The Labour Government

[hampshireblue]

A bit more good news in that average 5 year fixed mortgages have dropped below 5% for the first tims since 2023. I know it won't matter to lots on here but it's another glimmer of hope for many.

 

[BlueHammer85]

A bit more good news in that average 5 year fixed mortgages have dropped below 5% for the first tims since 2023. I know it won't matter to lots on here but it's another glimmer of hope for many.

It's good news but inflation figures high in week it's unlikely to drop any further.

 

[stonerblue]

He would care if a house next to him was commandeered by the council to put up a family of Roma gypsies or converted to a HMO for the lads in the Epping hotel. His open borders do not extend to his road.

You still banging on about your hypothetical scenario which you've seemingly now made into a fact?

 

[BobKowalski]

No that's not what I meant and it's ridiculous to even think I did, not as factual as in not everyone thinks its true or is a 'time bomb'. So a fact may be true to you absolutely but not others, anyhow pedantry isn't something I can be arsed with neither can I be with you just repeating

Tech may save us(you obviously never saw irreversible being used to discuss climate change, you don't even seem to understand damage done, you only seem concerned about jobs and gdp) or let's see and Whaddy gonna do is all you've got.

I'm really not interested in you telling me you're not arsed over and over again. There really is no need to carry on this discussion.

Go and check your shares or pension performance, it's seems to be where you're at.

Then kindly link to articles demonstrating it is not true and that we don’t face a demographic problem or that fertility rates worldwide are not trending below the replacement rate.

 

[ganganvince]

Then kindly link to articles demonstrating it is not true and that we don’t face a demographic problem or that fertility rates worldwide are not trending below the replacement rate.

Birth rates still higher than croak rates at the moment worldwide.

 

[Hgblue2]

The depth of financial shit this country is in is more than alarming. No point in blaming any one party, but I’m fucked as to how any party is going to get us out of it.

The government needs to stop spending money that we haven't got, it really isn't that complicated.

 

[hampshireblue]

The government needs to stop spending money that we haven't got, it really isn't that complicated.

Simple. Start deciding what you're prepared to do without then. Report back on what it is you're going to give up.

 

[hcblue95]

The government needs to stop spending money that we haven't got, it really isn't that complicated.

How would you go about doing that? Where would you make the cuts?

 

[Hgblue2]

Simple. Start deciding what you're prepared to do without then.

Exactly, the conversation needs to move from what we want to what we can afford. We've maxed out the credit card and this day was always going to come.

 

[Gray]

A bit more good news in that average 5 year fixed mortgages have dropped below 5% for the first tims since 2023. I know it won't matter to lots on here but it's another glimmer of hope for many.

It’s swings and roundabouts. Retired folk like me can not get decent interest rates to invest our money. Also the freeze in personal allowances means I now have a K code for my private pension.

 

[BobKowalski]

Birth rates still higher than croak rates at the moment worldwide.
View attachment 166923

Africa has the highest birth rate at around 4. Europe, Asia, North and South America below 2 and Oceania at just above 2. The replacement rate is 2.1.

Births per woman have dropped from 5 to 2.25 since 1950 and Africa is slowly trending downwards in common with the rest of the world. The projection is world population to decline by the turn of the century.

The UK birth rate from 2023 data is 1.44 which is below the replacement rate. The maths seems pretty clear. If there is data to prove otherwise then I would be interested to read it.

 

[hampshireblue]

It’s swings and roundabouts. Retired folk like me can not get decent interest rates to invest our money. Also the freeze in personal allowances means I now have a K code for my private pension.

Cash ISAs @ 4.2%? Not bad.

Your pension was tax free going in so nothing wrong with paying some tax after you've had the 25% tax free cash.

 

[hampshireblue]

Exactly, the conversation needs to move from what we want to what we can afford. We've maxed out the credit card and this day was always going to come.

So you made the statement. Where would you start on cuts? NHS, education, police, salaries, pensions? And actually we are about average across developed nations when it comes to government debt.

 

[mosssideblue]

The government needs to stop spending money that we haven't got, it really isn't that complicated.

What should they stop spending on?

 

[BobKowalski]

The government needs to stop spending money that we haven't got, it really isn't that complicated.

