Lest we forget:Fair enough, I can admit I have misinterpreted, the Treasury provides the estimate. But then in that case, I’m inclined to wait for the OBR’s review to be complete before declaring it outright bollocks.
I think there are two questions here that get conflated - one is does the gap exist? My suspicion is that yes it does, and it is at least in part made up of differences in policy on things like public sector pay - things that were predictable.
The second question is whether there is impropriety in the March forecast, things like wedging in unfunded commitments. I think that is the bit that we won’t know until the investigation is complete.
There is a third question around whether the gap actually means anything in practice (it is based on guidelines, it’s not as if the economy suddenly crashes if a spending limit gets breached). But I think that’s an entirely different matter.
(Last March):
After placing a 2p national insurance cut at the centre of Wednesday’s budget – funded through higher government borrowing, stealth tax rises and a squeeze on public spending to come after polling day – Sunak's chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, said the Tories’ ambition was to scrap the tax on workers entirely.
(£10bn a year, that 2p cut)