I'll qualify this before getting jumped upon - I'm not assuming we will make the final, but this is what I think the situation is SHOULD we make the final:
I reckon anywhere from 16-18,000 will go to those on the cup scheme. I'm not sure how many more have signed up to the scheme than did in 2022/23, but I think it was quite low last season. In an allocation of 19,000 for Istanbul, after OSC and hangers on, I reckon roughly 13,000 went to points/scheme. Everyone on the scheme who wanted one got one, but there were plenty who got them through people on the scheme who didn't travel. My guess is that nearly full utilisation of the scheme took place, suggesting we had 12,000ish on the scheme. It sold out quickly after the scheme but people paid top dollar.
This time I think we have more on the scheme but not as many as people make out. Just look around at a CL game - how many regulars do you see? If we've 5,000 more on the scheme then I think we may just about satisfy everyone on the scheme.
My own opinion is that nobody on the scheme should go without at the expense of the OSC. If that happens then it is disgraceful.