The Conservative Party/Government

[Fred_Quimby]

Looking like another budget later in the year in a final gasp for votes. I was beginning to worry about my pension pot. I suspect they were thinking of attacking that to claw back some money from the triple lock but that would just about finish the FOC voters.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

I have no problem with Reform spending the next 20 years splitting the right, if I'm honest. Unfortunately, that's not usually what happens, and Tories tend to vote Tory when push comes to shove, which is why UKIP never won a single seat in how many attempts?

 

[TinFoilHat]

I have no problem with Reform spending the next 20 years splitting the right, if I'm honest. Unfortunately, that's not usually what happens, and Tories tend to vote Tory when push comes to shove, which is why UKIP never won a single seat in how many attempts?

Reform could damage the Tories the way the SDP damaged labour in the 80s.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Yes i do, but to me their apex vote share will be this election, but the knock on effect to the Conservative Party will be large, as they try to win back their voters (probably by appointing Farage as leader)

How are they different to UKIP/Brexit parties?

They seem like one GE grifter parties that washed up politicians float through before hitting the political scrap heap.

What do you think their name will be in 2029? The Reconstruction Party?

 

[Phil1]

The reform party can fuck off. You’ve gotta be a special kind of **** to be sticking an X next to their name on the ballot sheet.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Wonder if you government or similar could do analysis on those 63 areas and see how many are way behind in the polls and are jumping ship so they don't have to lose. I suspect it's the vast majority.

I suspect you could find around 10 with reasonably legitimate reasons.
May probably doesn't see a value in fighting a losing battle for sanity within the party
Wallace's constituency is being dissolved.
Grayling has cancer
A few senior ex-ministers who've been burned - Raab, Sharma, etc.
One or two announced over 2 years ago that they wouldn't stand.

Then there are the obvious chancers chasing money/influence - Kwarteng is an obvious one.

Focussing on those who've only had 1-2 full terms - 2015 onwards, so from Cameron's win - would be interesting though. The only trouble is that most of the seats seem to be at risk, so it'll reinforce itself!

 

[shemnel]

How are they different to UKIP/Brexit parties?

They seem like one GE grifter parties that washed up politicians float through before hitting the political scrap heap.

What do you think their name will be in 2029? The Reconstruction Party?

I'm not sure they are that different really; they represent a confused and frustrated (not to mention intentionally stoked) section of the political right in this country. To me the world feels angrier. I would say they are probably going to be represented more like UKIP in the 2015 election; tonnes of votes but barely any seats. Another 'jolt in the arm' to the Conservative Party, taking them further right. Traditionally the UKIP/Brexit vote sits at about 600k, similar to Greens, but i see Reform echoing UKIP under Farage at much bigger numbers.

what will they become after that? god knows. the Torture Party.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I'm not sure they are that different really; they represent a confused and frustrated (not to mention intentionally stoked) section of the political right in this country. To me the world feels angrier. I would say they are probably going to be represented more like UKIP in the 2015 election; tonnes of votes but barely any seats. Another 'jolt in the arm' to the Conservative Party, taking them further right. Traditionally the UKIP/Brexit vote sits at about 600k, similar to Greens, but i see Reform echoing UKIP under Farage at much bigger numbers.

what will they become after that? god knows. the Torture Party.

If the Conservatives want to continue on this trajectory of pandering to the right which has laid the groundwork for them likely being annihilated to historic proportions then they are even stupider than I thought.

No party can win in this country without the centre ground. Starmer, for all his flaws, knows this. David Cameron knows this. The far right protest vote parties have a ceiling that sits at about 15-20%. But in merging too closely with them the Tories will simply guarantee that the other 80-85% never vote for them - and that percentage is growing as more young voters become eligible and older voters die. The only way that segment impacts policy is by pulling a centre right party in their direction on certain issues - as they are doing right now on immigration.

If the Conservatives ever want to get in power again they need to start finding a way to appeal to people under 50 with whom they are catastrophically unpopular. The way to doing that isn’t through extreme positions, if they go down that path then I expect they will eventually be replaced in opposition by the Lib Dems (that could even happen this time round, though very unlikely).

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I'm not sure they are that different really; they represent a confused and frustrated (not to mention intentionally stoked) section of the political right in this country. To me the world feels angrier. I would say they are probably going to be represented more like UKIP in the 2015 election; tonnes of votes but barely any seats. Another 'jolt in the arm' to the Conservative Party, taking them further right. Traditionally the UKIP/Brexit vote sits at about 600k, similar to Greens, but i see Reform echoing UKIP under Farage at much bigger numbers.

what will they become after that? god knows. the Torture Party.

It’s more a party for the midlife crisis/fathers for justice type people that aren’t really politically active, but have populist views.

They'll always be around in the background, but should never be near power as most of their policies are destructive, rather than constructive.

 

[Postman Pep]