Russian invasion of Ukraine
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Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
It happened yesterday.
Was nothing really. And the Freedom of Russia Legion opened an evac corridor last night to let people leave it is now closed whilst they do what they do.
Metal Biker
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So who are these "Good Russians" that are fighting against Putin?
What do we know about them and how influential they might be?
What do we know about them and how influential they might be?
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
They have been fighting against putin for a long time, full of all kinds of people some no doubt unsavoury types. They go over the border every now and again and carry out exercises. Personally don't think they will start a revolution they are too small, but it does make putin look bad I suppose that he cannot keep control of them.
Loads of vids and info in this reddit about them. https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/new/
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SebastianBlue
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Thought I would take this post from the Donald Trump thread to this one to avoid further hijacking discussion about how much of a **** the orange despotic moron is.
I was coming on to point out that the Soviet Union no longer exists, so the assurances (not legally binding commitments, none such ever existed) of no eastern NATO expansion to that entity are not only null and void in principle, but for the security of Europe and protection of the sovereignty of the independent states that once comprised the Soviet Union, they needed to be wholly ignored as soon as Putin came to power, as he has actually violated numerous legally binding agreements, treaties, settlements, international laws, and the sovereignty of several independent European states since the early days of his reign on his quest for the reformation of a new Soviet Union in his kleptocratic, authoritarian vision.
Arguing that NATO should ignore independent state interest (and outright application) to join the defence organization over the past 20 years or so because of assurances made to a defunct nation that once possessed the territory in which those independent states now exist is like saying Great Britain and France should have ignored Hitler invading Poland because Warmia and Masuria was once part of East Prussia, the Treaty of Versailles was signed, and earlier appeasement from Chamberlain and Daladier. The fact that political analysts and historians liken Putin's 2008 invasion of Georgia to Hitler's annexing of Sudetenland as the "green light" signal that Europe was weak and could not functionally oppose further territorially expansion should give one pause whenever one tries to make the "NATO is the aggressor argument".
But @flook beat me to it with his excellent post.
Here there's numerous documents showing security assurances against eastwards NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner:
NATO Expansion: What Gorbachev Heard | National Security Archive
Western leaders gave multiple assurances against NATO expansion to Gorbachev in 1990-1991 according to declassified American, Russian, British, Germans documentsnsarchive.gwu.edu
I was coming on to point out that the Soviet Union no longer exists, so the assurances (not legally binding commitments, none such ever existed) of no eastern NATO expansion to that entity are not only null and void in principle, but for the security of Europe and protection of the sovereignty of the independent states that once comprised the Soviet Union, they needed to be wholly ignored as soon as Putin came to power, as he has actually violated numerous legally binding agreements, treaties, settlements, international laws, and the sovereignty of several independent European states since the early days of his reign on his quest for the reformation of a new Soviet Union in his kleptocratic, authoritarian vision.
Arguing that NATO should ignore independent state interest (and outright application) to join the defence organization over the past 20 years or so because of assurances made to a defunct nation that once possessed the territory in which those independent states now exist is like saying Great Britain and France should have ignored Hitler invading Poland because Warmia and Masuria was once part of East Prussia, the Treaty of Versailles was signed, and earlier appeasement from Chamberlain and Daladier. The fact that political analysts and historians liken Putin's 2008 invasion of Georgia to Hitler's annexing of Sudetenland as the "green light" signal that Europe was weak and could not functionally oppose further territorially expansion should give one pause whenever one tries to make the "NATO is the aggressor argument".
But @flook beat me to it with his excellent post.
Blue Maverick
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Where does this all end, we have two very different ideologies West and East, Russia is basically run by a Mafia type, they will never give up power, anyone who challenges or even gets into power will fall out of a window in the end as those “gangs “ would see their power diminish if they went towards a western style democracy. On the other side how many times have the west tried regime change to better a country and it’s worked? Look at Iraq, Afghanistan and many countries the USA have been involved with in Central America.
