken area are gone. There aren’t the vehicles or quite frankly the secrecy, when under constant drone observation, to allow any kind of surprise.
Even so we have to remember that the scale of Russian losses is appalling. The death rate is running at 1000+ per day as an average.
Further south the Russians took around 20kmsq in a single day bringing them up to Ivano Dar’Ivka, according to Russian sources and a dubious flag on building that could have been achieved with a drone. Even if they haven’t yet got this far, they are way over half way towards it, crossing open but difficult terrain. Quite what has happened here the Ukrainians aren’t saying. The target would be a very significant high ground area. It’s good for Ukrainians to defend from, but would be seriously bad news if the Russians took it, opening up a good deal of territory to their fire control west of it. It would place Sversk in danger and if that falls then the whole Ukrainian position in the Sebrianski forest becomes untenable. That then opens the road to the vital town of Sloviansk - the primary objective the Russians lost in September 2022.
At Chasiv Yar the Russians have pretty much reached the canal along the whole sector. It’s not exactly full of water but it’s a steep sided obstacle that’s difficult to cross on a good day, let alone when the Ukrainians are contesting every metre. The Russians are taking very heavy casualties here, but it doesn’t stop them. They just don’t care.
Further south along the Teretsk area yet more small gains have been made. Heavy use of infantry and high losses have the penalty Russia suffers - but again they just do not give a damn about the losses as long as they gain ground. It’s a primitive and brutal approach but it works.
In the Sumy area, Russian forces continue to push north and south from the captured town.
At New York the Russians have had a setback where the Ukrainians seem to have blunted the arrowhead of their advance into the town. I would still argue this is the worst type of manoeuvre and plays into Russian hands. Attacking the strongest point of the Russian advance is bad strategy- they should have attacked the flanks of what is still a relatively thin and awkward salient. But this is old style Russian type tactics that so many Ukrainian generals were schooled in. Why attack the steel hammer head - the hardest strongest part, when you could break the thinner, lighter wooden shaft that holds it? But they don’t.
Down from NY, in the adjacent Pokrovsk region, Russians have pushed both north and west.
Overall this has been a bad summer for territory loss, let’s not mess around or deny it. The long slow and inconsistent flow of American aid only now reaching the front in any quantity - much of it being used to form new units with the recently conscripted army undergoing training.
Yes, it’s been accepted that Ukraine would suffer this type of loss this year without fresh troops but those are finally about to be deployed.
Yet I question many of the strategic choices Ukraine has made. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES
I certainly question their overt willingness to stick their head in the lions mouth rather than stabbing him in the side.
The overall strategy is one of attrition. Ukraine of killing Russians in their thousands and destroying their equipment, Russia taking land no matter the human cost. The fact is both of these play to the other side. Russia can afford the losses in men and Ukraine cannot afford the loss of ground. Ukraine may have destroyed much of Russia’s equipment but it can’t keep up with Russian recruitment filling the trenches with more men. The Russians have basically understood this and know it’s their ace card - they have used it in every war for the last 110 years.
Here is Ukraine’s problem. It either recruits another 250,000 men on top of the 150,000 plus it’s already adding, or it gets vastly more US and European equipment - way beyond current levels, to tip this war back the other way.
I’ve always believed that can be done - I still do. But it takes time and willing governments to move up to another level of production and expense arming Ukraine to achieve a victory. Ukraine hasn’t lost and Russia certainly hasn’t won.
Yet eventually - and Putin and Zelensky and western leaders know this: he who controls a thing owns a thing. Land is what this war is now largely about. Russia wants out of this war as it is, so it can reframe its next attempt over five or so years and go again. The more land it has the stronger its negotiating position. It’s that simple.
Slava Ukraini !
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
GRINDING RUSSIAN ADVANCES
Vovchansk shows no change in the past day. The fight remains intensive. I think some commentators underestimate the challenge here, and the effort the Ukrainians are putting in at the cost of losses elsewhere. That’s a strategic decision they chose to make, with good reason.
Along the Kremina-Svatove line the Russians alternate their efforts but over time they grind slowly forward taken small areas of territory, with the aim of reaching the Sherevets River. Yesterday another such action occurred. Territory around Ivanivke and Kislivka along the rail line has been taken in the past day.
