BlueAnorak
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What's the purpose of this incursion?
Task & Purpose Video - Good watch:
Task & Purpose Video - Good watch:
Russian invasion of Ukraine
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BlueAnorak
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Nope - Long range drones like the other two airbases last week.
Last edited:
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
MILITARY & STRATEGIC:
IS THIS THE MOST DARING STRATEGIC GAMBLE SO FAR?
We now have a better understanding of this operation and how it unfolded. Planning appear to have been meticulously worked out and a strategy to move forward in an ordered progress is clearly there. What remains a mystery is the purpose of the entire operation. Perhaps that’s the ultimate in strategic genius - but it could just as easily be a fail - only time will tell. We all want the best outcome.
The initial planning was the destruction of the main border crossing which was held by around 300 troops - most surrendered in a panic after being battered by infantry, even abandoning a T-62 in the process. It’s this that we first saw video of.
Meanwhile elite scouting forces were sent rapidly forward in small groups of Strikers to get as far forward as possible and work out what the Russians had to resist with. It was these groups, popping up all over different places well into the Kursk oblast, that caused so much panic behind Russian lines in the first days.
Once the border crossing was secure and the resistance levels determined as non existent in the most part, a secondary force was sent in to capture and hold the border villages flanking the main force which moved quickly towards the town of Sudzha. Within hours they had taken the town as far as the river and seized all the primary objectives of the border villages.
Meanwhile scouting groups continued their advance locating Russian forces and ordering up supporting attacks on what they found.
This was made easier by the Ukrainians bringing up artillery with them as they moved into the villages and gained strategic points of control.
Russian forces attempted to use helicopters to deal with the main assault but they were thrown in the deep end without any real appreciation for their situation - typical of the chaotic command situation - and were destroyed. One Mi-28 became the first confirmed victim of an attack drone taking out a combat helicopter.
At this point the attacks on Morozovsk air field and others start to make more sense. Clearly these were part of the prerequisites for the attack to begin.
Ukraine seems to have taken local air dominance through using mobile anti-air systems - but the real problem for the Russians is they don’t know where to hit because they don’t really know exactly where the Ukrainians are.
Now we know of the attack into Belgorod this is starting to make more sense. That will be tougher but with Russian forces desperate to deploy to hold back Kursk operations being held down near Belgorod and its approaches is going to complicate things hugely.
The Ukrainians are I think, hoping to cause a cascade event. By creating such a fast moving disaster for the Russians in a place they can’t even start to defend from, they aim to halt the advances in the eastern front direction, and, through shock and mobility try and collapse the northern sector of the Russian front, starting with making the Kharkiv front untenable - those troops are best positioned to act against the incursion. But if they retreat we know the Ukrainians have the means to assist them out of the area at speed and harass them as they go. Once those troops pull back and around, the Ukrainians can push hard, from Belgorod, south towards the Russian forces in the northern front sector.
By this time the Russians will have to start to make major re-deployments to stave off a collapse, let alone contain the attack as it widens. Never mind even begin trying to take back the lost land.
If this is the plan, if this can be pulled off, it’s going to a front-line altering operation of shocking proportions.
The Russians have gotten so used to dealing only with the operating area of the main front that they have embedded themselves in it. Everything is set up to service the front that’s operated for the two years past.
This, if it can pan out as I have described is a stunning strategic move, daring in the extreme, its using the finest ideals in military theory - use the enemy’s strength against him.
Russian logistics and supply lines are good once they’re established - Russia always operated at a distance so it’s always been geared up to function that way in the field once it knows what it’s doing. But those lines and the front they supply are rigid - moving it and the reduced mobility of Russian forces is clear, is simply not something you can do overnight.
Let’s not pretend this isn’t high risk. If it goes wrong Ukraine is in the shit. And that’s why I think it might succeed. They know the stakes are sky high.
They have struck in a way and in a place that appeared as a raid, but it now looks like part two is unfolding and this is a genuine offensive - and it could change the war.
Was I skeptical, absolutely. Could I be wrong about what I said then and now - totally and I am fine with that. You can only go with the information you have, and past behaviours. The more we get the bigger this seems to be.
If the scope of this is as big as I think it could be Russia is looking at a strategic defeat in depth. The very least they should expect is to accept they cannot win and start talking. And I suspect that’s what this is really aimed at. Ultimately if Ukraine adds to this by crossing into Kherson and rattling that end of the front too, what are the Russians to do?
I also now appreciate why the Ukrainians were so quick to slap down Russian special forces recon missions. They were on those elite soldiers in such short order they barely moved a muscle. They had plenty of reason to be. They had a lot to hide.
If I’m right we have to seem anything this revolutionary since September 2022 when the Russians were forced backwards out of the northern sector of the front as it was then. Ukraine looks to be trying to repeat that scenario on a huge scale. Mobility and surprise won that and it’s the key to this.
It could all end in tears. And it could all end in a stunning strategic reversal the Russians - and nobody else either, saw coming.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine !
IS THIS THE MOST DARING STRATEGIC GAMBLE SO FAR?