I do wonder what the world will become in the next 5/10 years, many haven’t got a pot to piss in these days (compared to a few years ago) the rich and the powerful keep getting rich and powerful and everyone else’s existence seems to be an inconvenience to them. You only have to look at our own Houses of Parliament to see a bunch of self serving fuckers who argue like children whilst achieving very little. I do worry for my daughter’s future but what the fuck can you do? The ballot box these days is pointless, we just seem to be heading towards the inevitable, the world is on self destruct, Cold War almost seems a blessing these days.
I do wonder what the world will become in the next 5/10 years, many haven’t got a pot to piss in these days (compared to a few years ago) the rich and the powerful keep getting rich and powerful and everyone else’s existence seems to be an inconvenience to them. You only have to look at our own Houses of Parliament to see a bunch of self serving fuckers who argue like children whilst achieving very little. I do worry for my daughter’s future but what the fuck can you do? The ballot box these days is pointless, we just seem to be heading towards the inevitable, the world is on self destruct, Cold War almost seems a blessing these days.
City Hobgoblin
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FEWER words
SebastianBlue
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BlueAnorak
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Stuff:
The 2 Patriot missile launchers confirmed destroyed earlier in the week.
Russian stuff blowing up: Russians vote in sham election
Russia hit Odessa with missiles in a double-tap attack, killing at least 20 people and injuring at least 73. A double-tap attack — sending a second missile later to kill first responders — is nothing more than terrorism. One of the dead is a paramedic,...
www.dailykos.com
The 2 Patriot missile launchers confirmed destroyed earlier in the week.
Scottyboi
Well-Known Member
From "The Analyst":
NUKES IN BELARUS, FRENCH IN ODESA, LIBERATION FORCES IN RUSSIA
President Putin’s upcoming automated re-election has inspired a great deal of external tinkering. The liberation brigades once again are making a huge splash in the border zones, which the Russians are far from containing even though they eventually will force a withdrawal that we all know is already planned. The mayhem it causes while it’s happening is entirely the point of the operation.
France has approved the security agreement with Ukraine and is now seriously talking of sending troops to Odesa within a year. The point of this is to internationalise the port to allow grain exports to continue by sea without the relentless attacks by Russian drones - many nations - most of them in Africa depend on that grain and it’s about securing that export chain.
It also has another point. Moldovan politicians are either pro Russian or pro western and Russian interference in the country has been relentless.
This has been largely due to its previous interference and effective occupation of the slither of territory known as Transnistria. Their troops are still there, mostly garrisoning a huge weapons depot that sits right on the Ukraine border.
They have been stuck there since the war began unable to leave or be rotated. Moldovan opposition leaders have recently been to Moscow begging for help. There have even been rumours that Russia would mount an airborne assault on Moldova from Crimea - but that’s verging on the ludicrous - Moldova is under constant NATO AWACS surveillance and NATO air forces patrol very close by. And the Ukrainians would know and they wouldn’t stand by and let it happen.
Besides which the Russian VDV is not what it was! And the Air Force is hardly in a position to mount such an operation.
Putin’s growing frustrations over military failings to advance at the pace he expected, despite almost unlimited resources but also at huge cost, the stepping up of European leadership to the point where France especially is prepared to act it seems, has thrown him off balance. This was not expected.
Add to that the massive NATO exercise in Scandinavia and the Baltic, in the middle of which Sweden joins the NATO alliance having been neutral for over 200 years - all because of him and what he’s done - and the pressure has clearly gotten to him.
He faces a set of challenges he has never predicted. Europe has seen the light. And it’s not backing down despite the disinformation campaigns. If anything it’s in spite of them. Equal and opposite reactions come to mind.
So what does he do? He orders tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus in full view. More nuclear threats.
Because that’s all he has left.
Now don’t get me wrong, if pushed way too far he would use them. But he’s nowhere near at that point yet and he knows the consequences would be severe, if not crippling. Even the Chinese and certainly India would be racing for the exits. In many ways the threats over nuclear use exacerbate the facts over how weak Russian conventional forces outside of Ukraine are. Everything is tied up in this war, there’s nothing left to fight anyone except perhaps at sea.
