doots
Well-Known Member
At least they're in the air at last.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
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BlueAnorak
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Stuff 29/08:
Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine loses its first F-16
Ukraine has lost its first F-16. This was apparently the pilot. If it’s a day ending in Y, there is a fuel depot on fire somewhere in Russia. The raging inferno at the Proletarsk oil depot has reached the smoldering stage after burning out of control...
www.dailykos.com
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
RUSSIAN FUEL SUPPLY IN SERIOUS PERIL
The Russians may be hitting and damaging the Ukrainian electricity grid, but as time goes on Ukraine is learning how to reorganise it and decentralise it, moving it eventually to what could well be the 21st century ideal - a networked system on a grid, but one that’s far more robust and able to sustain loss of generation power through battery and regional power generation on an smaller scale, coupled to wider use of renewables such as solar and wind. It’s all very long term of course but at least they see how to manage their future needs.
Russia has much more of an immediate and long term problem combined.
The relentless and increasingly frequent attacks on refineries and refined fuels storage sites across Russia is reaching a critical point.
Let’s first separate the idea of crude oil out of this, the refineries and the storage depots are not going to hamper Russia exporting crude oil. Attacks on transshipment terminals could potentially do that but the Americans have asked that not happen - until after the election. American voters get very sensitive over petrol pump prices and attacks on terminals would spike the price of crude oil globally.
What Ukraine has done is concentrate on the vital refining capacity that produces exportable diesel, kerosene, petrol and naphtha.
Refined products like these are extremely profitable. With 44 refineries Russia was producing all of its domestic needs from its own crude oil. The rest, around 40% was being exported as high value product. Pre war most of it went to Europe and entered the global market for trading. Countries without their own refineries (much of Africa for example) or with insufficient refining capacity, such as Egypt were frequent buyers. It brought in almost as much money as crude oil exports and was a vital source of state income.
Ukrainian drone strikes have become increasingly long ranged and they were quick to target the key part of a refineries core - the cracking plant. These high towers use chemicals and heat to separate the crude into distillates - then extract them at differing points in the tower - lighter fuels like naphtha and kerosene at the top, then petroleum and diesel and heating oil at the bottom, being the heaviest.
Destroy these towers and the whole refinery has been effectively disabled. Repairs are long winded and expensive.
This led to rapid reductions in Russian refining capacity. The latest attack in Omsk - the largest refinery in Russia and an astonishing 1,500km from Ukraine, lost its primary cracking plant. Knocking out, according to oil industry experts, some 41% of the plants refining capacity or 4 million tons a year.
As it is Russia has banned the export of all refined products since this time last year - and that ban has been extended pretty much indefinitely. It’s struggling to supply diesel for domestic use especially in the vital harvest season now in mid flow. It’s already been importing refined product from Kazakhstan and Belarus, the later from Russian crude it buys and exports back. Kazakhstan is a net oil exporter so doesn’t have to buy Russian crude. Neither are happy about doing it - they’re having to accept payment in Rubles they could do without, but neither is in a position to say no.
Ukrainian strikes moved from refineries- they had effectively damaged as much as they could and even retargeted those that were repaired, to fuel storage tanks. These are usually used for refined petroleum and diesel - usually as distribution points for tankers for retail or end user distribution.
The tanks closer to the front lines - Rostov, Kursk, Pleyatorsk and so on that we’ve seen taking days to burn through fuel stored in them, were mostly used for diesel - and for the military on the frontlines. Clearly the need to idiot Russian operations on the front have become a priority.
So while these attacks are effective - and very long term problems to solve - it’s going to take a lot more to cripple the supply lines.
(1/2)
(2/2)
Russian military operations have long established capabilities- one of the few things they have remained good at - is pipeline fuel distribution to the front lines - having specific regiments capable of installing and extending them. Much the same as they do with railroads.
The damage is more significant long term though. Russia is in no position to replace these huge storage facilities - as one worker there said about Pleyatorsk, it took a week to destroy it but 15 years to build it.
The cost to Russia is being seen in internal price rises - inflation is fuelled by pump prices and they are rising, up 9.3% - producer prices are up 13%, food inflation is also some 35% and fuel prices affect agricultural prices through diesel and the cost of fertiliser.
All of it affects the cost of military production and in an economy so completely dependent on the oil and refining industries, Russia cannot escape the consequences of what its war is doing to its own people and its economy. The vice is tighter and tighter, the pressure in the economy is constantly increasing and fuelling higher inflation. This is not by any means a normal economic condition. Its long term prospects are dismal. And what worries those who see where this is going in Russia - business managers and owners - they know when the war ends they’ll be faced with a collapse in economic activity and production like nothing ever experienced before. It’s reached a point where the end of the war is the end of Russia’s economy- you could even argue it would be better just to carry on fighting, but that would only stave off the inevitable for a short time.
Ukraine must keep striking Russian oil infrastructure- it’s the best and surest way of doing serious and long lasting damage to Russia’s war economy.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
RUSSIAN FUEL SUPPLY IN SERIOUS PERIL
The Russians may be hitting and damaging the Ukrainian electricity grid, but as time goes on Ukraine is learning how to reorganise it and decentralise it, moving it eventually to what could well be the 21st century ideal - a networked system on a grid, but one that’s far more robust and able to sustain loss of generation power through battery and regional power generation on an smaller scale, coupled to wider use of renewables such as solar and wind. It’s all very long term of course but at least they see how to manage their future needs.
Russia has much more of an immediate and long term problem combined.