We now have a better understanding of this operation and how it unfolded. Planning appear to have been meticulously worked out and a strategy to move forward in an ordered progress is clearly there. What remains a mystery is the purpose of the entire operation. Perhaps that’s the ultimate in strategic genius - but it could just as easily be a fail - only time will tell. We all want the best outcome.
The initial planning was the destruction of the main border crossing which was held by around 300 troops - most surrendered in a panic after being battered by infantry, even abandoning a T-62 in the process. It’s this that we first saw video of.
Meanwhile elite scouting forces were sent rapidly forward in small groups of Strikers to get as far forward as possible and work out what the Russians had to resist with. It was these groups, popping up all over different places well into the Kursk oblast, that caused so much panic behind Russian lines in the first days.
Once the border crossing was secure and the resistance levels determined as non existent in the most part, a secondary force was sent in to capture and hold the border villages flanking the main force which moved quickly towards the town of Sudzha. Within hours they had taken the town as far as the river and seized all the primary objectives of the border villages.
Meanwhile scouting groups continued their advance locating Russian forces and ordering up supporting attacks on what they found.
This was made easier by the Ukrainians bringing up artillery with them as they moved into the villages and gained strategic points of control.
Russian forces attempted to use helicopters to deal with the main assault but they were thrown in the deep end without any real appreciation for their situation - typical of the chaotic command situation - and were destroyed. One Mi-28 became the first confirmed victim of an attack drone taking out a combat helicopter.
At this point the attacks on Morozovsk air field and others start to make more sense. Clearly these were part of the prerequisites for the attack to begin.
Ukraine seems to have taken local air dominance through using mobile anti-air systems - but the real problem for the Russians is they don’t know where to hit because they don’t really know exactly where the Ukrainians are.
Now we know of the attack into Belgorod this is starting to make more sense. That will be tougher but with Russian forces desperate to deploy to hold back Kursk operations being held down near Belgorod and its approaches is going to complicate things hugely.
The Ukrainians are I think, hoping to cause a cascade event. By creating such a fast moving disaster for the Russians in a place they can’t even start to defend from, they aim to halt the advances in the eastern front direction, and, through shock and mobility try and collapse the northern sector of the Russian front, starting with making the Kharkiv front untenable - those troops are best positioned to act against the incursion. But if they retreat we know the Ukrainians have the means to assist them out of the area at speed and harass them as they go. Once those troops pull back and around, the Ukrainians can push hard, from Belgorod, south towards the Russian forces in the northern front sector.
By this time the Russians will have to start to make major re-deployments to stave off a collapse, let alone contain the attack as it widens. Never mind even begin trying to take back the lost land.
If this is the plan, if this can be pulled off, it’s going to a front-line altering operation of shocking proportions.
The Russians have gotten so used to dealing only with the operating area of the main front that they have embedded themselves in it. Everything is set up to service the front that’s operated for the two years past.
This, if it can pan out as I have described is a stunning strategic move, daring in the extreme, its using the finest ideals in military theory - use the enemy’s strength against him.
Russian logistics and supply lines are good once they’re established - Russia always operated at a distance so it’s always been geared up to function that way in the field once it knows what it’s doing. But those lines and the front they supply are rigid - moving it and the reduced mobility of Russian forces is clear, is simply not something you can do overnight.
Let’s not pretend this isn’t high risk. If it goes wrong Ukraine is in the shit. And that’s why I think it might succeed. They know the stakes are sky high.
They have struck in a way and in a place that appeared as a raid, but it now looks like part two is unfolding and this is a genuine offensive - and it could change the war.
Was I skeptical, absolutely. Could I be wrong about what I said then and now - totally and I am fine with that. You can only go with the information you have, and past behaviours. The more we get the bigger this seems to be.
If the scope of this is as big as I think it could be Russia is looking at a strategic defeat in depth. The very least they should expect is to accept they cannot win and start talking. And I suspect that’s what this is really aimed at. Ultimately if Ukraine adds to this by crossing into Kherson and rattling that end of the front too, what are the Russians to do?
I also now appreciate why the Ukrainians were so quick to slap down Russian special forces recon missions. They were on those elite soldiers in such short order they barely moved a muscle. They had plenty of reason to be. They had a lot to hide.
If I’m right we have to seem anything this revolutionary since September 2022 when the Russians were forced backwards out of the northern sector of the front as it was then. Ukraine looks to be trying to repeat that scenario on a huge scale. Mobility and surprise won that and it’s the key to this.
It could all end in tears. And it could all end in a stunning strategic reversal the Russians - and nobody else either, saw coming.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraine !
Kirkstall Blue
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30 miles inside Russia great progress they are in Govcharovka
These two grannies speak Ukrainian
These two grannies speak Ukrainian
BlueAnorak
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Rouble lost 2% of it's value today. Down to 90.3 to 1$ US
BlueAnorak
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Russian soilders looting abandoned RUSSIAN Properties in Kursk. Video taken from a captured Russuan conscript...
I guess it's what they do best...
I guess it's what they do best...