The General Election Thread

[Len Rum]

Some great points there.
The uk has not returned a toff govt since 1992, it would take a major sea change for that to alter especially when you factor in ukip and the disasterous policies of this govt that has led to the current state...foodbanks in britain in 2015...and people think cameron has done a good job!

Lol. Keep digging.

Can't get over Dave not winning a majority in 2010 dn?
He really should have wiped the floor with Gordon shouldn't he , given the circumstances?
But he didn't.
Same again this year?

 

[Len Rum]

I once read a description of Labour voters from a Labour MP - they are mostly unheard and unseen, but come election day they descend like a mist and then they're gone.

No main stream media outlet speaks for them, no serious newspaper gives them voice, consequently their numbers are often underestimated.

Day after day the media hammer Ed Miliband, and whether you agree with it or not and his personal rating is terrible, Labours lead wobbles, drops a point here and there but basically holds, Labour needs 36% to win and it's achievable. The Tories, however, need 40% to win, they got 36% in 2010, they're between 28% and 32% now (no party has ever increased their popularity in office) and no Tory party has had to face a UKIP strength party to its right.

The figures are not just tough for the Tories, they're appalling, it is impossible to imagine them, in any scenario, getting an overall majority, that's why Hague has gone off to write and so many Tory MPs are standing down.

The Tories couldn't win a majority against a deeply unpopular Labour government led by Gordon Brown, they had everything going for them but still fell short, this time the only thing they've got is Ed's unpopularity that's why they keep plugging away at it, but poll after poll show its not enough. Defenders of the Tories say the polls narrow as the election looms and they do, but not for the Tories.

In a recent poll 40% of the electorate say they would never vote Tory, only 25% say the same for the Labour, in the poll tightening last stretch Labour swims in a deeper and wider pool. Demographics are doing for the Tories what it's doing for the Republicans in the States, huge swathes of the country are no go areas and increasingly whole age groups, the Tories know this, that's why they're playing to their core vote, they know it's over, for them it's not storming to victory time, it's just hanging on to what they can time.

Great post but what about the situation in Scotland?
Ronnie and de niro don't worry, remember you both thought City would beat Wigan in the 2013 cup final and the 2014 quarter final.

 

[Chancy Termites]

You're making an assumption regarding Ed that he will claim there is no point in taking part if Cam doesn't. He certainly won't . These debates are crucial to Ed for him to have any chance of winning. If Cam's not there all the better , he can make big political capital in Dave running scared.
But there's no assumption about Cam. He's already took a big PR risk here of being seen to be weak.
Can you imagine if Ed had refused to participate because of the non involvement of the Greens. He would have been slagged off from pillar to post as being weak and indecisive but because it's call me Dave the pro Tory media will remain silent and fall in line.

Miliband could have chosen to join the debate with Clegg and Farage last year, why did he cop out then? Fear is the only reason that stacks up to me.

Yeah maybe Ed shouldn't have copped out last year, he's not good at taking political advantage in certain situations.
However that's in the past and this time he won't make the same mistake.
Dave has made a big political error here.

I hope you're right but remain to be convinced. It's in Labour's interest just the same as the Conservatives' to try and keep UKIP out of the debate. UKIP's support shot up after the Clegg Europe ones. If Cameron isn't present then Labour and the Lib Dems will be the ones in the firing line. Clearly Farage is a far better orator than any of the others, but it was ultimately the airing of policies won people over to UKIP.

 

[blue cigar]

Some great points there.
The uk has not returned a toff govt since 1992, it would take a major sea change for that to alter especially when you factor in ukip and the disasterous policies of this govt that has led to the current state...foodbanks in britain in 2015...and people think cameron has done a good job!

Lol. Keep digging.

We know what you want to happen,what do you think actually will happen? Im assuming you can actually discuss politics without using words like "lol"...

 

[Aphex]

An extract from the documentary maker Adam Curtis shown during Charlie Brookers 2014 Wipe.

A provoking watch...

It addresses domestic issues from about 2 minutes in

[video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcy8uLjRHPM[/video]

Watched that and it reminded me of Zeitgeist at the time. His doc is on iPlayer soon. Essential

 

[Bill]

Some great points there.
The uk has not returned a toff govt since 1992, it would take a major sea change for that to alter especially when you factor in ukip and the disasterous policies of this govt that has led to the current state...foodbanks in britain in 2015...and people think cameron has done a good job!

Lol. Keep digging.

We know what you want to happen,what do you think actually will happen? Im assuming you can actually discuss politics without using words like "lol"...