The relentless and increasingly frequent attacks on refineries and refined fuels storage sites across Russia is reaching a critical point.
Let’s first separate the idea of crude oil out of this, the refineries and the storage depots are not going to hamper Russia exporting crude oil. Attacks on transshipment terminals could potentially do that but the Americans have asked that not happen - until after the election. American voters get very sensitive over petrol pump prices and attacks on terminals would spike the price of crude oil globally.
What Ukraine has done is concentrate on the vital refining capacity that produces exportable diesel, kerosene, petrol and naphtha.
Refined products like these are extremely profitable. With 44 refineries Russia was producing all of its domestic needs from its own crude oil. The rest, around 40% was being exported as high value product. Pre war most of it went to Europe and entered the global market for trading. Countries without their own refineries (much of Africa for example) or with insufficient refining capacity, such as Egypt were frequent buyers. It brought in almost as much money as crude oil exports and was a vital source of state income.
Ukrainian drone strikes have become increasingly long ranged and they were quick to target the key part of a refineries core - the cracking plant. These high towers use chemicals and heat to separate the crude into distillates - then extract them at differing points in the tower - lighter fuels like naphtha and kerosene at the top, then petroleum and diesel and heating oil at the bottom, being the heaviest.
Destroy these towers and the whole refinery has been effectively disabled. Repairs are long winded and expensive.
This led to rapid reductions in Russian refining capacity. The latest attack in Omsk - the largest refinery in Russia and an astonishing 1,500km from Ukraine, lost its primary cracking plant. Knocking out, according to oil industry experts, some 41% of the plants refining capacity or 4 million tons a year.
As it is Russia has banned the export of all refined products since this time last year - and that ban has been extended pretty much indefinitely. It’s struggling to supply diesel for domestic use especially in the vital harvest season now in mid flow. It’s already been importing refined product from Kazakhstan and Belarus, the later from Russian crude it buys and exports back. Kazakhstan is a net oil exporter so doesn’t have to buy Russian crude. Neither are happy about doing it - they’re having to accept payment in Rubles they could do without, but neither is in a position to say no.
Ukrainian strikes moved from refineries- they had effectively damaged as much as they could and even retargeted those that were repaired, to fuel storage tanks. These are usually used for refined petroleum and diesel - usually as distribution points for tankers for retail or end user distribution.
The tanks closer to the front lines - Rostov, Kursk, Pleyatorsk and so on that we’ve seen taking days to burn through fuel stored in them, were mostly used for diesel - and for the military on the frontlines. Clearly the need to idiot Russian operations on the front have become a priority.
So while these attacks are effective - and very long term problems to solve - it’s going to take a lot more to cripple the supply lines.
(1/2)
(2/2)
Russian military operations have long established capabilities- one of the few things they have remained good at - is pipeline fuel distribution to the front lines - having specific regiments capable of installing and extending them. Much the same as they do with railroads.
The damage is more significant long term though. Russia is in no position to replace these huge storage facilities - as one worker there said about Pleyatorsk, it took a week to destroy it but 15 years to build it.
The cost to Russia is being seen in internal price rises - inflation is fuelled by pump prices and they are rising, up 9.3% - producer prices are up 13%, food inflation is also some 35% and fuel prices affect agricultural prices through diesel and the cost of fertiliser.
All of it affects the cost of military production and in an economy so completely dependent on the oil and refining industries, Russia cannot escape the consequences of what its war is doing to its own people and its economy. The vice is tighter and tighter, the pressure in the economy is constantly increasing and fuelling higher inflation. This is not by any means a normal economic condition. Its long term prospects are dismal. And what worries those who see where this is going in Russia - business managers and owners - they know when the war ends they’ll be faced with a collapse in economic activity and production like nothing ever experienced before. It’s reached a point where the end of the war is the end of Russia’s economy- you could even argue it would be better just to carry on fighting, but that would only stave off the inevitable for a short time.
Ukraine must keep striking Russian oil infrastructure- it’s the best and surest way of doing serious and long lasting damage to Russia’s war economy.
‘The Analyst’ MilStratOnX
Slava Ukraini !
grunge
Well-Known Member
Ukraine F-16 destroyed during Russian attack, BBC told
The incident happened just weeks after Kyiv took delivery of the supersonic aircraft.
www.bbc.co.uk
Plane went down after shooting down 3 cruise missiles and a drone on Monday. Doesn’t say how the plane went down but does say not shot down.
Summat brewing in the East,i have no idea what,honestly no idea.
The info is more mute than Kursk info.
I was told,"Cossacks do not worry about the Eastern direction,it is under our circustances".
Hopefully,he is right.
Heroyam Slava
100% not shot down.Ukraine F-16 destroyed during Russian attack, BBC told
The incident happened just weeks after Kyiv took delivery of the supersonic aircraft.www.bbc.co.uk
Plane went down after shooting down 3 cruise missiles and a drone on Monday. Doesn’t say how the plane went down but does say not shot down.
There was a lot of artillery fire in the area,but nothing to bring it down.
Slava Ukraini.
cleavers
Moderator
We're not in the EU, so not our business (sadly).
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
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- 31 Oct 2010
- Messages
- 27,985
I bloody hope so.
It's bloody crap what's happening.
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
Gets you in the feels this.
BlueAnorak
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 31 Oct 2010
- Messages
- 27,985
I'm glad folks are catching on.
The Ukrainians knocked out the other cracking plant at Omsk on 25th April via sabotage.
Not easy to replace.