Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BobKowalski]

US intel has been pretty on the money throughout. UK DoD have confirmed this according to the Economist.

“in some cases, Russian troops have deliberately punched holes in their vehicles’ gas tanks, presumably to avoid combat, the official said. The Pentagon official declined to say how the military made these assessments” @NYTimes

 

[Chippy_boy]

Maybe worth thinking about medium term possible outcomes:

1. Putin puppet regime in whole of Ukraine

2. Partitioned Ukraine, puppet regime in Eastern portion

3. Russia retreats in defeat, Zelinskiy democratic govt across whole of sovereign Ukraine

Bearing in mind that we've had a form of (2) in place for many years already, (3) in its entirety seems very, very unlikely

Eloquently put.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

It's a desperate situation and, if a no flyzone is not an option, then a plan is needed urgently as to how food and medical equipment can get to those millions of innocent Ukranians once the major cities are surrounded.

No fly zones can be an act of aggression rather than a peacekeeping measure - enforcing one in Ukraine now would effectively be war with Russia.

My wife is Russian, she’s lived in the UK for 25 years and whilst definitely not a Putin supporter fits into that 70% as does her father, a very intelligent man, whom I respect a lot. It’s honestly very difficult for me to get my head around their views which are basically that Russians in East Ukraine have been persecuted, murdered etc by a fascist Ukraine over the years and that Putin has up til now done everything he can for a peaceful solution but now has been left with no other option (oh and NATO takes is share of the blame in all this too). These are of course completely opposite to my views but arguing has become impossible - it’s literally like arguing to a mirror - I say ‘you’re being lied to’ - they say ‘no, you are being lied to’.
It’s difficult for me to understand how smart people can think like this, all I’ve come up with is that this belief that the west manipulates the truth has been ingrained in them for decades that it just becomes who they are.
The whole situation is very sad

We have an island mentality here regarding all borders as hard lines. The reality elsewhere is more fluid I suppose - Ukraine for example they probably regard themselves as pretty Russian in the east and more European in the west

 

[Chippy_boy]

No fly zones can be an act of aggression rather than a peacekeeping measure - enforcing one in Ukraine now would effectively be war with Russia.

We have an island mentality here regarding all borders as hard lines. The reality elsewhere is more fluid I suppose - Ukraine for example they probably regard themselves as pretty Russian in the east and more European in the west

Of course this is true. Here's the BBC's analysis (from 2014 no less):

Ukraine's sharp divisions - BBC News

In the north east, Russian is the main language.

 

[Octavian]

We are supposed to be leading the way.

We could be for individual countries.

I don’t really care tho as long as it’s a unified response by the West.

 

[hello]

No, I didn't say that.

If any of the founding 12 articles are breached then NATO can’t exist. Article 10 states that any European country can ask to join and membership is between extra sting members (the council) and the country requesting accession. No 3rd country involvement. Or should we just unite article 5 if Putin think not attacks Estonia as well it’s only Estonia and they’ve got a fucking woman as leader so probably deserve it?

 

[robbieh]

At least in the West, we're legally allowed to hold our government to account through protests and democratic elections.

I get the point you're trying to make, but comparing today's western world to Russia is chalk and cheese. At this moment in time is any Western country literally invading another sovereign country, committing war crimes and brutally murdering women and children? We even have evidence that they're planning further invasions of a second sovereign country.

Maybe we should let them crack on and do whatever they want because 'Murica invaded 'Nam half a century ago?

We are able to get rid of our leaders granted. And while it does make a difference i.e. replacing Trump, the underlying institutions remain.
And to be fair while the West is not currently invading a sovereign country it has done much more recently than Vietnam.
All that notwithstanding Russia is very definitely in the wrong here and needs to go back home. How that is achieved is the million dollar question.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Owen Jones in the Guardian is telling us how we really can end this. An anti war movement should do the trick. Isn’t Stop The War one of them?

Putin’s aggression makes clear the case for an anti-war movement | Owen Jones

Activists should champion Ukraine’s right to resist and an international order based on shared values and peace, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

 

[Chippy_boy]

We could be for individual countries.

I don’t really care tho as long as it’s a unified response by the West.

I am not up to speed on this, but aren't the EU sanctions applied at an EU level? You'd imagine it was harder to get agreement upon sanctions across 27 nations as opposed to just 1, and in that context I do think our (UK) response is so far sub-par.

 

[mosssideblue]

No fly zones can be an act of aggression rather than a peacekeeping measure - enforcing one in Ukraine now would effectively be war with Russia.

We have an island mentality here regarding all borders as hard lines. The reality elsewhere is more fluid I suppose - Ukraine for example they probably regard themselves as pretty Russian in the east and more European in the west

Of course you are correct, but current peacekeeping methods are not preventing Ukrainian's getting bombs dropped on their towns and cities. They are pleading for help and it is so depressing to hear us say, sorry we cannot help in the way that you want.

I personally believe there will be a line in the sand already drawn out with the US and European Allys.