Russian invasion of Ukraine

Don’t disagree, but it was always going to take some existential threat for Germany to shake off ‘the long and dark shadow of its own past’.

And, to an extent, there are European countries who will have a twinge of unease at the idea of a more assertive Germany. History runs deep.

Looking past Ukraine for the moment, Putin, or a more aggressive Russia under different leadership, will fuel European cooperation in the area of defence and the EU will add a defensive competence alongside trade, with Germany and it’s manufacturing strength at the heart of it. I can also see NATO and the EU becoming more interchangeable, with membership of one becoming almost a de facto membership of the other.

Ironically, Brexit will help as the UK has ceased to be an effective brake on greater union. After Covid, the EU started raising funds in its own name for the first time. Now the EU is going to be delivering arms and aircraft for the first time. Events are pushing the EU towards greater cooperation, while at the same time the main opponent of a greater union is absent.

Brexit, Covid and Russia reshaping the European map in the space of 5 years.
Agree with all, with the possible exception of the first paragraph.

Funding NATO with 2% GDP was never about creating a German shadow. It is about a collective pool of funds from which NATO can modernize, grow, exercise, etc…

If the “2%” the US spends was only spent on US troops and equipment IN THE US, NATO would be a shell of itself.

Regardless of the semantics, your wider point is well taken and said. The EU nations are acting very well in concert based on the existential threat that has arisen on their doorstep.
 
It's not all doom and gloom, this clip outlines where we are. A face saving out that contains some elements of "victory" for Russia needs to be cobbled together and fast.

Question is by whom?


Great analysis - thanks for posting
 
Top tips for a nuc weapon detonating in your vicinity:

1. Put earplugs in your ears (or put your fingers in your ears). The noise will be very loud and it may rupture your eardrums, which, if you have experienced before, is painful.

2. Wear sun glasses. The blast will be very bright and you could end up with arc eye. Worse, you may experience loss of sight.

3. Under no circumstances, wear anything nylon as it will melt and burn your skin.

Thank you :)

Pretty sure the advice in the 80s was to paint your windows white
 

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