Russian invasion of Ukraine
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BlueAnorak
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BlueAnorak
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Vovchansk strangulation and an inovative explosive hydrogen gss bomb based on old Toyota car batteries:
Inventive Ukraine, Steady Expulsion of Russians from Vovchansk. Toyota Car Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bomb?
The Ukrainians are systematically tightening the noose around the Russian garrison in Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast. According to Def Mon’s most recent geolocated map of that particular battle space, most of the Russian forces(scattered Red dots on the...
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BlueAnorak
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Day 894: Review:
Ukraine Invasion Day 894: drone + missile strikes on oil and fuel depots. RU occupies 17.72% of UKR
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against an oil depot in Rostov Oblast and missile strikes against fuel storage warehouses in occupied Luhansk City on August 4. Russian opposition outlet Astra published footage and reported on August...
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Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From ‘The Analyst’ (Military & Strategic)
AVDIVKA FRONT: BREAKING MOMENTUM
1/2
The Avdivka front developed originally from the collapse of the long held fortified area of the town of Avdivka. Unable to imagine that Avdivka would fall, most defences were built there to defend it over the course of ten years. Ukraine simply didn’t think it could be taken.
Originally of course that was entirely reasonable as a thought, but it was a devastating assumption - and the one thing I cannot abide is assumption. Only fools assume everything stays the same.
The war went from near static to Russian full on invasion and eventually Russia overcame Avdivka through brute force on their side and the peak of weapons shortages due to the block on American aid that could have prevented it, possibly on the Ukrainian. Over time and looking back on how Avdivka was taken, I’m less certain that aid would have stopped its loss.
The collapse of the Avdivka salient led progressively to the situation on what has become known as the Avdivka or Central Front.
The semi-perpetual Ukrainian retreat has been a combination of saving lives at the cost of lost land, and a lack of prepared defences in a very rural area in which to anchor any resistance.
The scale of Russian manpower utilisation has been extraordinarily high. Their losses have been dramatic and intense, a willingness to lose whatever it took to gain as much land as possible - death of thousands means nothing to them.
Western aid undoubtedly contributed to slowing things down. Lack of Ukrainian manpower after two years of bumbling about and ideological hand wringing over mobilisation, is the real cause. Ukraine didn’t and doesn’t have enough men in the field and it has itself to blame. If there is one policy issue that Zelensky and his government screwed up on big time, failure to properly mobilise - and still not doing it to their fullest ability - has been the most egregious mistake.
Ukraine has had no choice but to ‘bend like a reed’ as Tsun Zhu would describe it.
Eventually as you bend, the enemy front expands and his manpower advantage thins out and becomes weak in places, strong in others, eventually his reserve are drawn in, attrited down and the frontal attack starts to fade out.
And that’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
The Russians had transformed the Avdivka command to what they term a Central Manoeuvre Force, giving it unprecedented resources and decision making power to exploit the capture of the city and the weak Ukrainian defences beyond.
They knew they had an opportunity here to make major inroads into Ukraine and they set about doing it.
The Ukrainian forces themselves gave the Russians what they sought - the failed rotation at Ochertyne was a disaster. This literally led to an undefended section of front line.
As an analyst you have to give the credit to the Russians for seeing it, analysing it was not a trap and exploiting it at lightning pace. Let it be a lesson to everyone that by this stage in the war the Russians have become far more adept at seeing and understanding their opportunities, far more rapidly and effectively than we would like to give them credit for. It’s how they go about that exploitation that becomes so destructive to their own forces.
Yet we have to put this all into perspective. Over three months and at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives - the estimate is around 80,000- they advanced just 12km (7.8 miles).
As the advance became slower, they diverted the 27th Motorised brigade from the central part of the front to the north and used it to make a dash for the village of New York, which again took Ukraine by surprise and was again, caused by operational failure during a rotation. Rather than cut off this spike attack from the base they chose to contain the spearhead, which they have barely managed to do - again short on manpower not willpower.
At this point the Russians seemed to have lost the key strategic concept that they had made work so well.
It’s very simple because in the end it’s all about simple maths.
CONTINUES…2/2 CONTINUES
The more you put against a weaker force - the bigger the number you have, the inevitable result will be that you will overcome the defence. They had done this but suddenly changed tack.
They diverted forces south to attack Krasnohirivka - that failed. New York was bogged down, and by taking these forces out of the central front and loosing them in the mire of battle where they could not succeed - the basic numbers game - they weakened their principle battle force expanding the salient. In essence they stopped their own advance, by becoming distracted by objectives they failed to provide with enough force to take. They ‘self-attrited’ and wasted irreplaceable resources against increasingly strong Ukrainian defences fortified by new aid.
In simple terms I think their commander got cold feet. Rather than double down on the main offensive - because he came close to a significant breakthrough, he got distracted by easier targets and a widening of his responsibility area. For whatever reason the Russian command expanded the Central Group of Forces operational area, but without giving them enough to sustain the main operation. Dilution results inevitably, in weakening.
This has now created a wider problem for the Central Group command. They managed a breakthrough in the north of the Avdivka front along a key rail line almost by accident and advanced suddenly, threatening to overwhelm the Ukrainians on the east bank of the Vovcha River and a sizeable reservoir by coming in behind them and forcing their retreat westward. This would allow the centre of the Central Group salient to advance.
However the Ukrainians have had time to ready defences and are better supplied and organised. A giant pincer attack from the north of the salient and the south of it seems almost beyond what the Russians can manage with sufficient force to succeed against defenders far better equipped and prepared than they were. The Russians would have to coordinate their attack in a way they have shown little capability to do - but as a result of stultifying command practices and poor comms equipment.
It seems unlikely the Ukrainians will sit and let themselves get surrounded, they’re far to active to do so.
In short the Russians may make small gains, but the power and pace of their offensives from Pokorovsk (which was largely opportunistic and not well organised), to the south at Krasnohorivka, finally seems to be slowing down dramatically and weakening.
It isn’t over but it’s almost done.
Ukraine has made some damaging mistakes, but not at any point have their soldiers turned away from battle or failed to defend out of lack of courage or fear.
It’s been a hard summer and a hot one. Conditions have been harsh, the heat brutal. Land has been lost but lives have been saved. The road ahead is long.
Victory is coming - I remain sure of it.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
AVDIVKA FRONT: BREAKING MOMENTUM
1/2
The Avdivka front developed originally from the collapse of the long held fortified area of the town of Avdivka. Unable to imagine that Avdivka would fall, most defences were built there to defend it over the course of ten years. Ukraine simply didn’t think it could be taken.
Originally of course that was entirely reasonable as a thought, but it was a devastating assumption - and the one thing I cannot abide is assumption. Only fools assume everything stays the same.
The war went from near static to Russian full on invasion and eventually Russia overcame Avdivka through brute force on their side and the peak of weapons shortages due to the block on American aid that could have prevented it, possibly on the Ukrainian. Over time and looking back on how Avdivka was taken, I’m less certain that aid would have stopped its loss.
The collapse of the Avdivka salient led progressively to the situation on what has become known as the Avdivka or Central Front.
The semi-perpetual Ukrainian retreat has been a combination of saving lives at the cost of lost land, and a lack of prepared defences in a very rural area in which to anchor any resistance.
The scale of Russian manpower utilisation has been extraordinarily high. Their losses have been dramatic and intense, a willingness to lose whatever it took to gain as much land as possible - death of thousands means nothing to them.
Western aid undoubtedly contributed to slowing things down. Lack of Ukrainian manpower after two years of bumbling about and ideological hand wringing over mobilisation, is the real cause. Ukraine didn’t and doesn’t have enough men in the field and it has itself to blame. If there is one policy issue that Zelensky and his government screwed up on big time, failure to properly mobilise - and still not doing it to their fullest ability - has been the most egregious mistake.
Ukraine has had no choice but to ‘bend like a reed’ as Tsun Zhu would describe it.
Eventually as you bend, the enemy front expands and his manpower advantage thins out and becomes weak in places, strong in others, eventually his reserve are drawn in, attrited down and the frontal attack starts to fade out.
And that’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
The Russians had transformed the Avdivka command to what they term a Central Manoeuvre Force, giving it unprecedented resources and decision making power to exploit the capture of the city and the weak Ukrainian defences beyond.
They knew they had an opportunity here to make major inroads into Ukraine and they set about doing it.
