Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If any of the founding 12 articles are breached then NATO can’t exist. Article 10 states that any European country can ask to join and membership is between extra sting members (the council) and the country requesting accession. No 3rd country involvement. Or should we just unite article 5 if Putin think not attacks Estonia as well it’s only Estonia and they’ve got a fucking woman as leader so probably deserve it?

No, we should probably just say thanks but no thanks to Ukraine for the benefit of global security, while attaching heavy strings to this concession to Putin - ie he gets out and stays out.

 

[Allnightlong]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

 

[Chris B]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

I suspect one issue is that many of the people we’d like to sanction are not only Russian but also UK citizens. Certainly it has been rumoured that Usmanov has UK citizenship (perhaps conferred as an honorary status by the UK government in more peaceful times).

Hopefully, they can be stripped of the citizenship and sanctioned but it could be a longer process.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

Yep, hard to ensure they target Russia without turning into acts of self harm for ourselves or our allies.

 

[wolviedinho]

Compromise.... is it possible?

High level strategy; Could the West agree to give Putin the parts of Ukraine he claims to be his and separate it it from the remainder. I know this would be an almost impossible task, but then to invite Ukranians to locate themselves on the side they want to live (East v West) then build another iron curtain.

Could that work?

Give into a madman? He will take what he wants anyway. Ukraine is fucked. Plundered for resources and a timely reminder to the west to stop spreading east. The reality is that Russia have a lunatic in charge. You cant deal with crazy.

Ukraine will fall and the west will either have to accept it or turn a blind eye. Option 3 is going to war and that is not on the table.

Peace will only happen once putin has succeeded. Then talks will begin.

 

[mosssideblue]

Compromise.... is it possible?

High level strategy; Could the West agree to give Putin the parts of Ukraine he claims to be his and separate it it from the remainder. I know this would be an almost impossible task, but then to invite Ukranians to locate themselves on the side they want to live (East v West) then build another iron curtain.

Could that work?

Ukraine is not the west's to give

 

[BlueAnorak]

We do seem to be taking our time with the sanctions, should be much much wider than they currently are.

UK litigation with Oligarch's is the answer to this question.
Why us the EU so far behind the UK supplying Arms for the Ukrainians to defend themselves.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think some of the “Oh please, make this stop!” ideas are simple wishing.

Putin wants ALL of Ukraine. He wants a puppet in place, just like in Belarus, so he has an eastern buffer of “independent” dependencies that he fills with Russian military bases.

He wants ALL of the northern coast of the Black Sea, so his Med/MidEast fleet has unfettered access and US warships, etc. have to steer much clearer of Sevastopol and Odessa.

And, while he’s at it, he’d like the Baltic ELL states back as dependencies, so he has a land bridge to Kaliningrad, his only year round ice free port in N. Europe, and their coastlines.

This is not his endgame, it’s his opening gambit!

 

[Chippy_boy]

2. seems most likely at present, with Putin declaring that the 'special military operation' (TM) has achieved it's aims, conveniently never having explicitly stated what those aims are, probably after he has concluded that their in it for the long haul and have no way of taking the whole country. The question is, how much of Ukraine will they have at that point (my guess is a land bridge to Crimea and the wider area around those two eastern provinces would be minimum acceptable to him) and whether there is an ongoing insurgency in those areas thereafter.

Just putting it out there: If 2 is the most likely, might it not be better to try to negotiate that now, whilst all of Ukraine is not lost, rather than wait until Putin holds all the cards (in Ukraine)? Not least if it reduces greatly the numbers of senseless deaths?

Give him is small victory which allows him to save face. (But in reality he knows he lost and would not dare try it again). And is allowing to return to Russia, regions which actually if allowed a democratic vote of their own, might very well wish to be part of Russia, so terribly bad? If for example Luhansk and Donetsk actually WANT to be part of Russia?

 

[Chris B]

People making out that this is a league table of who is the best at sanctions. We have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes. I think we should be happy that things across the board are getting done.

True, but here is a league table of sorts for those that are interested. This is produced by an organisation with links to the former chess champion and Putin critic Gary Kasparov, who is looking to provide pressure to governments to do more.
https://fight4ukraine.com/