Nuclear threats are a weakness, a
‘Tell’ that no poker player should give out so easily.
When you invade someone and get it wrong and you then dig in thinking time is on your side, you have to be ironclad in your resolve, making silly nuclear threats every other week shows you lack confidence. It shows that you think your enemies think you have become weak and you need to remind them you have a means of reaching them anywhere. Well they can reach you too. And don’t you forget it. Which is why your threats can be ignored. Nothing has happened to justify nuclear use, not even in Russian terms, though some undoubtedly think otherwise in the Kremlin’s darker depths.
Putin put himself in this position.
Putin can get himself out of it. If not, the collective west will do its best to assist him out of Ukraine’s land.
Because clearly that’s the only solution - his own failure will bring him down.
NUKES IN BELARUS, FRENCH IN ODESA, LIBERATION FORCES IN RUSSIA
President Putin’s upcoming automated re-election has inspired a great deal of external tinkering. The liberation brigades once again are making a huge splash in the border zones, which the Russians are far from containing even though they eventually will force a withdrawal that we all know is already planned. The mayhem it causes while it’s happening is entirely the point of the operation.
France has approved the security agreement with Ukraine and is now seriously talking of sending troops to Odesa within a year. The point of this is to internationalise the port to allow grain exports to continue by sea without the relentless attacks by Russian drones - many nations - most of them in Africa depend on that grain and it’s about securing that export chain.
It also has another point. Moldovan politicians are either pro Russian or pro western and Russian interference in the country has been relentless.
This has been largely due to its previous interference and effective occupation of the slither of territory known as Transnistria. Their troops are still there, mostly garrisoning a huge weapons depot that sits right on the Ukraine border.
They have been stuck there since the war began unable to leave or be rotated. Moldovan opposition leaders have recently been to Moscow begging for help. There have even been rumours that Russia would mount an airborne assault on Moldova from Crimea - but that’s verging on the ludicrous - Moldova is under constant NATO AWACS surveillance and NATO air forces patrol very close by. And the Ukrainians would know and they wouldn’t stand by and let it happen.
Besides which the Russian VDV is not what it was! And the Air Force is hardly in a position to mount such an operation.
Putin’s growing frustrations over military failings to advance at the pace he expected, despite almost unlimited resources but also at huge cost, the stepping up of European leadership to the point where France especially is prepared to act it seems, has thrown him off balance. This was not expected.
Add to that the massive NATO exercise in Scandinavia and the Baltic, in the middle of which Sweden joins the NATO alliance having been neutral for over 200 years - all because of him and what he’s done - and the pressure has clearly gotten to him.
He faces a set of challenges he has never predicted. Europe has seen the light. And it’s not backing down despite the disinformation campaigns. If anything it’s in spite of them. Equal and opposite reactions come to mind.
So what does he do? He orders tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus in full view. More nuclear threats.
Because that’s all he has left.
Now don’t get me wrong, if pushed way too far he would use them. But he’s nowhere near at that point yet and he knows the consequences would be severe, if not crippling. Even the Chinese and certainly India would be racing for the exits. In many ways the threats over nuclear use exacerbate the facts over how weak Russian conventional forces outside of Ukraine are. Everything is tied up in this war, there’s nothing left to fight anyone except perhaps at sea.
Nuclear threats are a weakness, a
‘Tell’ that no poker player should give out so easily.
When you invade someone and get it wrong and you then dig in thinking time is on your side, you have to be ironclad in your resolve, making silly nuclear threats every other week shows you lack confidence. It shows that you think your enemies think you have become weak and you need to remind them you have a means of reaching them anywhere. Well they can reach you too. And don’t you forget it. Which is why your threats can be ignored. Nothing has happened to justify nuclear use, not even in Russian terms, though some undoubtedly think otherwise in the Kremlin’s darker depths.
Putin put himself in this position.
Putin can get himself out of it. If not, the collective west will do its best to assist him out of Ukraine’s land.
Because clearly that’s the only solution - his own failure will bring him down.