The General Election Thread

[M18CTID]

I've been keeping an eye on this as UKIP could have possibly decided the election. It seems that every new UKIP voter, about 1 in 4 come from Labour and 3 in 4 come from the Tories.

The big googly that could be thrown today is if UKIP had a "shy" voting public like the Tories did in 1992 or they had in the recent by-elections. Seosa posted the idea with the backup, but essentially whilst 15% of the popular vote wins them a Bullseye pen and a choc-ice, if you raise that by a few percentage points then it takes them over the line in various marginals and they could take anywhere up to 20 seats.

This of course would guarantee a Labour victory.

Where are you getting this 1 in 4 and 3 in 4 from?

Looks to me like the UKIPs rise coincided with Labour dropping, not the Tories

There's been a bunch of polls on it directly. Good article on it here:

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.may2015.com/ideas/why-winning-back-ukippers-wont-necessarily-save-the-tories/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.may2015.com/ideas/why-winnin ... he-tories/</a>

Seems I got the figure wrong - 3 out of 4 UKIP voters would prefer Con as their second choice and 1/4 Lab. The actual source where they are coming from is 15% Labour, 21% Lib Dem and 63% Tory. That's where I got confused with the 3 out of 4; it's 3 out of 5 are ex-Tory voters but 3 out of 4 would vote Tory in this election as their second choice.

So prospective UKIP voters that are having second thoughts are far more likely to vote Tory than any other party. That's interesting because if enough of them bail out of voting UKIP, it could give the Tories an overall majority after all

 

[Damocles]

So prospective UKIP voters that are having second thoughts are far more likely to vote Tory than any other party. That's interesting because if enough of them bail out of voting UKIP, it could give the Tories an overall majority after all

Even Only if every UKIP voter voted Tory then they would get a majority. It's outlined in the article above.

Only if UKIP were wiped to zero, which delivers a Tory gain of 16, Labour loss of 11 and Lib Dem/Ukip loss of 5 relative to Ashcroft’s polls, does the Tory bloc win, and then by a slim 325-319 margin.

EDIT: Keep fucking up simple posts today

 

[Blue Maverick]

Labour for me just thought UKIP stance about blaming everything on immigration was pathetic. Having seen the fire service and other emergency services decimated under Dave I hope those fuckers rot in hell and don't get me started on pensions. Yes it's selfish but it's what concerns me and how the Tories have fucked us over all in it together bollocks.

 

[law74]

tory for me, I grew up in the 70's and saw labour financially and morally destroy my country and the damage they did between 97 and 2010 doesn't bear thinking about.
I not camerons biggest fan, I do feel he is weak at times, maybe that's working in a coalition, but please not miliband and labour in cahoots with the snp, sinn fein et al, that does frighten the shit out of me

I can put your mind at ease then.
Sinn Fein will NOT be part of the new Government.
Though a minority Labour government is without doubt my preferred option with the SNP keeping them honest with regards to redistribution of the nations wealth from the few to the many

 

[Bill]

Why shouldn't they get a bonus if they make their shareholders money?

That chip is weighing your shoulder down isn't it.

And yes I'm ok jack and working fucking hard for it.

No parasitical financial "adviser" should earn more than a nurse.

Envy politics outlined to perfection.
No footballer should get paid more than a doctor.
No comedian should be worth 9million,
Nobody should earn what I think is too much.
Etc; etc;

love this.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Done, voted Conservative.

 

[dickie davies]

Can we have an exit poll as a sticky at the top of off topic, to see where Bluemoon compares vs the British public
Obviously I know that the SNP will be hugely under represented and will probably only receive one vote by that Scottish nut case that posts on here

 

[BigOscar]

Voted for the Green Party, just for the irony of wasting paper voting for them. Hope they appreciate it.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Voted UKIP.

Most of those I know who usually/always vote Labour have also moved to UKIP this time around.

I voted UKIP at 7am on the dot.

Round here it is a safe Tory seat so I voted UKIP to show support for a referendum on membership of the Common Market/ EEC/EC/EU.

Tony Benn will have been smiling down on me as I voted as he was not a fan of the EU. He knew it was a tool of big business and no friend of the ordinary working person.

I'm voting UKIP later as is the Mrs and another 5 in the family,

That reminds me to point out that revealing how another person (other than yourself) intends to or has voted is a criminal offence under S66 of the Representation of the Peoples Act.

The Old Bill are on their way to Underpants Towers as we speak.

 

[DelToro]

Done, voted Conservative.

Liar.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

I voted UKIP at 7am on the dot.

Round here it is a safe Tory seat so I voted UKIP to show support for a referendum on membership of the Common Market/ EEC/EC/EU.

Tony Benn will have been smiling down on me as I voted as he was not a fan of the EU. He knew it was a tool of big business and no friend of the ordinary working person.

I'm voting UKIP later as is the Mrs and another 5 in the family,

That reminds me to point out that revealing how another person (other than yourself) intends to or has voted is a criminal offence under S66 of the Representation of the Peoples Act.

The Old Bill are on their way to Underpants Towers as we speak.

Arrested for excessive Kipping.

 

[Lucky13]

I'm voting UKIP later as is the Mrs and another 5 in the family,

That reminds me to point out that revealing how another person (other than yourself) intends to or has voted is a criminal offence under S66 of the Representation of the Peoples Act.

The Old Bill are on their way to Underpants Towers as we speak.

Arrested for excessive Kipping.

Farage saying he won't stand again if he doesn't get in.

 

[Len Rum]

Done, voted Conservative.

Do I not believe that.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Done, voted Conservative.

Liar.

[video]http://youtu.be/G_UXvcr22rM[/video]

 

[DelToro]

Done, voted Conservative.

Liar.

[video]http://youtu.be/G_UXvcr22rM[/video]

Well I hope you're lying Gaylord otherwise your a golf playing Tory and I cannot think of a worse combination than that other than an Australian who plays cricket for Yorkshire.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Done, voted Conservative.

Liar.

[video]http://youtu.be/G_UXvcr22rM[/video]

Good song that, the anthem for all those who played away on a regular basis.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Tory Mp's = Bunch of horrible utter cunts, double dose of Ebola for everylast one of the fuckers would be fine by me, treble dose for Cameron, Gideon and that uber albino **** Johnson.......

 

[DelToro]

Ashcroft says that the polls are showing a late swing to Labour.

If that is the case and if the SNP stick by their pledge to keep the Tories out of government it would appear that the Tories would not have enough support to form a coalition government.

But a subsequent Labour led coalition may be too fragile to survive.

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

We usually vote for the "Cons" but even though it doesn't affect me or mine, the bedroom tax needs to be abolished its unfair to a section of our society, so just like the poll tax before it I voted for Labour today, (protest vote) the other half voted UKIP

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Tory Mp's = Bunch of horrible utter c**ts, double dose of Ebola for everylast one of the fuckers would be fine by me, treble dose for Cameron, Gideon and that uber albino c**t Johnson.......

Let me hazard a wild guess here. You won't be voting Conservative?