Fascinating. (Seriously.) But (assuming I heard right) it was said that the food inflation rate was partly due to a 15% rise in the price of milk (presumably year on year).Underlying commodity prices routinely fluctuate and rarely impact shop prices and certainly a price decrease for December will not given we are not selling December milk yet. Bulk buyers will lock in their costs through derivative contracts to provide price certainty, or to give it its correct term they will hedge their price risk - for example British Airways will know the cost of aviation fuel because they will have brought aviation fuel futures for the next 9-12 months. This means they can sell you a plane ticket for your holiday next year at a fixed cost. This is how the world works. There are exceptions to that and they are always in the negative, petrol for example always “reacts” to price increase shocks instantly but slower to reduce on price declines… now that is profiteering!!
Official figures from the government show wholesale milk prices have gone up 5.6% September YoY (the last official figures). Retail milk prices have gone up 4.5%, I gave the average price chart an eyeball and it looks likely retailers are absorbing more cost without fully passing it on to consumers (on average). Final full year figures will need to be provided for a complete assessment.
Even allowing for hedging, the price should surely be coming down as there's a bit of a milk glut (UK and globally).
