Scottish independence

[Ronnie the Rep]

That's because labour have altered many boundaries to make it much easier for them to get a majority. This would have been redressed so that things were even until that two faced tosser clegg reneged on the deal because he lost the vote on PR

This is once again, nonsense, from start to finish. The independent Boundary Commissions alter boundaries, not political parties, and it is cited as a reason by people who haven't the first clue about why our electoral system works the way it does. The main reasons why Labour usually wins more seats for the same vote share is that turnout tends to be lower in safe Labour seats than in safe Conservative seats. Effectively, tories tend to vote more frequently even if it is not required. You could redraw boundaries if you like, it wouldn't change anything, unless you got rid of FPTP. Secondly, we have never voted on PR. Thirdly, those who win elections, win the marginals. The better you are at it, the more disproportionate the votes. In the 1980s, it took many fewer votes for the Conservatives to win seats. Why? Because they won the elections, and by large margins. The more you win elections, the more you win marginals, the more a small number of votes effects greatly the number of seats. Under FPTP, that is the only way it can be. Either you win elections, win marginals, and win more seats per vote, or you lose elections, lose marginals, and win fewer seats per vote. There's no magic in it. Fourthly, seems superfluous even to mention it but the main reason Cameron was even getting away with challenging the independence of the Boundary Commissions is because, in a politically-motivated move, he was trying to advantage his own party by reducing the number of seats. So you've flipped it on its head.

My mistake about the PR. According to the guardian (hardly likely to favour the conservatives) say that the system is biased in favour of labour. For a start, their constituencies are smaller. Therefore, as you say, a low turnout doesn't hurt them. I accept that the 600 is the figure that would hurt labour most but if, as the article says, a big part of the reduction would be in Scotland then it is a moot point if the jocks bugger off anyway - that's not going to lose the Tories seats as they haven't got any :-)


Anyway, got to be up early so goodnight

 

[BigJimLittleJim]

"there will only be a conservative government from now on", that's a long time Ronnie, must be one hell of a crystal ball you've got there!

I've pointed out that this is nonsense over and over again. The last time the Conservatives won a majority of seats in England was 1992. The last time Labour won a majority of seats in England was 2005.

2005 election results in England:
Labour - 286 seats
Tories - 194 seats
Lib Dems - 47 seats
IKHH - 1 seat
Respect - 1 seat

2001 election results in England:
Labour - 323 seats
Tories - 165 seats
Lib Dems - 40 seats
Independent - 1 seat

1997 election results in England:
Labour - 328 seats
Tories - 165 seats
Lib Dems - 34 seats
Independent - 1 seat
NLP - 1 seat

There have only been two elections which Labour has won where it didn't win a majority in England. Basically, when Labour wins elections, it wins in England.

That's because labour have altered many boundaries to make it much easier for them to get a majority. This would have been redressed so that things were even until that two faced tosser clegg reneged on the deal because he lost the vote on PR

So that's an admission you were wrong then Ronnster?

 

[Bill Walker]

Give em they're Independence and good luck to them

Great race the Scots

 

[fathellensbellend]

Not read the whole thread, how come the Scots can vote whether they stay or go, and surely in the interest of fairness, we should be allowed to vote if we still want them

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Not read the whole thread, how come the Scots can vote whether they stay or go, and surely in the interest of fairness, we should be allowed to vote if we still want them

If they choose to go for independence will it mean that the Duke of Edinburgh will have to go with them? Please somebody say yes.......

 

[MSP]

GBP already down 7%. If they vote yes, some analysts predict further down up to 15%.

That would be pretty shocking for your buying power.

 

[Gabriel]

GBP already down 7%. If they vote yes, some analysts predict further down up to 15%.

That would be pretty shocking for your buying power.

But good for exports, no?

 

[Juan King]

Not read the whole thread, how come the Scots can vote whether they stay or go, and surely in the interest of fairness, we should be allowed to vote if we still want them

We should be able to deport Lorraine Kelly also & put Hadrian's wall back up.

 

[pee dubya]

Not read the whole thread, how come the Scots can vote whether they stay or go, and surely in the interest of fairness, we should be allowed to vote if we still want them

The culmination of a long, democratic process.

 

[the god Gerry Gow]

Not read the whole thread, how come the Scots can vote whether they stay or go, and surely in the interest of fairness, we should be allowed to vote if we still want them

If they choose to go for independence will it mean that the Duke of Edinburgh will have to go with them? Please somebody say yes.......

Don't think so but look on the bright side it will give him another group of people he can insult

 

[Gelsons Dad]

All the noise this morning is like a fucking desperate girlfriend promising never ending blowjobs if you just give her one more chance. It's fucking embarrassing and there is no wonder the financial markets are starting to react.
If the rUK really want a NO vote then instead of opening our legs and begging we should be clarifying the fundamental terms for independence. We should be explaining how a country with no central bank who is determined to default on their share of the national debt will get no support from the BoE and how we will offer tax breaks to all UK companies who chose to relocate their domicile to England from Scotland.

