The Conservative Party

Gabriel said:
Patel knocked out and Jenrick top of the pops after round one.
Click to expand...

Difficult to see many Patel votes going to Stride/Tugendhat, so I'd expect Stride to go next on Tuesday.
There doesn't seem much value in tactical voting yet before the conference.

I assume the 3 who didn't vote are those running the vote.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Difficult to see many Patel votes going to Stride/Tugendhat, so I'd expect Stride to go next on Tuesday.
There doesn't seem much value in tactical voting yet before the conference.

I assume the 3 who didn't vote are those running the vote.
Click to expand...
Blackman, chair of the 1922 committee and organiser, was one of the three, but the other two abstainers have not been identified, as far as I can see. Round two on Tuesday next, before the four remaining contenders turn to wooing conference. Irrespective of the eventual winner, with the parliamentary party so divided, they’ll likely be cannibalised and never be put before the general electorate.
 
Gabriel said:
Blackman, chair of the 1922 committee and organiser, was one of the three, but the other two abstainers have not been identified, as far as I can see. Round two on Tuesday next, before the four remaining contenders turn to wooing conference. Irrespective of the eventual winner, with the parliamentary party so divided, they’ll likely be cannibalised and never be put before the general electorate.
Click to expand...

There would surely be more than just Blackman overseeing? But Sky reckon that Sunak is one.

I agree, that's a terrible split. I think 1 will quit during/at the end of the conference session (Tugendhat probably) leaving 3 others for the final vote - Jenrick, Badenoch and probably Cleverley.

The issue is whether Jenrick/Badenoch will play nice if losing, and that they're both on the right. The 118
 
MillionMilesAway said:
There would surely be more than just Blackman overseeing? But Sky reckon that Sunak is one.

I agree, that's a terrible split. I think 1 will quit during/at the end of the conference session (Tugendhat probably) leaving 3 others for the final vote - Jenrick, Badenoch and probably Cleverley.

The issue is whether Jenrick/Badenoch will play nice if losing, and that they're both on the right. The 118
Click to expand...
It will be five leaders in just over eight years, almost all of those spent in power, so it’s difficult to imagine them settling on and fully backing one person now they are in opposition. Brexit has ripped the dressing off and exposed the stitches that held different sides together, but with little hope of returning to power anytime soon, the wound will not be healed and there will be much more bloodletting, starting at conference.
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're dreaming.

May I remind you of this:

Labour polled 9,708,716 votes in the last election.The Conservatives polled 6,828,925. Reform polled 4,117,610.

i.e. The "right" polled 1.2m votes more than Labour. Given just how unpopular the Tories were after 14 years, and considering the high engery prices, higher interest rates, NHS issues etc, this is a staggeringly terrible result for Labour. Only the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post electoral system - which only really works well in a 2-party state - has resulted in such a huge majority for Labour.

But it is a vulnerable huge majority. Apparently a 1% swing from Labour to Tory, loses Labour 50 seats. A 2% swing loese them 100 seats. If the Tories manage to convince just a few of the Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, then Labour will lose the next election.

Conversely, to give you some hope, if the Tories fail to attract sufficient numbers of Reform voters then the right wing vote will again be split and Labour will win again, as last time.

So it is ESSENTIAL that the Tories pick a right wing, anti-mass-immigration candidate. Jenrick and Badenoch are the only two sensible options.
Click to expand...
So the "right" polled more than Labour. The "left", Labour+LibDem+Green+minor "left" parties polled 55%.

As for the last bit, they were ministers in the last high-immigration * Tory government. * And mostly non-white, thanks to Brexit. (But then the Bloviator was all in favour of Brexit because the EU was racist as it favoured freedom of movement only for Europeans, who were mostly white.)

For the sake of the country, I'd rather have a one-nation Tory leader, rather than someone spouting the sort of anti-immigration rhetoric that causes "concerned citizens" to go rioting. (At least they haven't quite got the knack of Braverman's Nazi-isms.) Electorally, I think you underestimate the demographic reality that young people are more happily "multicultural" than the ageing Tory voters. Was the estimate that death costs the Tories 2% of their "natural" voters each year?
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're dreaming.

