WOW!!!
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Semi finals (City v Real and A Madrid v Bayern)
- Thread starter Witney Blue
- Start date
WOW!!!
Lancet Fluke
Well-Known Member
I thought it was a pretty tough group when it was drawn but an odd one, a group I could see us winning but genuinely also potentially see us coming 3rd or 4th in.The first time we've had a decent group & we're in the Semis.
How many clubs have been shafted by their seeding system over the years ? A club wins the league, no CL experience, gets fucking Barcelona & a couple of other experienced CL teams.
Same next time if they ever get there again.
As I read it, odds in betting it would equate to .666r for the kept apart bit, even money for both drawn at home in the second leg, odds calculated as 1.666r x 2 x 2 - 1 for the stake, 5.67/1 for the treble, stick that on as a bet and you would draw 6.67 if the bookies gave you the full odds which of course they wouldn't!This is symmetrical wrt being kept apart, so let's look at Bayern.
Bayern must either draw City, Madrid or Atletico with equal probability.
So the odds of Bayern being separate from Madrid are 2 in 3.
The chance of Bayern having a home tie in the 2nd leg is 1 in 2 (by "home tie" I assume you mean that they're playing the 2nd match at home). Same goes for Madrid. (I assume that the home versus away decision is made in some random fashion with equal probability of either outcome).
So the probability you asked for is 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/6 = a bit over 16.5% or roughly 17% as kenzie115 states above.
Centurions
Well-Known Member
Not a chance, @jrb will be organising a walk out in the 90th minute as a protest at the prices ;)Forget all the "I would have preferred Atletico" etc.. Let's focus on Real now.
Last time we played them in Madrid, we were 4 minutes from victory. We are in this position on merit, fuck what the media says. The players will believe they can reach the final, we have a great chance if we are still in the tie when we go to Madrid.
Being at home first leg, the Etihad will be rocking. I'm confident we'll be in Milan
(sorry, jrb, I just couldn't resist)
Inter Me Nan
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 2 Aug 2012
- Messages
- 10,303
No it'll be moved to Monday.Will Southampton remain Sunday then ?
Terra Passenger
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 16 Feb 2012
- Messages
- 1,039
Atletico were ruthless against Barca over both legs. If Torres didn't get sent off in the first leg it could have been really lopsided in favor of AM.Forget all the "I would have preferred Atletico" etc.. Let's focus on Real now.
Atletico shut down the best offense in football and then countered with considerable threat. If there's one team I don't want to meet, it's Atletico - we're good going forward (but not as good as Barca) and our defense, while pretty good when set, is very susceptible whenever we turn the ball over.
Atletico is our worst match-up IMO.
OtOH, I fancy our chances against Madrid. I'd say we're 60% likely to advance.
Madrid will be supremely over-confident against us.
They will have the majority of possession, which will actually suit us. Once they turn the ball over, they're going to be in huge trouble with one or both fullbacks way up the pitch.
burning blue soul
Well-Known Member
How exciting. Us maybe winning the chumps, scouse maybe winning the euro and a fantastic clash in the super cup in the offing as well..
Scouse v utd (if they win the fa cup)
Scouse v utd (if they win the fa cup)
TheBlueDune
Well-Known Member
Don't think away goals in extra time count.One advantage is if it goes to extra time 'away' goals
If 0-0 after 180 minutes I don't think you win by being 1-1 AET.
Anyway, 2-0 at home with a goal in Madrid means they'd have to score 4.
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