The Yes vote is an emotional one. If you really want to defeat it you need to clarify the stark realities of the financial consequences. iScotland will be lucky to have a BBB credit rating and won't be able to afford to borrow the start up capital required to put it's services in place. It will lead to many years of spiralling Scottish national debt, lower living standards and mass economic migration. This is the reality of independence but no one is telling them this.

I'm in favour of independence if that's what they want. Why the fuck not. Good luck.

 

[york away to this!]

...can we build a big wall yet?...

 

[TGR]

All the noise this morning is like a fucking desperate girlfriend promising never ending blowjobs if you just give her one more chance. It's fucking embarrassing and there is no wonder the financial markets are starting to react.
If the rUK really want a NO vote then instead of opening our legs and begging we should be clarifying the fundamental terms for independence. We should be explaining how a country with no central bank who is determined to default on their share of the national debt will get no support from the BoE and how we will offer tax breaks to all UK companies who chose to relocate their domicile to England from Scotland.

The Yes vote is an emotional one. If you really want to defeat it you need to clarify the stark realities of the financial consequences. iScotland will be lucky to have a BBB credit rating and won't be able to afford to borrow the start up capital required to put it's services in place. It will lead to many years of spiralling Scottish national debt, lower living standards and mass economic migration. This is the reality of independence but no one is telling them this.

I'm in favour of independence if that's what they want. Why the fuck not. Good luck.

Bang on the money Gelson.
As I have stated previously the turkeys are about to vote for Christmas.
I do believe they have been told of the reality- but this is seen as a 'negative campaign' by the Let's Stay Together group and is also something they don't want to hear or believe. By definition 'No' is negative so it has been attacked as scaremongering and in some cases a lack of patriotism.
Salmond has sold them a vision of a socialist utopia and for all of his faults he is a damn fine salesman to be fair.
The reality as you state is very much different. Very much different indeed.

Like you I am 100% in favour of independence if that is what the majority vote for. That is democracy in action.
I genuinely do hope it happens a week on Thursday for the sake of both the Scottish and the rest of the union's people.

 

[SWP's back]

If Yes, surely these two dudes would have to resign (for different reasons).

You've stated this many times and I really don't understand the logic.

Cameron - disastrous No campaign by Tories, not fighting for the Union with any conviction, devo max not on voting paper, timing of vote terrible. Now handing over the reins to Brown.To lose the Union is a massive loss of prestige to Britain and he would have overseen it. As Adam Boulton said it will be written on his tombstone.
Milliband - has really been invisible in the campaign and has been complacent and yet his party has more to lose politically than the Tories.i.e labour out of power for the foreseeable future.

I think Cameron and the Tories will, from a political point of view, more than see the silver side of that particular cloud as Labour lose 40 seats.

As stated, the Tories would have needed no coalition this time around and the results of 4 post war elections would have changed.

 

[SWP's back]

"there will only be a conservative government from now on", that's a long time Ronnie, must be one hell of a crystal ball you've got there!

I've pointed out that this is nonsense over and over again. The last time the Conservatives won a majority of seats in England was 1992. The last time Labour won a majority of seats in England was 2005.

2005 election results in England:
Labour - 286 seats
Tories - 194 seats
Lib Dems - 47 seats
IKHH - 1 seat
Respect - 1 seat

2001 election results in England:
Labour - 323 seats
Tories - 165 seats
Lib Dems - 40 seats
Independent - 1 seat

1997 election results in England:
Labour - 328 seats
Tories - 165 seats
Lib Dems - 34 seats
Independent - 1 seat
NLP - 1 seat

There have only been two elections which Labour has won where it didn't win a majority in England. Basically, when Labour wins elections, it wins in England.

Blair is the only Labour PM elected by a majority in England in 64 years so it's no surprise you cherry pick his 3 election wins.

 

[Anonymous]

Maybe Scotland breaking away will see some positive constitutional reforms this side of the border too? Or maybe not? Opportunity for a visionary to have his/her name writ large in the history books.

 

[RP2]

I predict a huge 'No' vote - by 70% or more

 

[Gabriel]

Maybe Scotland breaking away will see some positive constitutional reforms this side of the border too? Or maybe not? Opportunity for a visionary to have his/her name writ large in the history books.

The almost immediate effect of a 'Yes' vote in England would likely be an overwhelming thrashing at Clacton for the Conservatives, and the entry into Parliament of UKIP; all potentially on David Cameron's birthday. A Scottish 'Yes' could easily be construed as sticking two fingers up at the established system, so it could just as easily encourage more people to follow suit and vote UKIP. After that, my crystal ball starts to fill with mist and I feel faint...

 

[Ducado]

I predict a huge 'No' vote - by 70% or more

Maybe not by that much but I agree with you on the outcome

 

[hgblue]

I predict a huge 'No' vote - by 70% or more

Maybe not by that much but I agree with you on the outcome

The funny thing is that at the start of the process I was pro-union and hoping for no vote, but listening to the 'it's our pound', 'it's our oil', 'we're better off without the English', debate that's taken place up there, I'm now actually hoping for a yes.