Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mr Kobayashi]

What you doing in this thread? I thought you avoid it due to the Ukrainian fanboys/cheerleaders etc.
Go back to your own threads cheerleading of muslim terrorist please.

What a weird response. I was asking a question because someone appeared to make a non factual statement.

Are we allowed to correct people or is the thread where truth goes to die.

From my interactions with the poster in the past I don't attribute any malice or deliberate intent to mislead but it wasn't accurate to say that there are higher casualties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict than Gaza.

As for cheerleader, try this on for size. Most of the reliable and knowledgeable western sources don't predict a Ukraine victory. Some actually predicted Ukraine could lose the war this year, although my guess is they did this push for more weapons to get sent over.

Ukraine is holding out for a coup d'état, but will it be another Prigozhin type bottling it after biting off more than he can chew. Without an internal event, Russia can afford to send more men into the meat grunder. Ukraine won't win that war of attrition.

Ukraine will eventually have to give up some territory and the war will end.

Unless Ukraine is able to prove that they can go on the offensive, without losing other positions (see taking Kursk whilst losing positions in Eastern Ukraine) then the tide of the war won't change.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Ukraine will eventually have to give up some territory and the war will end.

I think the problem with this is that all previous evidence suggests the opposite.

Russia has previously signed treaties with ukraine then ignored them.

Russia has previously invaded parts of Ukraine then done the same again.

There's no evidence that ukraine can actually gain peace in the way you suggest.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

I think the problem with this is that all previous evidence suggests the opposite.

Russia has previously signed treaties with ukraine then ignored them.

Russia has previously invaded parts of Ukraine then done the same again.

There's no evidence that ukraine can actually gain peace in the way you suggest.

But so far they've consistently proved that they can't gain peace through defeating Russia and reclaiming territory either.

Kursk was a bold and successful raid but it's zero sum after the losses in the East at the same time.

They can exit the conflict and get rid of some of the troublesome Russian native speaking traitors in the East though.

What would be the logic for Russia in marching in and capturing territory that they can't hold and can't win the hearts and minds of the local population. Western Ukraine is in the orbit of Western Europe and won't be going back.

Russia isn't likely to present a theat as an invading force again. The Kharkiv and Kyiv blitzkreigs were disastrous.

What's the point of Ukraine staying in a conflict that they can't win? The one thing they are clinging on to is, hoping for the collapse of the Putin regime by coup etc.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But so far they've consistently proved that they can't gain peace through defeating Russia and reclaiming territory either.

Kursk was a bold and successful raid but it's zero sum after the losses in the East at the same time.

They can exit the conflict and get rid of some of the troublesome Russian native speaking traitors in the East though.

What would be the logic for Russia in marching in and capturing territory that they can't hold and can't win the hearts and minds of the local population. Western Ukraine is in the orbit of Western Europe and won't be going back.

Russia isn't likely to present a theat as an invading force again. The Kharkiv and Kyiv blitzkreigs were disastrous.

What's the point of Ukraine staying in a conflict that they can't win, the one thing they are clinging on to is, hoping for the collapse of the Putin regime by coup etc?

I'm not saying there are easy answers.

But I think we should support ukraine if they want to fight in these circumstances. And the more support we give them, the faster the war will end.

The Russian army has been far weaker than anyone supposed at the start; it may be far weaker than you suppose now.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

I'm not saying there are easy answers.

But I think we should support ukraine if they want to fight in these circumstances. And the more support we give them, the faster the war will end.

The tide is turning. Support for negotiations is increasing. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is increasing. Are Ukrainians who left their country going home or are they going to use it as opportunity to improve their living standards in the West?

Ukraine will eventually have to give up. Even if it is only a pause from conflict.

The Russian army has been far weaker than anyone supposed at the start; it may be far weaker than you suppose now.

The Russian army doesn't have to be strong. They can continue to throw barely trained convicts into the meat grinder and rinse and repeat.

That's barely an army. But their armed forces are strong enough to hold their positions and advance.

They aren't strong enough to pose a threat to Nato but they aren't weak enough for Ukraine to defeat them.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The tide is turning. Support for negotiations is increasing. The average age of Ukrainian soldiers is increasing. Are Ukrainians who left their country going home or are they going to use it as opportunity to improve their living standards in the West?

Ukraine will eventually have to give up. Even if it is only a pause from conflict.



The Russian army doesn't have to be strong. They can continue to throw barely trained convicts into the meat grinder and rinse and repeat.

That's barely an army. But their armed forces are strong enough to hold their positions and advance.

They aren't strong enough to pose a threat to Nato but they aren't weak enough for Ukraine to defeat them.

Your confidence in your ability to predict this far outstrips mine.

I'll note that

(1) the Ukrainian population continues to support the war as far as can be judged and
(2) Far better qualified analysts than you have previously misjudged Russian strength.

