The Conservative Party

[domalino]

The polling is undeniably still around extreme levels for the Tories, but it’s also not dissimilar to that seen at a comparable point ahead of the 1992 election.

Methodological changes (brought about by the 92 election result) have to be considered of course, but the interesting aspect and potentially relevant point is how the Conservative support improved from its 1990 low as the inflation and interest rate cycles reversed, something which will happen over the remainder of this year.

I don’t think the Conservatives will win the next election, but I still believe that Sunak does have a very narrow path to potentially making it into a tight contest, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the polls do close significantly over the next 12 months.

I think much more likely is that this very small narrowing caused by immigration chest thumping subsides as soon as the tories hit their next scandal - maybe that led by donkies second jobs thing - and Labour are back to 25-30 by summer.

 

[Brewster's millions]

Whilst there was a brief period in 1990 at the height of the poll tax debacle when Labour polled above 50%, the Tories never went below 30%. Once the poll tax was consigned to the scrap heap, the conservatives recovered and polling was fairly tight in the 18 month run up to the 1992 election. The current government don’t have a similar clearly defined unpopular policy they can ditch to give them a boost. The damage has been done through years of sleaze, economic mismanagement and taking the piss out of the electorate with party gate, which is something they can’t undo. It’s really not comparable in the slightest.

So you don’t think that an improvement in the economy and inflation will have an impact on the opinion polls, even though the economy and inflation are the two factors which have routinely topped the list of most important factors for the electorate over the past year?

 

[Brewster's millions]

I think much more likely is that this very small narrowing caused by immigration chest thumping subsides as soon as the tories hit their next scandal - maybe that led by donkies second jobs thing - and Labour are back to 25-30 by summer.

I don’t necessarily disagree regarding the latest movement in the polls - it could have been the immigration noise driving it - but I would still argue that the government’s polling will improve as inflation and interest rates fall.

If they’re still 10-15 points behind, then it obviously won’t matter, but it would be a bit of a stretch to say that record levels of inflation haven’t impacted the opinion polls over the past six or nine months.

 

[west didsblue]

So you don’t think that an improvement in the economy and inflation will have an impact on the opinion polls, even though the economy and inflation are the two factors which have routinely topped the list of most important factors for the electorate over the past year?

Of course they will but there’s absolutely no way the gap will close enough to make it close.

 

[joe123]

Of course they will but there’s absolutely no way the gap will close enough to make it close.

The wishful thinker in me wants to agree with you that it won't be close. However, I was listening to the News Agent podcast last week and they had a pollster on who pointed out that Starmer and Sunak poll much closer than Labour and Tory, and that leader polling has been a more reliable indicator of results in the past. I couldn't be arsed verifying that, but it's interesting food for thought. Hopefully Starmer continues to keep his powder dry whilst the Tories pursue non-issues in their culture war and the electorate give them the kicking they deserve.

 

[domalino]

The wishful thinker in me wants to agree with you that it won't be close. However, I was listening to the News Agent podcast last week and they had a pollster on who pointed out that Starmer and Sunak poll much closer than Labour and Tory, and that leader polling has been a more reliable indicator of results in the past. I couldn't be arsed verifying that, but it's interesting food for thought. Hopefully Starmer continues to keep his powder dry whilst the Tories pursue non-issues in their culture war and the electorate give them the kicking they deserve.

The wishful thinker in me wants to agree with you that it won't be close. However, I was listening to the News Agent podcast last week and they had a pollster on who pointed out that Starmer and Sunak poll much closer than Labour and Tory, and that leader polling has been a more reliable indicator of results in the past. I couldn't be arsed verifying that, but it's interesting food for thought. Hopefully Starmer continues to keep his powder dry whilst the Tories pursue non-issues in their culture war and the electorate give them the kicking they deserve.

Last leader polling has Starmer at +4 favourable and Sunak at -15

So there’s an 18 point gap between leaders as well.

 

[joe123]

Last leader polling has Starmer at +4 favourable and Sunak at -15

So there’s an 18 point gap between leaders as well.

Yep, but the point the guy I was listening to was making is that Sunak is polling better than the Tories generally, and Starmer worse than Labour. He then asks the question whether or not Sunak will decline to match his party, or can he drag them up.

You'd hope and think that Sunak being seen as a 'better Tory' will ultimately be irrelevant - I'm just wary of having backed the wrong horse in every major vote since 2012 that it might not be as clear cut a victory as I'm hoping for.

 

[west didsblue]

The wishful thinker in me wants to agree with you that it won't be close. However, I was listening to the News Agent podcast last week and they had a pollster on who pointed out that Starmer and Sunak poll much closer than Labour and Tory, and that leader polling has been a more reliable indicator of results in the past. I couldn't be arsed verifying that, but it's interesting food for thought. Hopefully Starmer continues to keep his powder dry whilst the Tories pursue non-issues in their culture war and the electorate give them the kicking they deserve.

It seems clear to me that Starmer is playing the game of trying not to piss too many people off rather than trying to be inspirational and trying to target a particular section of the population which means he comes across as a bit dull but competent which he rightly sees as the key to winning the election imo.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Need to add Craig Whittaker Calder Valley MP to the list as he is going too - so many of them can't bear to be voted out so are sloping off whilst they can

 

[Rascal]

Britain elects are currently predicting Labour to win 424 seats. A 286 seat majority.



And as you seem to place so much stock in Britain elects, here's the founder of Britain elects with an article for you.

No, the Tories are not making a dramatic comeback

A new poll by Deltapoll seems to show the Labour lead cut in half. So should Rishi Sunak be celebrating?

sotn.newstatesman.com

Being able to run in an election is a keystone of democracy. Being able to run under the banner of a specific political party isn't, and never has been. No one is stopping Jeremy Corbyn from standing for election.

Are you having a different conversation to me?

If there is an election tomorrow Labour win, i am stating downward trends in support.

Yes I read the NS.