Russian invasion of Ukraine

BlueAnorak said:
Trump can't do it without agreement in the House and Senate- and that won't happen.
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Huh? Republicans own - or will shorty own - both houses - and even though some sensible Republicans remain, they're under enormous pressure whenever they step out of line with Trump. If not now, then in 2-years time.

Against any Republican resistance, Trump will be able to exert enormous pressure - so they'll cave or be voted out next term (Senators serve 6 years, and so a reasonable, recently elected Republican Senator might stand up against Trump on the issue of NATO withdrawal - it's almost certain that his constituency will be opposed... frankly I see almost no resistance among Republicans for withdrawal from NATO - at least publicly - even though they may be opposed if spoken to privately. It's an issue where you must either bite your tongue and swallow hard - or go with your principals and likely lose reelection in most cases).
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Huh? Republicans own - or will shorty own - both houses - and even though some sensible Republicans remain, they're under enormous pressure whenever they step out of line with Trump. If not now, then in 2-years time.

Against any Republican resistance, Trump will be able to exert enormous pressure - so they'll cave or be voted out next term (Senators serve 6 years, and so a reasonable, recently elected Republican Senator might stand up against Trump on the issue of NATO withdrawal - it's almost certain that his constituency will be opposed... frankly I see almost no resistance among Republicans for withdrawal from NATO - at least publicly - even though they may be opposed if spoken to privately. It's an issue where you must either bite your tongue and swallow hard - or go with your principals and likely lose reelection in most cases).
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You think some old timer Republicans are going to vote to leave NATO? Think again.
Anyway as things stand the House is going to be a dead heat 217 each.
 
BlueAnorak said:
You think some old timer Republicans are going to vote to leave NATO? Think again.
Anyway as things stand the House is going to be a dead heat 217 each.
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Cheers - we're both speculating of course. So I'll make a bet.

In 3-years time (which allows enough time for Congressman who oppose Trump to be voted out and for traditional Senators up for reelection 2-years hence to lose primary challenges to MAGA candidates; and for other Republicans to learn the lesson not to cross Trump) - the USA will have withdrawn from NATO. Hell, I rather think that there's enough sentiment for, and cowardice-against-opposition to withdraw immediately, once Trump takes power.

Mark this post for future reference - I may be wrong - but I don't for the least second think so.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Cheers - we're both speculating of course. So I'll make a bet.

In 3-years time (which allows enough time for Congressman who oppose Trump to be voted out and for traditional Senators up for reelection 2-years hence to lose primary challenges to MAGA candidates; and for other Republicans to learn the lesson not to cross Trump) - the USA will have withdrawn from NATO. Hell, I rather think that there's enough sentiment for, and cowardice-against-opposition to withdraw immediately, once Trump takes power.

Mark this post for future reference - I may be wrong - but I don't for the least second think so.
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No chance the US withdraws from NATO
The ace card NATO members hold is that they buy US weapons and the US arms industry will not stand for the loss of orders and those customers
 
dickie davies said:
No chance the US withdraws from NATO
The ace card NATO members hold is that they buy US weapons and the US arms industry will not stand for the loss of orders and those customers
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There is this. currently arms sales are at $250bn a year ( based on 2023's sales ). thats a lot of pressure that will be applied. I doubt US leaving NATO will result in all of those sales dropping away but a lot will go elsewhere as the US would be shown as unreliable, especially when you look at how the US is controlling how arms are used in Ukraine.
 
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grunge said:
There is this. currently arms sales are at $250bn a year ( based on 2023's sales ). thats a lot of pressure that will be applied. I doubt US leaving NATO will result in all of those sales dropping away but a lot will go elsewhere as the US would be shown as unreliable, especially when you look at how the US is controlling how arms are used in Ukraine.
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and it's been proven by Ukraine that old kit can decimate ruSSian forces, so why the need for immediate upgrade
 
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