May I remind you of this:

Labour polled 9,708,716 votes in the last election.The Conservatives polled 6,828,925. Reform polled 4,117,610.

i.e. The "right" polled 1.2m votes more than Labour. Given just how unpopular the Tories were after 14 years, and considering the high engery prices, higher interest rates, NHS issues etc, this is a staggeringly terrible result for Labour. Only the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post electoral system - which only really works well in a 2-party state - has resulted in such a huge majority for Labour.

But it is a vulnerable huge majority. Apparently a 1% swing from Labour to Tory, loses Labour 50 seats. A 2% swing loese them 100 seats. If the Tories manage to convince just a few of the Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, then Labour will lose the next election.

Conversely, to give you some hope, if the Tories fail to attract sufficient numbers of Reform voters then the right wing vote will again be split and Labour will win again, as last time.

So it is ESSENTIAL that the Tories pick a right wing, anti-mass-immigration candidate. Jenrick and Badenoch are the only two sensible options.
Click to expand...

Will you be leaving Bradley Stoke when more black and brown people move into the area?
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're dreaming.

May I remind you of this:

Labour polled 9,708,716 votes in the last election.The Conservatives polled 6,828,925. Reform polled 4,117,610.

i.e. The "right" polled 1.2m votes more than Labour. Given just how unpopular the Tories were after 14 years, and considering the high engery prices, higher interest rates, NHS issues etc, this is a staggeringly terrible result for Labour. Only the peculiarities of our first-past-the-post electoral system - which only really works well in a 2-party state - has resulted in such a huge majority for Labour.

But it is a vulnerable huge majority. Apparently a 1% swing from Labour to Tory, loses Labour 50 seats. A 2% swing loese them 100 seats. If the Tories manage to convince just a few of the Reform voters to come back to the Conservatives, then Labour will lose the next election.

Conversely, to give you some hope, if the Tories fail to attract sufficient numbers of Reform voters then the right wing vote will again be split and Labour will win again, as last time.

So it is ESSENTIAL that the Tories pick a right wing, anti-mass-immigration candidate. Jenrick and Badenoch are the only two sensible options.
Click to expand...

This is a woeful piece of analysis as it completely ignores the 6m people that voted Lib Dem, Green and SNP. Who, if anything, are even more pro-immigration and many of whom will have been voting tactically against the Conservatives. Some of those will have felt more comfortable voting for their choice given the extent of the Labour lead but could be expected to pick Labour over Conservatives in a closer contest.

There is nowhere near a majority for the right in this country and the proportion is getting reliably smaller pretty much every cycle in 2015 it was 49%, 2017 45%, 2019 45%, and 2024 38%.

And let me just say, that’s not going to get any better with time. It’s this kind of fantasy of some “silent majority” that requires more extreme politics that has led the right in this country down this path of oblivion and you seem determined to let them continue over the cliff edge. As a centre voter, I would rather we had an effective opposition.
 
bluethrunthru said:
The worst type of person - rides on the coat tails of others then pulls the ladder up shouting - "thats them - they are down there - don't let them up they are the ones you need to stop"

Click to expand...

Just shows that class loyalty trumps all else when it comes to these cunts. He doesn't oppose asylum seekers coming over here, he opposes asylum seekers who aren't rich enough to make arrangements like his father could. He sees these people as lesser than him, like these power-hungry toffs in the Tory party always do when it comes to poorer people. Is it a surprise that someone from the party of Boris Johnson wants to apply rules to other people that he would never apply to himself or his own family?

I mean well done for calling him out on his hypocrisy, but the idea that his experience is in any way comparable to the people coming over on small boats is laughable. Oh, you went from living an intensely privileged life as one of the richest families in Iraq to having to suffer the indignity of moving to one of the richest countries in the world and attending some of the best private schools in the country? And we're supposed to be surprised he has no sympathy for asylum seekers arriving on foot, in the backs of lorries, and in small boats after handing over their life savings to smugglers?
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
And let me just say, that’s not going to get any better with time. It’s this kind of fantasy of some “silent majority” that requires more extreme politics that has led the right in this country down this path of oblivion and you seem determined to let them continue over the cliff edge. As a centre voter, I would rather we had an effective opposition.
Click to expand...
The irony of a 'silent majority' who never shut the fuck up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top