Terney/Makivka are now under pressure again - areas Ukraine has fought hard to defend. Russian activity here has resumed after a long pause to pour in more troops. The Russians are very slowly advancing on a 6.5km front. They have advanced between 0.5 and 1.0km.
The days when either side could rapidly counter strike into a recently taken area are gone. There aren’t the vehicles or quite frankly the secrecy, when under constant drone observation, to allow any kind of surprise.
Even so we have to remember that the scale of Russian losses is appalling. The death rate is running at 1000+ per day as an average.
Further south the Russians took around 20kmsq in a single day bringing them up to Ivano Dar’Ivka, according to Russian sources and a dubious flag on building that could have been achieved with a drone. Even if they haven’t yet got this far, they are way over half way towards it, crossing open but difficult terrain. Quite what has happened here the Ukrainians aren’t saying. The target would be a very significant high ground area. It’s good for Ukrainians to defend from, but would be seriously bad news if the Russians took it, opening up a good deal of territory to their fire control west of it. It would place Sversk in danger and if that falls then the whole Ukrainian position in the Sebrianski forest becomes untenable. That then opens the road to the vital town of Sloviansk - the primary objective the Russians lost in September 2022.
At Chasiv Yar the Russians have pretty much reached the canal along the whole sector. It’s not exactly full of water but it’s a steep sided obstacle that’s difficult to cross on a good day, let alone when the Ukrainians are contesting every metre. The Russians are taking very heavy casualties here, but it doesn’t stop them. They just don’t care.
Further south along the Teretsk area yet more small gains have been made. Heavy use of infantry and high losses have the penalty Russia suffers - but again they just do not give a damn about the losses as long as they gain ground. It’s a primitive and brutal approach but it works.
In the Sumy area, Russian forces continue to push north and south from the captured town.
At New York the Russians have had a setback where the Ukrainians seem to have blunted the arrowhead of their advance into the town. I would still argue this is the worst type of manoeuvre and plays into Russian hands. Attacking the strongest point of the Russian advance is bad strategy- they should have attacked the flanks of what is still a relatively thin and awkward salient. But this is old style Russian type tactics that so many Ukrainian generals were schooled in. Why attack the steel hammer head - the hardest strongest part, when you could break the thinner, lighter wooden shaft that holds it? But they don’t.
Down from NY, in the adjacent Pokrovsk region, Russians have pushed both north and west.
Overall this has been a bad summer for territory loss, let’s not mess around or deny it. The long slow and inconsistent flow of American aid only now reaching the front in any quantity - much of it being used to form new units with the recently conscripted army undergoing training.
Yes, it’s been accepted that Ukraine would suffer this type of loss this year without fresh troops but those are finally about to be deployed.
Yet I question many of the strategic choices Ukraine has made. CONTINUES…
CONTINUES
I certainly question their overt willingness to stick their head in the lions mouth rather than stabbing him in the side.
The overall strategy is one of attrition. Ukraine of killing Russians in their thousands and destroying their equipment, Russia taking land no matter the human cost. The fact is both of these play to the other side. Russia can afford the losses in men and Ukraine cannot afford the loss of ground. Ukraine may have destroyed much of Russia’s equipment but it can’t keep up with Russian recruitment filling the trenches with more men. The Russians have basically understood this and know it’s their ace card - they have used it in every war for the last 110 years.
Here is Ukraine’s problem. It either recruits another 250,000 men on top of the 150,000 plus it’s already adding, or it gets vastly more US and European equipment - way beyond current levels, to tip this war back the other way.
I’ve always believed that can be done - I still do. But it takes time and willing governments to move up to another level of production and expense arming Ukraine to achieve a victory. Ukraine hasn’t lost and Russia certainly hasn’t won.
Yet eventually - and Putin and Zelensky and western leaders know this: he who controls a thing owns a thing. Land is what this war is now largely about. Russia wants out of this war as it is, so it can reframe its next attempt over five or so years and go again. The more land it has the stronger its negotiating position. It’s that simple.
Slava Ukraini !
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX