Russian invasion of Ukraine

From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic) X: MilStratOnX

UKRAINE’S CRUISE MISSILE

The Neptune missile, designed by the Luch Design Bureau shocked everyone when it struck the Moskva. Indeed it can be said that hardly anyone believed it could have been a Ukrainian missile that carried out the operation. In fact, it turned out it was a sophisticated wave skimmer capable of very low altitudes and able to strike waterline targets. With low observability to radar to avoid point defence systems it came as a shock as it also seemed to have target recognition capabilities.
Since then Neptune has proven repeatedly that it’s able to cross land and strike other ships and targets with relative impunity.
Its original range was 280km. Fired from land based 4 canister trucks.
The sea attack missile is subsonic with a 150kg warhead carried at a speed of 900kmph.
Neptune is also capable of air and ship launched operations.
The new land attack version has an extended range of around 350km.
The problem with attacking loans targets with any type of self guided missile system has long been understood. Ground clutter is a problem, forcing targeting to follow the GPS route for accuracy. However that too has now become an issue by itself because of suppression and on board target recognition, micro-inertial navigation, have all vastly improved accuracy.
Ukraine is now admitting that Krasnodar oil refineries and ports, as well electrical transformers have all been attacked by the new land attack version.
Neptune’s have been used against several other pipelines, oil refineries, storage sites and airfield support equipment such as power and utilities.
So far these missiles have been low volume production, but at least 40 have been sent through the initial test phase and contracts are set to be issued for serial production. As Ukraine uses a decentralised production system to ensure no single strike can damage every production element - I have unverified information that the missiles are only married to their three key parts, propulsion, guidance and warhead, right before they are deployed, which would make sense in avoiding whole missile loses before use.
If these enter serial production this year, they stand to give Russian targets across the extended front and it it’s rear serious problems.
This is a situation Russia simply never imagined when it took on this war of conquest, now so badly out of its control.
While the modified Neptune is no ATACMS, and doesn’t have that kind of flexibility in warhead options, being able to launch attack missiles that operate below the effective countermeasures Russia can deploy, against crucial military targets with relative impunity on an increasing scale, has to be deeply concerning to Russian interests. They will finally face what they have been doing to Ukraine as bit by bit their strategic power systems, oil and gas processing, airbases and facilities are destroyed and become unviable to repair as long as the war continues.
And you can bet the Ukrainians won’t just stop there. Increased ranges, improved accuracy and increasing numbers will create a situation Russia has no solution to.

Slava Ukraini !
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
 

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