Dave will get over the line,just. If he does the they Will piss the next one. It takes more than five years to fix our broken country.and it really was broken,not points scoring here its just that that's how it was.when in 1997 where Blair got in I thought fair enough perhaps its not a bad thing after all,change is as good as a rest they say. I was worried though because having lived and worked through the last labour government I was apprehensive to say the least. Even I was shocked how badly they did.they were worse than I ever imagined. Gordon brown was a power crazed loon.I can only speak for myself and how their ridiculous policies affected my businesses and my lifestyle.my shop ,which has only ever been a busy little place, was struggling. Customers were brilliant with me and remained loyal but to be fair they too were finding it hard to make ends meet.so yes they bought carpets when needed but the basic stuff,low profit stuff,grateful though I was I used all my savings and more to keep my business afloat.I worked endlessly 7 days a week to survive. I had to otherwise my house would have gone. I also had to let staff go, one I'd known 25 years, its was horrible sitting them down and saying "sorry mate ".
All that changed in may 2010. From the very first day,I'm serious the very first day after the election I had more people through my door that I'd had in the previous week. Its been like that ever since. I still do silly hours cos believe it or nor 5 years on I haven't yet fully recovered, my house is no longer at risk and I have equity in the shop but I won't take my foot off the gas just yet. As I said in an earlier post there is work to do yet.
I'm OK now in reality as I'm old and at a pinch retire/semi retire and trundle along,I won't do that but I could. The people I worry about if we returned a labour government is the youngsters, the people who may have just started a business, if fact anyone just starting out in life.
I couldn't give a flying fuck who is in power,I think when people say " they are all the same" they are not far wrong but going what I have experienced every single time labour get in I'm going with Dave, yes he has flaws, just less than the other lot.
My family and my business is all I care about and want the best for them.whoever can help with that gets my vote.

Sorry BG for going on :)

 

[SWP's back]

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/61234/general-election-2015-where-do-things-stand-with-6-months-to-go" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/61234 ... nths-to-go</a>

Can the Tories win an overall majority?.....

No. Amid all the uncertainties surrounding this election, there is one safe bet – that the Conservatives will not gain a majority, i.e. win 326 seats. They didn’t manage it last time and that was before the rise of Ukip. Recent opinion polls suggest they will be lucky to win 260 seats.

So, will Cameron form a second coalition with the Lib Dems?....

At the moment, Cameron’s chances don’t look good. Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling in marginal seats suggests Labour are on course to be the biggest party.

not sure there are enough workshy and cadgers in britain for this to happen.

President Mitt Romney thought the same in the States.

Pah. The Democrats are further to the right than the Tories.

 

[SWP's back]

I once read a description of Labour voters from a Labour MP - they are mostly unheard and unseen, but come election day they descend like a mist and then they're gone.

No main stream media outlet speaks for them, no serious newspaper gives them voice, consequently their numbers are often underestimated.

Day after day the media hammer Ed Miliband, and whether you agree with it or not and his personal rating is terrible, Labours lead wobbles, drops a point here and there but basically holds, Labour needs 36% to win and it's achievable. The Tories, however, need 40% to win, they got 36% in 2010, they're between 28% and 32% now (no party has ever increased their popularity in office) and no Tory party has had to face a UKIP strength party to its right.

The figures are not just tough for the Tories, they're appalling, it is impossible to imagine them, in any scenario, getting an overall majority, that's why Hague has gone off to write and so many Tory MPs are standing down.

The Tories couldn't win a majority against a deeply unpopular Labour government led by Gordon Brown, they had everything going for them but still fell short, this time the only thing they've got is Ed's unpopularity that's why they keep plugging away at it, but poll after poll show its not enough. Defenders of the Tories say the polls narrow as the election looms and they do, but not for the Tories.

In a recent poll 40% of the electorate say they would never vote Tory, only 25% say the same for the Labour, in the poll tightening last stretch Labour swims in a deeper and wider pool. Demographics are doing for the Tories what it's doing for the Republicans in the States, huge swathes of the country are no go areas and increasingly whole age groups, the Tories know this, that's why they're playing to their core vote, they know it's over, for them it's not storming to victory time, it's just hanging on to what they can time.

Utter bollocks and the left never shut up. They are far fewer and far louder than the right.

Just look at comedians; how many are right wing?

Exactly.

The exact opposite of just about everything you shat out in the above post is true.

 

[SWP's back]

Some great points there.
The uk has not returned a toff govt since 1992, it would take a major sea change for that to alter especially when you factor in ukip and the disasterous policies of this govt that has led to the current state...foodbanks in britain in 2015...and people think cameron has done a good job!

He is for those that work.

 

[smudgedj]

Some great points there.
The uk has not returned a toff govt since 1992, it would take a major sea change for that to alter especially when you factor in ukip and the disasterous policies of this govt that has led to the current state...foodbanks in britain in 2015...and people think cameron has done a good job!

Lol. Keep digging.

We know what you want to happen,what do you think actually will happen? Im assuming you can actually discuss politics without using words like "lol"...

One man's lol is another man's racist.