The FTSE

jacko74

Well-Known Member
Joined
5 May 2009
Messages
1,913
I've not been investing for very long but the volatility I've seen so far means I'm far from convinced that the argument for leaving alone and allowing it to compound makes more sense than frequent profit taking.
 

journolud

Well-Known Member
Joined
26 Apr 2006
Messages
7,557
Location
Macclesfield
Ha, you can’t be complaining too much about the BG American if you’ve held it for 18 months!

Scottish Mortgage Trust is doing me the most damage.

A lot of my profits from it have been wiped out! But yeah, still on the right side by quite a bit

Just looked at Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. Not great but the falls don't look quite as bad as some of the others I'm seeing.
Baille Gifford American check

Scottish Mortgage check

on the bright side you’ve both made me feel better that im not suffering alone
 

Millwallawayveteran1988

Well-Known Member
Joined
23 Sep 2010
Messages
31,580
A lot of this recent sell off is due to the fear that the Fed will raise rates at a pace that the markets don’t like and will wind up their QE programme too quickly. The notes they released earlier this month have spooked markets, in particular growth orientated funds, as the perception is that the cheap money that they have had access to for 13 years is coming to an end.

This has hit Tech hard and other sectors have been hit due to the perceived squeeze that higher rates and inflation will have on spending power. The Fed and other global central banks have a difficult job. Controlling rampant inflation whilst at the same time ensuring that their decisions don’t harm economic recovery is a fine balancing act. I’m sure even the policy makers will be alarmed at how their comments have impacted the markets! It wouldn’t surprise me to see these comments toned down in subsequent meeting minutes.

History has shown that most falls that are severe and reactionary tend to be overdone and the subsequent bounce can be strong. Is Microsoft really worth 12% less than it was 2 weeks ago?

The FTSE100 has held up well due to its constituents being more “old economy” like Oil and Gas, Mining, Banks and Insurers. all benefitting from energy price rises/higher rate perception. It is giving a false impression to many at the moment as that’s the one that tends to be on News at Ten! Value funds are winning the race at the moment but of course they have lagged for years.

My view is if you don’t need the cash, you revert back to your original objective and risk appetite and you step back from looking at it for a few weeks. Sometimes heart rules head when you see your hard earned falling but those who react to short term noise are often the ones who lose out. My pension was down by 35% in the weeks after Covid. It had recovered all of this 6m later. It wasn’t comfortable viewing but I didn’t need or was even able to access it so kept the faith.
 

journolud

Well-Known Member
Joined
26 Apr 2006
Messages
7,557
Location
Macclesfield
A lot of this recent sell off is due to the fear that the Fed will raise rates at a pace that the markets don’t like and will wind up their QE programme too quickly. The notes they released earlier this month have spooked markets, in particular growth orientated funds, as the perception is that the cheap money that they have had access to for 13 years is coming to an end.

This has hit Tech hard and other sectors have been hit due to the perceived squeeze that higher rates and inflation will have on spending power. The Fed and other global central banks have a difficult job. Controlling rampant inflation whilst at the same time ensuring that their decisions don’t harm economic recovery is a fine balancing act. I’m sure even the policy makers will be alarmed at how their comments have impacted the markets! It wouldn’t surprise me to see these comments toned down in subsequent meeting minutes.

History has shown that most falls that are severe and reactionary tend to be overdone and the subsequent bounce can be strong. Is Microsoft really worth 12% less than it was 2 weeks ago?

The FTSE100 has held up well due to its constituents being more “old economy” like Oil and Gas, Mining, Banks and Insurers. all benefitting from energy price rises/higher rate perception. It is giving a false impression to many at the moment as that’s the one that tends to be on News at Ten! Value funds are winning the race at the moment but of course they have lagged for years.

My view is if you don’t need the cash, you revert back to your original objective and risk appetite and you step back from looking at it for a few weeks. Sometimes heart rules head when you see your hard earned falling but those who react to short term noise are often the ones who lose out. My pension was down by 35% in the weeks after Covid. It had recovered all of this 6m later. It wasn’t comfortable viewing but I didn’t need or was even able to access it so kept the faith.
Good advice and more importantly good information. When I first invested my lump sum a few years ago I did a lot of reading and took what i thought were sound decisions that up until recently seemed to have paid off. I'm much more passive in terms of managing my portfolio now but recognise this isn't the time to cash in the failing funds and go chasing some other rainbow. I hadn't really got to grips with what is behind recent falls, apart from my exposure to Chinese markets which I know has some trouble with the big landlords/property being overexposed to debt at the minute.

No doubt if I sit tight it'll all get back to where I want it to be.
 

Millwallawayveteran1988

Well-Known Member
Joined
23 Sep 2010
Messages
31,580
Good advice and more importantly good information. When I first invested my lump sum a few years ago I did a lot of reading and took what i thought were sound decisions that up until recently seemed to have paid off. I'm much more passive in terms of managing my portfolio now but recognise this isn't the time to cash in the failing funds and go chasing some other rainbow. I hadn't really got to grips with what is behind recent falls, apart from my exposure to Chinese markets which I know has some trouble with the big landlords/property being overexposed to debt at the minute.

No doubt if I sit tight it'll all get back to where I want it to be.
I think the problem with investing is that when you have a year or two that give you 20% returns per annum, you can sort of come to expect that as the norm. To be honest a good return for an adventurous investor over a five to ten year period would be around 7% per annum. Less for more cautious clients. One of those years might be -10% though and that’s the bit they people don’t like.

Pre internet, providers would send statements once a year and unless you were an avid investor buying the FT everyday, you wouldn’t really know how your funds or shares were doing. There could have been a sharp sell off like this one in the year and most people wouldn’t know. Statement arrives and it’s 8% up from last years statement. Happy days, none the wiser. Now it’s daily, hourly information on your investments and it becomes a worry.
 

zerox

Well-Known Member
Joined
25 Mar 2016
Messages
280
unfortunately 7 or 8% is no good at the moment, inflation means you lost.
 

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