Gabriel
Well-Known Member
I think they'l lose a fair few if not most.
The 2017 election was for the Tories in Scotland what 2015 was for the SNP - the stars aligning.
In 2015, SNP had the pick of independence wishful being disappointed, protest votes of those feeling let down by other main parties making and then quickly forgetting big promises, and those that Would vote snp but don't because they are against independence, thinking the issue was put to bed switching over.
In 2017, the Tories had the protest vote to the SNP. That earlier landslide election win, many of their MPs (fair few first timers) acted like twats in Westminster, with the selfies, the bravado, etc etc. Pissed a few right off. Jumping the indyref2 gun straight after brexit backfired too. Some thought it was done, didn't want to revisit it, and some that did, were just so fatigued. It was way to soon.
On top of that, lib-dems lost all credibility in the 2015 elections, Kezzia Dugdale openly advocated tactical voting to keep the snp out even at the expense of her own struggling party. And Ruth Davidson, fresh off the back of some honest and passionate very well performed anti-brexit campaigning offered something a bit new. With her supposed 'scotland first' attitude, she emphasised the 'Scottish' in Scottish Conservatives and convinced(tricked) a few that she wouldn't always toe the party politics from Westminster, but would prioritise Scotland's interests.
Theresa May might have got that election call wrong overall, but she absolutely nailed the timing in Scotland.
I personally can't see the Tories retaining many of those seats. Not all will be lost to SNP either, some will go to the lib-dems.
But as always in UK politics, nothing ould surprise me. (apart from when it does).
Suppose a great deal will depend when an election falls and what shape/stage Brexit is in at that point. If it looks highly unfavourable to Scotland, then I can see the Scottish Conservatives losing perhaps ten of the thirteen seats. Bowie, Lamont, and Mundell currently enjoy majorities that should be defendable, but if farming areas deem the Brexit deal as damaging to both their businesses and communities, then even these MPs could be under threat. The true effect of Davidson's standing down may only be apparent after the dust settles.
Brexit should have been a gift to the SNP, especially a No Deal one, but with that looking less likely, and Sturgeon having to strike a balance between realpolitik and appeasing the more visceral voters, then it is not clear how the situation will develop.