All Governments run debt. We have had higher debt to GDP ratios in the past. Over 150% in the 1920’s and 30’s. Over 200% after WWII. Our present position is not insurmountable.

300 years of UK public finance data

articles.obr.uk

 

[The perfect fumble]

All Governments run debt. We have had higher debt to GDP ratios in the past. Over 150% in the 1920’s and 30’s. Over 200% after WWII. Our present position is not insurmountable.

300 years of UK public finance data

articles.obr.uk

Just over 100 years ago we were broke, British Empire forces had lost close to a million men in the First World War, on top of that the Spanish Flu pandemic killed 250,000 in the UK and if you throw in the Great Depression and the Second World War, I think it's fair to say we've seen worse times than we're experiencing now.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

111,000 asylum claims in one year is ridiculous and completely unsustainable. The majority coming across illegally in small boats and lots of them not genuine refugees.

The government need to get a grip of this. I think the general public has had enough of it and in particular feeling like we have no control of our borders

I dred to think the backlash when they aren’t allowed to use hotels and instead use private homes or council homes to house them.

 

[hampshireblue]

111,000 asylum claims in one year is ridiculous and completely unsustainable. The majority coming across illegally in small boats and lots of them not genuine refugees.

The government need to get a grip of this. I think the general public has had enough of it and in particular feeling like we have no control of our borders

I dred to think the backlash when they aren’t allowed to use hotels and instead use private homes or council homes to house them.

So for accuracy there were 49000 irregular arrivals in the period you refer to. 49000 is not a majority of 111000. It is the processing of them that determines whether they are genuine refugees.

You're right though that they do need to get a grip. What do you suggest within the boundaries of international law?

 

[Hgblue2]

All Governments run debt. We have had higher debt to GDP ratios in the past. Over 150% in the 1920’s and 30’s. Over 200% after WWII. Our present position is not insurmountable.

300 years of UK public finance data

articles.obr.uk

So after two world wars we had higher debt? That's not particularly reassuring. Most people would accept that debt to finance fighting an existential threat to the nation is regrettable, but understandable.

This idea that government spending during peacetime, can and should be financed by debt is why we're in the situation we're in today. Big mistake giving politicians a blank cheque.

I don't agree that our debt levels are no big deal, in fact they are unsustainable, we are reaching the point where we are running out of buyers for our debt, which sends the rate higher, costing the government even more to service.

This is what's known as a debt doom loop, as the government borrows more, the bond markets require higher rates, which costs the government more, which means the government borrows more, etc, etc.

We've already reached the stage where servicing debt is a significant portion of government spending and this gets worse until we address this issue by cutting spending. If we don't do this voluntarily we're looking at a debt crisis eventually and then we're in for a world of pain.

 

[BobKowalski]

So after two world wars we had higher debt? That's not particularly reassuring. Most people would accept that debt to finance fighting an existential threat to the nation is regrettable, but understandable.

This idea that government spending during peacetime, can and should be financed by debt is why we're in the situation we're in today. Big mistake giving politicians a blank cheque.

I don't agree that our debt levels are no big deal, in fact they are unsustainable, we are reaching the point where we are running out of buyers for our debt, which sends the rate higher, costing the government even more to service.

This is what's known as a debt doom loop, as the government borrows more, the bond markets require higher rates, which costs the government more, which means the government borrows more, etc, etc.

We've already reached the stage where servicing debt is a significant portion of government spending and this gets worse until we address this issue by cutting spending. If we don't do this voluntarily we're looking at a debt crisis eventually and then we're in for a world of pain.

Yes. We’ve also had the financial crash in 2008, a major disruption to our industrial and foreign policy with Brexit followed by political instability in its wake, a global pandemic and a major war in Europe. Events have a major impact on our finances. Right now there is an unnecessary trade war, shifting of global supply lines and a US administration imposing a cost of living crisis on their own people via a sales tax and impacting our exports.

What the UK and the world needs is a period of calm stability. Instead we have people trying to burn everything down with zero clue on how to replace it. Make politics boring again, give business stability and certainty on what the trading environment will look like a year or two years from now and you will be pleasantly surprised.

If we keep encouraging or voting for chaos all you will get is more chaos.