Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mr Kobayashi]

Again, I admire your confidence in your ability to judge the situation. I remain entirely uncertain of the military future.

Your mind reading of my own opinions is pretty impressive too.

I think the decisions for this should be up to Ukraine, and we should sort them as far as possible.

Isn't it interesting that you have to make personal and snide remarks. And I've not made any in your direction?

My prediction is that City will win the Premier league. That's not a bold prediction. The past seven seasons makes us favourites and all the evidence points towards us getting better over the course of the season.

The majority of the available evidence point towards a Russian hold or victory. Either of those are a loss for Ukraine.

What's going to change the facts on the ground? Ukraine haven't been able to sufficiently modernise and change their army into one capable of one going on the offensive.

The average age of soldiers is increasing not decreasing and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men fled conscription.

I've also not actually said we should withdraw support. But ultimately it's unlikely to matter. It will prolong the war. But at this stage, it won't likely change the direction.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Videi Review 1 - Critical Russian Military Radars knocked out.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Video Review 2:

 

[BlueAnorak]

You say thar as if I am placing a bold bet. It's not. It's the logical reading of the facts on the ground. The armed forces of Ukraine has had the opportunity to prove their capabilities as an effective offensive fighting force and has not shown success. Save for the negligible incursion in Kursk.

The war hasn't moved away from attrition and they cannot win such a war, not without the Coup or mutiny in Russia.

You are talking about morals and idealogy. What use is that for winning an almost unwinnable war?

I actually hold a more extreme political view in favour of Ukraine than yourself, I'd love Ukraine to not just win, but drag Russia into the European sphere of influence. That won't and cannot happen in the real world.

Russia has the resources for a long war.

Russia Has the Resources for a Long War in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin has reason to be confident that Russia can maintain current military spending levels for a relatively long time. This is bad news for Ukraine, its Western partners and neighbors, and overall global security.

carnegieendowment.org

Has Russia’s military improved enough to take on NATO?

Al Jazeera’s defence editor on why Russia’s army is unprepared for a conflict with NATO, a scenario Putin is warning of.

www.aljazeera.com

Russia’s army

Russia’s ground forces have seen rapid expansion as a result of the war in Ukraine.

Quality has not kept pace as larger numbers have not offset poor training and huge equipment shortages. For Russia, the only path to a military victory is through attrition and the use of its es to ground down the smaller Ukrainian army.

Moscow has slowly absorbed the costly lessons from the beginning of the war. Poor-quality troops are better suited for defence and the adroit use of extensive defensive lines in southern Ukraine’s flat, open countryside helped blunt Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023. Russia has learnt that only better-quality soldiers can be used for offensive action.

As I said, support for negotiations is increasing.

44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds

At the same time, a majority of respondents were also opposed to the current ceasefire conditions laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would entail the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions that are partially occupied by Russia.

kyivindependent.com

Russia's only hope of victory is indeed attrition but it is not in any way guaranteed.
Also the percentage of Ukrainians wishing to negotiate may have gone up but that doesn't mean they are prepared to give in to Russian demands. A point that many passive Russian supporters like yourself ignore entirely.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Ukraine will eventually have to give up some territory and the war will end.

Ukraine will come out of this war with more territory than when it started.
Their own territory,i might add.
Do you honestly think if they give up land,Putin will stop at that?
Genuine question.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Russia's only hope of victory is indeed attrition but it is not in anyway guaranteed.
Also the percentage of Ukrainians wishing to negotiate may have gone up but that doesn't mean they are prepared to give in to Russian demands. A point that many Russian supporters like yourself ignore entirely.

So you didn't bother to read then?

I don't ignore it. But ultimately it doesn't matter. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian fighting age men have fled the country and there isn't an increasing appetite to join up. Ukraine won't sacrifice the men for territory on the battlefield and it's more likely than not that the Ukrainian population will come to the same understanding. The East is lost.

I'm a Euro-fundamentalist. Not some Tanky or Putin admirer you plonker. I'd love Ukraine to defeat Russia and Russian to become within the orbit of the European Union before political reform and actual membership. And eventually the vast resources it holds directed towards wider European interests.

But reality trumps idealogy. I don't want Russia to win. But that doesn't make any difference.

@roubaixtuesday I don't have to be a mind-reader, it wasn't likely you hold this view. It's an extreme view that has almost no support. It wasn't psychic powers just probability.

 

[r.soleofsalford]

What a weird response. I was asking a question because someone appeared to make a non factual statement.

Are we allowed to correct people or is the thread where truth goes to die.

From my interactions with the poster in the past I don't attribute any malice or deliberate intent to mislead but it wasn't accurate to say that there are higher casualties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict than Gaza.

As for cheerleader, try this on for size. Most of the reliable and knowledgeable western sources don't predict a Ukraine victory. Some actually predicted Ukraine could lose the war this year, although my guess is they did this push for more weapons to get sent over.

Ukraine is holding out for a coup d'état, but will it be another Prigozhin type bottling it after biting off more than he can chew. Without an internal event, Russia can afford to send more men into the meat grunder. Ukraine won't win that war of attrition.

Ukraine will eventually have to give up some territory and the war will end.

Unless Ukraine is able to prove that they can go on the offensive, without losing other positions (see taking Kursk whilst losing positions in Eastern Ukraine) then the tide of the war won't change.

No chance

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Ukraine will come out of this war with more territory than when it started.
Their own territory,i might add.
Do you honestly think if they give up land,Putin will stop at that?
Genuine question.

Slava Ukraini.

I know you genuinely believe that. You have to. But the facts tell a different story.

Why would they immediately invade again?

He gets to walk back and save face and claim victory. His political legacy is assured.

Further conflict risks a proper war with Nato which Russia is the favourite to lose.

He's 72 years old and in declining health, if you had another longer pause in the conflict. He'd probably be dead or retired before the end of it.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

I know you genuinely believe that. You have to. But the facts tell a different story.

Why would they immediately invade again?

He gets to walk back and save face and claim victory. His political legacy is assured.

Further conflict risks a proper war with Nato which Russia is the favourite to lose.

He's 72 years old and in declining health, if you had another longer pause in the conflict. He'd probably be dead or retired before the end of it.

I do genuinely believe that....i dont however "have to".....i just do.
Ukraine will not give up land,not a chance..IMO.
I'm not arguing,just my opinion mate.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

@roubaixtuesday I don't have to be a mind-reader, it wasn't likely you hold this view. It's an extreme view that has almost no support. It wasn't psychic powers just probability.

I think your confidence in your own analysis of the position on the ground is far too high, and likewise your position on my opinions.

[Largely off topic ramble follows]

I had the privilege to travel very widely this year, including through Albania, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia, France, Germany and many other countries.

There have been terrible conflicts and apparently intractable animosity between many of these countries.

In some, the wounds remain raw, and conflict perhaps not far below the surface.

In others, despite the most appalling history, there is peace, achieved not by accident but by a deliberate and considered project to prevent war ever being an option.

If this can be achieved despite the crimes of the past, there is no reason it cannot happen in future with Russia.

One thing which was constant in all the countries we visited was the helpfulness and warm welcome from the people. People everywhere are the same, including Russians (an unpopular opinion on this thread!)

What I don't believe is that capitulation to fascism brings peace. Of course, I could be wrong.

Here endeth the sermon ramble.