Russian invasion of Ukraine

roubaixtuesday said:
I think your confidence in your own analysis of the position on the ground is far too high, and likewise your position on my opinions.

[Largely off topic ramble follows]

I had the privilege to travel very widely this year, including through Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia, France, Germany and many other countries.

There have been terrible conflicts and apparently intractable animosity between many of these countries.

In some, the wounds remain raw, and conflict perhaps not far below the surface.

In others, despite the most appalling history, there is peace, achieved not by accident but by a deliberate and considered project to prevent war ever being an option.

If this can be achieved despite the crimes of the past, there is no reason it cannot happen in future with Russia.

One thing which was constant in all the countries we visited was the helpfulness and warm welcome from the people. People everywhere are the same, including Russians (an unpopular opinion on this thread!)

What I don't believe is that capitulation to fascism brings peace. Of course, I could be wrong.

Here endeth the sermon ramble.
Click to expand...

I don't need to conduct primary analysis. At no stage did I purport to be a military analyst or armchair general.

There are plenty of sources out there that inform this view. The prevailing view among reputable western commentators is that Ukraine is holding on at best. Victory might be possible next year, if you want some optimism. But some said that last year too.

There hasn't been anything to change the situation significantly in favour of Ukraine. This is just basic reasoning of what the facts mean.

The Kursk operation was an opportunity to change that narrative, but I've already outlined why I don't think it does.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
I do genuinely believe that....i dont however "have to".....i just do.
Ukraine will not give up land,not a chance..IMO.
I'm not arguing,just my opinion mate.

Slava Ukraini.
Click to expand...

You're a true patriot. That's why I wouldn't seek to temper your optimism.

You may be right. But there may be a time when Ukraine does not have a choice. It may be necessary to avoid defeat or Military aid may tail off.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
I know you genuinely believe that. You have to. But the facts tell a different story.

Why would they immediately invade again?

He gets to walk back and save face and claim victory. His political legacy is assured.

Further conflict risks a proper war with Nato which Russia is the favourite to lose.

He's 72 years old and in declining health, if you had another longer pause in the conflict. He'd probably be dead or retired before the end of it.
Click to expand...
Maybe because Putin has never stuck to a treaty he has signed since becoming Fuhrer.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Maybe because Putin has never stuck to a treaty he has signed since becoming Fuhrer.
Click to expand...

The Russian-Ukrainian friendship treaty was signed by Yeltsin. He didn't personally sign that agreement.

Trump has broken deals signed by predecessors (NAFTA, Iran Nuclear deal) but if he were to become president again and a deal needed to be made then the opposite party would make a deal.

No one is pretending that Putin can be trusted to stand by his word. But international relations are more than just goodwill agreements.

Is Ukraine's security and economy enhanced by a never ending war? Or does it gain more by a temporary reprieve, e.g restocking it's armoury and modernising it's armed forces in "peace time" rather than sending middle aged men to the battlefield of a conflict they look increasingly likely to lose.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
The Russian-Ukrainian friendship treaty was signed by Yeltsin. He didn't personally sign that agreement.

Trump has broken deals signed by predecessors (NAFTA, Iran Nuclear deal) but if he were to become president again and a deal needed to be made then the opposite party would make a deal.

No one is pretending that Putin can be trusted to stand by his word. But international relations are more than just goodwill agreements.

Is Ukraine's security and economy enhanced by a never ending war? Or does it gain more by a temporary reprieve, e.g restocking it's armoury and modernising it's armed forces in "peace time" rather than sending middle aged men to the battlefield of a conflict they look increasingly likely to lose.
Click to expand...
That's rather up to Ukrainians - not you.
I meant to say Putin has never stuck to a treaty signed during his life time full stop.
 
BlueAnorak said:
That's rather up to Ukrainians - not you.
I meant to say Putin has never stuck to a treaty signed during his life time full stop.
Click to expand...

I've not said it was. I stand by my prediction though. Ukraine will not wrestle victory from the jaws of defeat. It's either a never ending stalemate or peace.

Just to reiterate that is what I think will happen, not what I want to happen.

It's also not solely Ukraine's choice.

Europeans and North Americans may decide they no longer want their governments to support a never ending war in which Ukraine doesn't have the tools to win, with their tax dollars/pounds or euros and increased living costs. At that point there isn't a choice.
 
Mr Kobayashi said:
But so far they've consistently proved that they can't gain peace through defeating Russia and reclaiming territory either.

Kursk was a bold and successful raid but it's zero sum after the losses in the East at the same time.

They can exit the conflict and get rid of some of the troublesome Russian native speaking traitors in the East though.

What would be the logic for Russia in marching in and capturing territory that they can't hold and can't win the hearts and minds of the local population. Western Ukraine is in the orbit of Western Europe and won't be going back.

Russia isn't likely to present a theat as an invading force again. The Kharkiv and Kyiv blitzkreigs were disastrous.

What's the point of Ukraine staying in a conflict that they can't win? The one thing they are clinging on to is, hoping for the collapse of the Putin regime by coup etc.
Click to expand...
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

The first bolded bit is just shite, in many of the Cities in the occupied (russian speaking) areas have major partisan attacks on the russian infrastructure.

The seconded bolded bit is also shite, they're clearly not winning those people over, just opressing them, it's what russia does.

The third bolded bit - it's their land why should they concede it, especially when the people don't want to be "russian".

Even in Kursk (russia) there's evidence some of the local would prefer to be part of Ukraine.

There's evidence of all of this if you bother to look/read articles.
 
cleavers said:
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

The first bolded bit is just shite, in many of the Cities in the occupied (russian speaking) areas have major partisan attacks on the russian infrastructure.

The seconded bolded bit is also shite, they're clearly not winning those people over, just opressing them, it's what russia does.

The third bolded bit - it's their land why should they concede it, especially when the people don't want to be "russian".

Even in Kursk (russia) there's evidence some of the local would prefer to be part of Ukraine.

There's evidence of all of this if you bother to look/read articles.
Click to expand...

So you took it completely literally?

Russia is despotic state. It doesn't need to actually win hearts and minds.But it has limited resources to opress and coerce people to bend the knee.

It would be unable to achieve the same level of subservience or begrudgingly obedience in Western Ukraine as it has in the East.

And yet Partisans have not swung the direction of the war. They would be a greater problem in the West of Ukraine.

Kursk is populated by people who came from Ukraine or whose ancestors came from Ukraine. Big surprise. Most of Russia would probably take the same option to join Ukraine if it came with greater freedoms and prospect of higher living standards.

Hasn't it been signalled that Ukraine plans to trade the Kursk and any other captured Russian territory for Ukrainian territory?

You are talking morals, politics and idealogy. How does that help Ukraine take the lost land back?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.