Russia has committed the most appalling crimes, and we should not force Ukrainians into their embrace against their will, IMO. And I don't believe peace would come from such a settlement regardless.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Your confidence in your ability to predict this far outstrips mine.

I'll note that

(1) the Ukrainian population continues to support the war as far as can be judged and
(2) Far better qualified analysts than you have previously misjudged Russian strength.

Russia has committed the most appalling crimes, and we should not force Ukrainians into their embrace against their will, IMO. And I don't believe peace would come from such a settlement regardless.

You say thar as if I am placing a bold bet. It's not. It's the logical reading of the facts on the ground. The armed forces of Ukraine has had the opportunity to prove their capabilities as an effective offensive fighting force and has not shown success. Save for the negligible incursion in Kursk.

The war hasn't moved away from attrition and they cannot win such a war, not without the Coup or mutiny in Russia.

You are talking about morals and idealogy. What use is that for winning an almost unwinnable war?

I actually hold a more extreme political view in favour of Ukraine than yourself, I'd love Ukraine to not just win, but drag Russia into the European sphere of influence. That won't and cannot happen in the real world.

Russia has the resources for a long war.

Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.

carnegieendowment.org

Has Russia’s military improved enough to take on NATO?

Al Jazeera’s defence editor on why Russia’s army is unprepared for a conflict with NATO, a scenario Putin is warning of.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia’s army

Russia’s ground forces have seen rapid expansion as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Quality has not kept pace as larger numbers have not offset poor training and huge equipment shortages. For Russia, the only path to a military victory is through attrition and the use of its larger armed forces to ground down the smaller Ukrainian army.

Moscow has slowly absorbed the costly lessons from the beginning of the war. Poor-quality troops are better suited for defence and the adroit use of extensive defensive lines in southern Ukraine’s flat, open countryside helped blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023. Russia has learnt that only better-quality soldiers can be used for offensive action.

As I said, support for negotiations is increasing.

44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds

At the same time, a majority of respondents were also opposed to the current ceasefire conditions laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would entail the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions that are partially occupied by Russia.

kyivindependent.com

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You say thar as if I am placing a bold bet. It's not. It's the logical reading of the facts on the ground. The armed forces of Ukraine has had the opportunity to prove their capabilities as an effective offensive fighting force and has not shown success. Save for the negligible incursion in Kursk.

The war hasn't moved away from attrition and they cannot win such a war, not without the Coup or mutiny in Russia.

You are talking about morals and idealogy. What use is that for winning an almost unwinnable war?

I actually hold a more extreme political view in favour of Ukraine than yourself, I'd love Ukraine to not just win, but drag Russia into the European sphere of influence. That won't and cannot happen in the real world.

Russia has the resources for a long war.

Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.

carnegieendowment.org

Has Russia’s military improved enough to take on NATO?

Al Jazeera’s defence editor on why Russia’s army is unprepared for a conflict with NATO, a scenario Putin is warning of.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia’s army

Russia’s ground forces have seen rapid expansion as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Quality has not kept pace as larger numbers have not offset poor training and huge equipment shortages. For Russia, the only path to a military victory is through attrition and the use of its larger armed forces to ground down the smaller Ukrainian army.

Moscow has slowly absorbed the costly lessons from the beginning of the war. Poor-quality troops are better suited for defence and the adroit use of extensive defensive lines in southern Ukraine’s flat, open countryside helped blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023. Russia has learnt that only better-quality soldiers can be used for offensive action.

As I said, support for negotiations is increasing.

44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds

At the same time, a majority of respondents were also opposed to the current ceasefire conditions laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would entail the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions that are partially occupied by Russia.

kyivindependent.com

Again, I admire your confidence in your ability to judge the situation. I remain entirely uncertain of the military future.

Your mind reading of my own opinions is pretty impressive too.

I think the decisions for this should be up to Ukraine, and we should sort them as far as possible.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Been more concerned with eating popcorn watching the fall out from City's legal victory.
Appologies - catch up.

Last night's stuff (07/10):

Russian stuff blowing up: Ukraine strikes Russian oil depot in Crimea

Ukraine hit a Russian oil depot in Crimea. And it’s still burning. Bavovna More F-16s. Russia is throwing fresh-faced, barely trained recruits into the battle at Toretsk and Pokrovsk. Touring Sudzha in Ukrainian-occupied Kursk. Russia hasn’t shelled...

www.dailykos.com

 

[BlueAnorak]

Day 958 Review:

Ukraine Invasion Day 958: 4th RU missile strike series against Kyiv since October 1

Russian force conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on October 6 to 7 and on the morning of October 7. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched more than 80 drones and missiles, including...

www.dailykos.com