The Ukrainian forces themselves gave the Russians what they sought - the failed rotation at Ochertyne was a disaster. This literally led to an undefended section of front line.
As an analyst you have to give the credit to the Russians for seeing it, analysing it was not a trap and exploiting it at lightning pace. Let it be a lesson to everyone that by this stage in the war the Russians have become far more adept at seeing and understanding their opportunities, far more rapidly and effectively than we would like to give them credit for. It’s how they go about that exploitation that becomes so destructive to their own forces.
Yet we have to put this all into perspective. Over three months and at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian lives - the estimate is around 80,000- they advanced just 12km (7.8 miles).
As the advance became slower, they diverted the 27th Motorised brigade from the central part of the front to the north and used it to make a dash for the village of New York, which again took Ukraine by surprise and was again, caused by operational failure during a rotation. Rather than cut off this spike attack from the base they chose to contain the spearhead, which they have barely managed to do - again short on manpower not willpower.
At this point the Russians seemed to have lost the key strategic concept that they had made work so well.
It’s very simple because in the end it’s all about simple maths.
CONTINUES…2/2 CONTINUES
The more you put against a weaker force - the bigger the number you have, the inevitable result will be that you will overcome the defence. They had done this but suddenly changed tack.
They diverted forces south to attack Krasnohirivka - that failed. New York was bogged down, and by taking these forces out of the central front and loosing them in the mire of battle where they could not succeed - the basic numbers game - they weakened their principle battle force expanding the salient. In essence they stopped their own advance, by becoming distracted by objectives they failed to provide with enough force to take. They ‘self-attrited’ and wasted irreplaceable resources against increasingly strong Ukrainian defences fortified by new aid.
In simple terms I think their commander got cold feet. Rather than double down on the main offensive - because he came close to a significant breakthrough, he got distracted by easier targets and a widening of his responsibility area. For whatever reason the Russian command expanded the Central Group of Forces operational area, but without giving them enough to sustain the main operation. Dilution results inevitably, in weakening.
This has now created a wider problem for the Central Group command. They managed a breakthrough in the north of the Avdivka front along a key rail line almost by accident and advanced suddenly, threatening to overwhelm the Ukrainians on the east bank of the Vovcha River and a sizeable reservoir by coming in behind them and forcing their retreat westward. This would allow the centre of the Central Group salient to advance.
However the Ukrainians have had time to ready defences and are better supplied and organised. A giant pincer attack from the north of the salient and the south of it seems almost beyond what the Russians can manage with sufficient force to succeed against defenders far better equipped and prepared than they were. The Russians would have to coordinate their attack in a way they have shown little capability to do - but as a result of stultifying command practices and poor comms equipment.
It seems unlikely the Ukrainians will sit and let themselves get surrounded, they’re far to active to do so.
In short the Russians may make small gains, but the power and pace of their offensives from Pokorovsk (which was largely opportunistic and not well organised), to the south at Krasnohorivka, finally seems to be slowing down dramatically and weakening.
It isn’t over but it’s almost done.
Ukraine has made some damaging mistakes, but not at any point have their soldiers turned away from battle or failed to defend out of lack of courage or fear.
It’s been a hard summer and a hot one. Conditions have been harsh, the heat brutal. Land has been lost but lives have been saved. The road ahead is long.
Victory is coming - I remain sure of it.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
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Video Reviews:
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 31 Oct 2010
- Messages
- 27,993
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 31 Oct 2010
- Messages
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Stuff 05/08:
Russian stuff blowing up: Report says Russia has destroyed 80% of Ukrainian national park
Here’s what’s left of the Morozovsk air base ammunition storage area after Ukraine hit it. If graft and theft were Olympic sports, Russia would have no competition for the gold. 3/ VSK subcontracted another company, KapEnergoStroy SPb, and transferred...
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Governor of Kursk Region:
"Today, information is coming from the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts about attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through into the territory of the Kursk region. Fighters of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prevented a breakthrough of the border."
Heroyam Slava.
"Today, information is coming from the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts about attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to break through into the territory of the Kursk region. Fighters of the Border Service of the FSB of Russia and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prevented a breakthrough of the border."
Heroyam Slava.